Bleacher Report took a look at some teams potentially looking to trade for RB Melvin Gordon. The Buffalo Bills are mentioned as one.
Los Angeles Chargers running back Melvin Gordon won’t attend training camp without a new contract, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN. The two-time Pro Bowler wants a bump up from his measly rookie-scale grade and may sit out games to do so, per his agent via NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. Naturally, trade rumors because of so are running rampant, with the Buffalo Bills listed as a possibility to do just that.
Bleacher Report’s Brent Sobleski took a look at five squads that may trade for — and subsequently, give Gordon a new contract — with the Bills mentioned as the first. The logic behind a potential trade is that (a) the Bills have an aging group of talented backs (b) Gordon is a bonafide star and (c) the Bills have cap space to spend (nearly $22 million). A potential trade package between the two teams go as follows:
"2020 fourth-round draft pick, offensive lineman LaAdrian Waddle and defensive end Shaq Lawson."
Sobleski also mentioned that a trade for Gordon may lead to a LeSean McCoy release, as per Over The Cap, he’d save the team $6.43 million in cap space.
It should be clear that trading for one of the league’s most talented backs in Gordon would bolster the Bills’ offense. In 2018, Gordon ranked as Pro Football Focus‘ seventh-best back in the NFL with an 83.1 grade — he’s the only back in the league with an 80+ grade against a stacked box as well. According to Sharp Football Stats, his success rate of 50.7% stands three points over the league average.
In 2018, Gordon finished the year with his three straight campaign tallying over 1,375 scrimmage yards, despite playing in just 12 games. The 26-year-old’s game that hinges on elusivity, explosiveness, and a surprising amount of power is tried and true; but should the Bills pull the trigger on a trade?
The compensation above is a good one for the Bills — Waddle and Lawson aren’t expected to start, and a fourth-round pick is worth trading for a bonafide star — that’s not the issue in a trade. The problem lies within the contract Gordon hopes to receive.
As one of the better backs in the NFL, Gordon is hoping to get the extension he sees fit. Considering the extensions given out to then-rookie-scale backs last off-season (Todd Gurley and David Johnson ), it wouldn’t be cheap for either the Chargers or Bills.
One could expect Gordon’s contract to count for at least $11 million a year over the course of three or more seasons with a solid guarantee tacked on. But is he worth that?
What's a fair deal for both the #Chargers and Melvin Gordon? pic.twitter.com/JDU8OnBnat
— Connor Rogers (@ConnorJRogers) July 11, 2019
There is little doubt of Gordon’s abilities as a back; the 2015 first-round pick is often considered to be a top-ten talent in the NFL. But his recent injuries are a concern; he missed four games in 2018 due to a hamstring pull and MCL sprain. SportsInjuryPredictor.com says there is a 52.8% chance he gets injured in 2019, with an expected 2.3 games missed — not particularly inspiring.
There is also the matter that the Bills have added five running backs to the group in the off-season, including veterans Frank Gore and T.J. Yeldon and rookie Devin Singletary. A trade for Gordon may very well mean that one is gone — as mentioned previously, it could be McCoy.
Lastly, the Bills must consider that running backs are nowhere nearly as valuable as they once were. Though Gordon is a talented back with an impressive resume, many have concluded his success stems from blocking and schematics. If that holds true, could the Bills repeat that success, considering they struggled to run the ball last season?
Before considering a phone call to Los Angeles, general manager Brandon Beane must take in account his talent already on the roster, Gordon’s looming extension — that he must give him in a trade –, and his injury history. If Gordon’s Pro-Bowl-caliber game trumps those thought processes, then the proposed trade should happen, as he’d be a missing cog in their offense.
Nonetheless, it’s more likely that a trade doesn’t happen. Gordon, though immensely talented, may look to get a contract extension most teams wouldn’t pay. A potential deal may strap the Bills’ cap space in the future, and his injury concerns may turn a worthy contract to a bad one.