Get Out to an Early Lead
This idea has been a trend for a lot of the Buffalo Bills most recent matchups. The main reason for this is the clear disparity in the Bills stoutness in defending the pass compared to defending the run. While there wasn’t much of a disparity last week against the Colts, this matchup against the Ravens is slightly different. The Ravens offense also has a clear disparity in how they attack defenses, ranking 32nd in passing yards this season and 1st in rushing yards.
With that being said, the Bills defense has been at its worst this season when they get gashed in the running game. Although getting out to a lead against the Ravens won’t completely take this option away from the Ravens, it could certainly mitigate the impact in this Divisional Round matchup.
The Ravens are similar to the 49ers we played earlier in the regular season and how the Colts played last week, the rushing game is the heart of their offensive identity. The Ravens won’t completely abandon the run until the score and the game clock make it a dumb play call to run the football.
Although this Buffalo Bills team is built to in multiple ways because of the offensive success, the way the defense has played this year, it seems apparent that winning is more likely when the Bills hold the lead. This is primarily because of the play of the Buffalo secondary this season that is ranked 13th in total passing yards allowed this regular season, but more importantly, they rank ninth in net yards allowed per pass attempt. This exemplifies how difficult it is for opposing offenses to move the ball down the field quickly against this Bills defense through the air.