Buffalo Bills: Stefon Diggs will regress statistically in 2021, and why that is okay

Stefon Diggs likely won’t match his 2020 production with the Buffalo Bills

It was well advertised that Stefon Diggs was a very good wide receiver when the Buffalo Bills acquired him last offseason. However, not many expected Diggs to be named with some of the elite at the season’s end. After finishing first in both receptions and yards Diggs supplanted his name amongst that group of elite receivers in the league.

The Bills fell two wins short of being champions and this year they enter the season with one goal on their mind. A Super Bowl. Part of getting to the big game will be repeating and improving on a fantastic offensive season in 2020. While Stefon Diggs is a major factor, do not be surprised if he does not match his production in 2020.

Not only will Diggs have a tough time replicating his production in 2021 because the Buffalo Bills added some more weapons on offense but also because he will be a focal point of defenses as they try and stop the All-Pro. Diggs is the clear number one guy in Buffalo and as soon as teams start to prepare he is the guy they try and stop. Josh Allen’s favorite target, Diggs had 50 more targets than Cole Beasley, the next best receiver on the Bills.

Just because Diggs will have a tougher time reaching those 2020 numbers does not mean he is incapable. Diggs is the best route runner in the league and seems to put in more work on his craft in the offseason than other players. Diggs will likely still lead the Buffalo Bills in receptions and yards in 2021 but he will be much closer to 1,000 yards than the 1,500-yard mark he hit last season.

In addition to the new weapons Josh Allen has in free agent additions Emmanuel Sander and Jacob Hollister, as well as Isaiah Hodgins returning from injury, Buffalo will look to develop the ground game into at least above average. Last season Buffalo struggled to run the ball consistently being serviceable at best throughout key points in the season. While the personnel has not changed outside of the addition of Matt Breida, the Buffalo Bills would like to see much more consistency in the running game.

Why Diggs not matching his 2020 is okay for the Buffalo Bills

If Diggs does not match his 2020 production you would hope two things happened. First, the run game has improved vastly and the Bills have a much more balanced approach to each game instead of being so pass-heavy. That not only would affect Diggs but all the receivers plus Josh Allen’s stats. Football is about wins, not stats so overall that scenario would improve the Bills offense.

Buffalo did nothing major to bolster their run game but there is a clear emphasis in the front office and coaching staff to improve that area of the offense. Josh Allen had seven games in 2020 where he threw the ball over 40 times in one game. While Allen is one of the best playmakers in the league, Sean McDermott would probably like him to be in the 25-35 attempts per game. That would mean that Buffalo is running the ball just as most as throwing.

The second would be that Buffalo is able to rely on Diggs less using players like Gabriel Davis, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox, and Emmanuel Sanders nearly as much as they do Diggs. While this would hurt Diggs numbers a more balanced passing attack would cause problems for defenses who would have to pick and choose who they want to try and stop.

This was something Buffalo wanted to do last season but the injuries to John Brown made that difficult for Buffalo. Beasley and Diggs proved to be an elite duo while Davis was a very good third option. This season, the addition of Sanders gives Buffalo a four-headed monster that will be near impossible for defenses to cover.

Diggs not producing as much for Buffalo is not necessarily a problem for the team. While he will still give the big wide receiver numbers like 100 receptions and 1,000 yards expect him to take a slight step back due to Buffalo’s more balanced approach and embarrassment of riches at the wide receiver position.