Buffalo Bills: Don’t rush the Dawson Knox expectations

Tight end Dawson Knox has all the tools to become a promising player for the Buffalo Bills, but history shows that tight ends typically take longer to develop at the NFL level. 

As part of their overhaul of the offense, the Buffalo Bills released former starting tight end Charles Clay and signed Tyler Kroft to go with Jason Croom to compete for the starting tight end position. In addition to the re-signing of Lee Smith following the draft, Buffalo traded back up into the third round of April’s draft to select Dawson Knox at pick No. 96.

So far through OTAs, Kroft has gotten injured and is likely out at least until Week 1 and Croom is battling a leg injury. That has led Knox to getting first-team reps on the offense this week and stepping into a leading role. However, expecting Knox to become a difference-maker on the offense in his first season is too much to ask of the rookie.

While he has a great deal of athletic ability, Knox only caught 39 passes in three years of action at Ole Miss – one year of which he played just one game and recorded no statistics. His junior year with the Landsharks, Knox caught just 15 passes for 284 yards and no touchdowns. In a total of 18 career games at Ole Miss, Knox accounted for 605 yards and no touchdowns.

While his production was not as high as one would may hope for a third-round pick, Knox had players such as A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, and Damarkus Lodge on the outside as weapons and no real plays specifically for him. His speed, size, agility, hands, and route running are all raw, but his ceiling is extremely high.

By no means am I saying he will become this good at the NFL, but Knox’s production in college and athletic attributes compare closely to George Kittle of the San Francisco 49ers.

Kittle played four years at Iowa, tallying 48 catches with 737 yards and 10 touchdowns. He is listed at 6-foot-4 and 247 pounds compared to Knox’s 6-foot-4, 254 pounds. Knox ran a 4.58 40-yard dash time with Kittle coming in at 4.52 and a 35-inch vertical jump while Knox leaped 34.5 inches. There three-cone drills differ by 0.02.

In his first year in the league, Kittle caught just 43 passes for 515 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers will probably be much higher than Knox’s due to his inexperience, veterans on the roster, and the still growing Josh Allen. What is truly impressive is Kittle’s explosion to an elite tight end in year two of his career, hauling in 88 receptions and 1,377 yards – a record for receiving yards in a season by a tight end in NFL history.

While I don’t believe Knox will be at that level for potentially a few years, it shows that even the elite tight ends aren’t elite right away. Zach Ertz of the Philadelphia Eagles saw a similar transition to the NFL where he recorded 36 catches for 469 yards and four touchdowns his rookie season, followed by 707 yards with 58 catches and three touchdowns in year number two. Last season he set the NFL record for receptions by a tight end in a season.

If Knox were to reach the level of a Kittle or Ertz, that would obviously be a huge get for the team. A more realistic outcome may be Knox turns into a player like Kyle Rudolph. Rudolph tallied 26 catches for 249 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie – all realistic numbers for Knox in his first season.

For the next four seasons he ended up with catch totals of 53, 30, 24, and 49 while tallying touchdown totals of nine, three, two, and five. His best season came in 2016 where he had 83 receptions for 840 yards and seven touchdowns – a season that would be incredible for a Bills tight end.

That is a much more realistic career comparison, and one that is much more attainable for Knox. His physical tools are outstanding, and if he can harness them, he can become a certain red zone threat for Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense.

In the Erhardt-Perkins offense that offensive coordinator Brian Daboll runs, a versatile tight end is key. Slot receivers and multiple running backs are keys to the system as well as those holes were filled by Cole Beasley, Frank Gore, T.J. Yeldon and Devin Singletary. Adding Knox to the fold could complete the offense.

It will take time for Knox to develop, but the development isn’t one that is uncommon to the position throughout the NFL. Time will tell, but the Buffalo Bills may finally be on their way to having a real-life NFL offense.