Buffalo Bills: Week 1 odds, lines and trends vs NY Jets
By Jason Mattis
This is a breakdown of the trends around the odds for the Buffalo Bills heading into their Week 1 matchup against the New York Jets.
The NFL season is upon us and with that sportsbooks across the country have revealed the odds for week one. According to The Action Network, the Buffalo Bills are favored by six points while the Over/Under is set at 39.5. Let’s analyze those numbers and see how similar numbers have played out over the past few seasons versus the Jets.
Buffalo Bills trends over the last 5 years
Over the past five years, the Buffalo Bills are 0-4 when favored by seven points or less. In two of those losses, they lost by double digits. In 2017 though, the Buffalo Bills were able to cover a 7.5 spread.
When looking at the over/under, the over for the Bills is 2-1 when it is between 35-40. In the past five years, when the Bills are favored the over is 3-2.
The Buffalo Bills in the past three seasons under Sean McDermott
Under Sean McDermott, who has been the head coach since the 2017 season, the Buffalo Bills are 10-6-1 in covering when they are favored. The percentage is similar when they are only favored by seven or less as the Bills are 7-5-1.
The over/under is evenly split for the Buffalo Bills when it is between 35-40 points. In these games, the over is only 4-4.
Jets trends over the last three seasons
As the Jets are underdogs this Week One matchup, let’s see how they measure up.
When looking at the NFL as a whole, the underdog has been 19-18-1 in covering while the over is 22-16. Meanwhile, when the underdog is seven points or less, they are 4-2. In regards to the over/under, when it is between 35-40 points the over is 4-2.
From a point spread standpoint, the recent numbers would suggest the Jets will be able to cover the 6.5 spread. That means the New York Jets will lose by six or less.
From an over/under standpoint the recent numbers would suggest the Over has a greater chance of cashing albeit by a slim margin.
Next. 4 questions for the Bills entering Week 1. dark
While that maybe what the numbers say I have this game going in a different way. The Jets lost their two best defensive players in Jamal Adams and C.J. Mosley. They’ll be starting a rookie left tackle against Jerry Hughes. The Bills are out to claim the AFC East this season.