Ranking Josh Allen among the QBs of the AFC before 2022 NFL Draft

12. Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)

Arguably the most polarizing player on the field on this list, Tua is coming off an interesting year two. In 12 starts, the Alabama product improved his TD percentage (4.1%), passer rating (90.1), QBR (49.7), completion percentage (67.8%), passing yards per game (201.1) and yards per attempt (6.8), all while cutting down on his sack rate (4.9%) from his rookie year.

But even in his improvements, Tua still doesn’t scream “franchise QB” as of yet. His passer rating ranked 19th in the league, his QBR was slotted at 18th, and his yards per attempt were tied for 23rd in the NFL.

The advanced numbers are just as unpredictable. On one hand, his accuracy is off the charts. Tua’s 80.1% for on-target throws tied for fourth highest in the league and his 16.3% poor-throws rate ranked 10th in the league. But he also had the fourth-lowest intended air yards per attempt (7.0) and he tied for the ninth-fewest completed air yards per attempt (5.5).

What do those numbers mean? They just show how Tua is a guy who can get the ball out of his hand quickly underneath, but his biggest limitation may be attacking downfield. So how do you combat that? Build an arsenal of pieces around him that allows him to be a distributor.

People forget that Tua was at his best when he was essentially playing point guard for the Crimson Tide. Whether it was Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Snith, Jaylen Waddle, or Henry Ruggs III, Tua earned his status as the No. 5 overall pick by spreading the ball around to a deep group of targets.

Adding Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson out wide, Chase Edmunds and Raheem Mostert in the backfield, and Terron Armstead at LT to a lineup that already included Waddle and Mike Gesicki, there’s no reason to believe Tua won’t have an even bigger jump in year three. Some may say it seems odd that you’d pair arguably the league’s top deep threat in Hill with one of the weaker-armed QBs in the game, but I’d note that Hill fits Mike McDaniel’s system perfectly as a guy who can be moved all around the field like a chess piece.

Hill may not be Deebo Samuel, but he brings a different element to the role that the South Carolina product had last season.

Tua also showed he can captain a ship as long as it has the right crew with him. Just look how he helped the team win six straight games after a 1-7 start.

So is Tua the great prospect many predicted he’d be at ‘Bama? Not quite. Is he nearly as bad as the general public perceives him to be? I don’t think so. He’s just shown to be average. But with better weapons, an improved offensive line up front, as well as being nearly three years removed from dislocating and fracturing his hip once the 2022 season kicks off, he has all the ingredients to show more improvement.

One last thing of note, though, is the health factor with Tua. Dating back to his final season with the Crimson Tide, Tua has missed eight games due to injury in that span.