The Buffalo Bills would actually increase their point total if they went exclusively to attempting two-point conversions after touchdowns.
The hope is that the Buffalo Bills will score more points this coming season with more offensive weapons like Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis along with the development of players like Josh Allen, Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox. One way they could score more points, even if the offense doesn’t score more touchdowns, is attempt two-point conversions almost every time.
Since the NFL moved extra point attempts back from the two-yard line to the 15-yard line, these field goals are no longer automatic, or guaranteed, points. Last year, extra point attempts were made 94% of the time and Bills’ kicker Stephen Haushka converted 30 of 32 extra point attempts. Another way of looking at this percentage is to say an NFL team can expect .94 points per extra point attempt.
When looking at two point conversions last year 56 of 113 two-point attempts were converted. While this is only a percentage of 49.5% when looking at point per two-point conversion attempt it is actually slightly higher than an extra point at 0.99.
Based on these percentages, if an NFL team attempted a two-point conversion after every touchdown scored, they would finish the year with a higher point total.
While these totals are league-wide, when looking specifically at the Buffalo Bills they actually perform much better. Over the past two years, the Bills have attempted six two-point conversions and converted four of them. The only two times they didn’t was a botched hold on an extra point attempt in 2018 against the New England Patriots and also a Nathan Peterman pass attempt to Terrelle Pryor.
As for Josh Allen, he is a perfect on two point conversions by converting on all four of his attempts. One of the reasons it makes sense for the Bills to attempt more two point conversions is because of what Josh Allen brings to this offense.
He is a big, mobile quarterback that will put pressure on opposing defenses. The Bills essentially have every play and formation on the table. They can spread out defenses to give Allen room to run for the score or by spreading everyone wide it gives him a clear passing lane.
If using the league wide percentage, the Bills, who had 35 total touchdowns last year, would have scored 1.75 more points on the season if they attempted a two-point conversion after every touchdown. This isn’t a significant increase however, the Buffalo Bills have shown they are better than the league average. If they convert on 75% of their two-point attempts, it would result in 19.6 more points in a season
In the past, extra point field goal attempts were considered essentially automatic. However with it being moved back and the certainty dropping slightly, combined with the success Josh Allen has shown in these situations, the Buffalo Bills should go for more two-point conversions this coming season.