Find out what Adam Weinrib, site expert at Musket Fire, has to say about the New England Patriots’ Week 8 matchup with the Buffalo Bills.
The New England Patriots are in a bit of uncharted territory as they are coming in on a three-game losing streak and don’t look like the dominant franchise they have been for two decades. Subsequently, this has put the Buffalo Bills in uncharted territory as they appear to be the division front runner at 5-2.
I have a chance to talk with Adam Weinrib, site expert at Musket Fire, to get the Patriots perspective heading into this key Week 8 matchup.
Question 1: This is a bit of uncharted territory for the Patriots as they have now lost three games in a row. What do you think has been the biggest issue and where do you think fans are on the panic meter about this team?
It’s bad, Brandon. It’s bad. The biggest issue by far (though the defense has under-performed and Bill Belichick is losing the supremely unfair weekly battle for headlines to Tom Brady) has been the passing game, the lack of weapons therein, and the regression of Cam Newton. Fans are rightly panicking, but they’re also…a little indifferent if that makes sense?
It’s been a long string of monstrously successful campaigns in New England, and a large portion of the fan base appears to be vacillating between being resigned to this season looking very different AND yearning for the good old days. After all, when a massive number of defensive opt-outs started the year, most fans got pessimistic.
Question 2: Cam Newton got off to a great start to the year but has struggled recently. What do you think has changed with Newton and this offense?
Without Newton for Week 4 due to his COVID diagnosis, Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham struggled to carry the load against the Chiefs (predictable), a game the defense kept New England afloat in. The next week was marred by practice cancellations and various weirdness, so it wasn’t jaw-on-the-floor stunning when the Broncos beat the Pats, either.
But in Week 7, the team had their full complement of weapons and a rested offense against the 49ers at home and got bullied from the opening whistle. Without Julian Edelman (who hasn’t been healthy all season) and after another questionable hit on N’Keal Harry, the cupboard is bare at wideout, with Damiere Byrd making the strongest impression.
Newton has looked completely different since Week 2 as well, and whether it’s the lingering effects of his diagnosis or a mysterious hand injury suffered during the Broncos game (people are talking!), he’s a weak spot, too. Newton has assured us time and again that the personnel IS in that locker room to make this offense successful, but we’re not so sure, and it’s not happening if the QB isn’t near-elite, or at least willing to throw downfield.
Question 3: The defense also has taken a step backward which is a bit surprising for a Bill Belichick-led team. Do you think this is a scheme issue or were the losses of Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton bigger than initially thought?
I think it’s mostly on the losses, which number far beyond Van Noy, Collins, and Shelton. Dont’a Hightower isn’t here. Patrick Chung is at home. The Pats also had to deal with a league-high number of opt-outs prior to the season, and Hightower is an absolute killer.
Couple that with Chase Winovich‘s “breakout” season being a bit underwhelming and Josh Uche not being used so much, and you have a Belichick defense that isn’t anywhere close to his usual level (and might even have him considering offloading Stephon Gilmore‘s salary…).
Question 4: What do you think will be the one key to this game and do you have a final score prediction?
This is literally it. The one game that separates the Patriots from tanking. If they win, they’ll put pressure on the Bills in the second half. If they lose, all bets are off for the trade deadline.
This is a supremely average Pats team, but I do expect them to show up and give the Buffalo Bills a scare — they simply can’t go down like this. And, as weird as it sounds, losing Edelman will be a plus.
That, for me, is the key to this game. Perhaps they’ll stop fooling themselves and let Newton go back to the caretaker role he succeeded in during Week 1 against Miami. Let Damien Harris play a major role, give Rex Burkhead and James White their third-down runs, and open up the running game for the QB. 21-18, Patriots.