Ranking Josh Allen among the QBs of the AFC before 2022 NFL Draft

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports)
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports) /
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Buffalo Bills
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports) /

15. Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)

It was a disastrous rookie campaign for the Clemson product, but it was not all on him. Lawrence had to deal with the loss of former fellow Tiger Travis Etienne, James Robinson not getting the ball enough, a mediocre skill group, and how could we ever forget, the fast times with Urban Meyer.

Tying Matthew Stafford with a league-high 17 INTs, Lawrence’s 12 TD passes were also the least of any QB that started 14 or more games last season. Lawrence also ranked 30th in the game in QBR (33.5) and 31st in passer rating (71.9).

It gets worse when you look deeper. Lawrence’s 119 poor throws were second-most in the league behind Tom Brady, as he also ranked fourth-worst in the league with his 20.5% poor throws rate. His on-target throw rate was even worse, as his 71.3% rate was only above Zach Wilson’s for worst in the NFL.

But as I noted, it was not all his fault. With 33 drops, Lawrence’s weapons totaled the third-most drops throughout the league last season. And this is no slight at Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault Jr., Dan Arnold, or Jamal Agnew (who is actually a defensive back), but Lawrence did not have “the Greatest Show on Turf” with him.

The 2018 National Champion did end the season on a positive note, though. In the 2021 finale, Lawrence and the Jags upended the Colts, dashing their playoff hopes away in an instant. He was able to notch his highest passer rating of the season (111.8)  as he went 23 of 32 for 223 passing yards and two TD passes.

There were other moments mixed in there as well, like the Thursday Night game in Cincinnati, or topping the Dolphins in London. And adding pieces like Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Brandon Scherff, Zay Jones, and the arrival of Super Bowl-winning head coach Doug Pederson, more of those moments should come out.

But Lawrence has to get there first. Some other No. 1 pick QBs have struggled out of the gate, like John Elway or Peyton Manning did early on. Some, however, never come into form. Do Tim Couch and David Carr ring a bell?