Buffalo Bills should wait on a contract extension for Josh Allen

The talk this offseason in the NFL has been around quarterbacks and three starting QBs have already been traded with Matthew Stafford heading to the Los Angeles Rams, Jared Goff to the Detroit Lions and the latest being Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts. The Buffalo Bills fortunately don’t have any question about who their starting quarterback is next season but they do have a big decision this offseason.

The first decision, which isn’t very hard to make, is whether or not the team should pick up the fifth-year option for Josh Allen. This would keep him in Buffalo through the 2022 season and there is no question that will be done.

The bigger question though is whether or not Brandon Beane should sign Allen to a long-term contract extension. This is certainly top of mind for the Bills general manager and in an offseason with limited cap space, he has already stated he may need to get creative to get a deal done.

While it appears there is a chance to get a deal done, I believe Brandon Beane should wait at least one more season before beginning to discuss a contract extension with Josh Allen.

Over the past few seasons, there has been a growing trend within the league to sign quarterbacks to big contract extensions after their third season in the league. This started in 2017 when the Raiders signed Derek Carr to a 5-year, $125 million contract. Then in 2019, after the Rams and Eagles picked up fifth-year options on Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, they both signed four year deals with Wentz receiving $134 million and Goff receiving $128 million.

Then this past offseason, DeShaun Watson received a 5-year deal worth $177.5 million after his third season. Then of course there was Patrick Mahomes, who received the biggest contract in NFL history with a 10-year contract worth $450 million.

The reason the Buffalo Bills and Brandon Beane need to be cautious is that a case can be made that only the Patrick Mahomes deal has worked out for the team. Both Jared Goff and Carson Wentz have been traded, leaving behind massive amounts of dead cap for the franchise. Meanwhile, Derek Carr has often been brought up in trade rumors and Watson wants out of Houston (which would create a significant amount of dead cap for them if he is traded).

This isn’t to say that I don’t believe that Josh Allen hasn’t earned a contract extension after his play this past season. He had a breakout season with over 4,500 passing yards, 46 total touchdowns, finished second in MVP voting, and was arguably the biggest reason they reached the AFC Championship Game.

This also isn’t to say that Josh Allen shouldn’t be in future plans for this franchise or that I believe he will regress. However, with him under contract for the next two years there is no reason to rush into a contract extension not knowing if last season was a one-time thing. If he doesn’t continue to play at this level, it could significantly hinder what the team does in future years with the amount of dead cap that would result in a trade or release of Josh Allen.

On the other side, there certainly is a risk of not signing him this offseason because contracts for quarterbacks continue to skyrocket. However, at this point, there really isn’t a quarterback expected to receive a major deal in the next year that resets the market outside of maybe Dak Prescott.

If the Buffalo Bills were to wait, it would likely cost them a little more to keep Josh Allen but if he plays at the same level next year, it gives them a bigger sample size to feel confident that he is the answer at quarterback for years to come.