Let’s take a closer look at the odds, lines, and trends for the Buffalo Bills in Week 9 against the Seattle Seahawks.
For the first time, the Buffalo Bills beat the New England Patriots during the Sean McDermott era. In doing so the game cashed the over of 41 points while failing to cover the -4 spread. That brings the season total to 6-2 for the overs and 3-5 covering the spread.
This week the Bills have to deal with the high-powered passing attack of the Seattle Seahawks while being underdogs. With the sportsbooks across the country locking in on spreads and totals for the NFL Week 9, the Action Network is reporting the spread to be +3 with the over set at 55 points currently.
Let’s analyze this week’s numbers and see how similar numbers have played out over the past few seasons versus the Seahawks.
Buffalo Bills’ trends under head coach Sean McDermott
The Bills have been home dogs 12 times since 2017, but unfortunately, they have only three wins to show for it. Those wins came during the 2017 and 2018 seasons with the team so far winless last year and this season as home dogs. Slightly better, the team is 4-7-1 in covering the spread.
Last season’s finale against the New York Jets was the smallest spread at +1.5 which they failed to cover. The Patriots in 2018 saw the biggest spread of +13 which also failed to cover.
Cashing the over also has a losing record at 5-7. This season’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs was the only time it was above 50 with the game unable to reach its total. In fact, the last 4 games have all failed to cash the over.
The Bills as underdogs in general are 15-14-3 in covering the spread with only 10 overs cashing since 2017.
Seattle Seahawks’ trends with Russell Wilson
Since 2012 with Russell Wilson under center the Seahawks have been road favorites 39 times while winning 25 of those. Covering the spread however, is only 18-18-3. Sunday’s spread of -3 has occurred three other times with no success as they are 0-2-1 covering that spread. Should the spread drop below a field goal before kickoff then history shows the ‘hawks are 4-4 in covering a spread under three points.
The overs in those 39 games is much worse at 16-23. Earlier this season against the Miami Dolphins the over was also at 55 which did not cash in a 31-23 win. Also this season’s game against the Arizona Cardinals the total was at 55.5 which did cash with 71 total points.
Of those 39 games, 29 of those were at 1 p.m. ET kickoff with the spread being covered 11-15-3 and the over cashed 13 times.