Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots: Three Keys to the Game
By DJ Eberle
The Buffalo Bills’ Week 13 tilt against the New England Patriots kicks off at 1 p.m. in Orchard Park.
Well, well, well, the Buffalo Bills are in the playoff hunt and the New England Patriots are coming to town.
Haven’t we all heard this before?
The only question, can the Bills pull off the upset this time?
It’s a tall task. The New England offense is clicking and the defense has rounded into form.
However, the Bills are 4-1 at New Era Stadium this season and coming off of their biggest win of the season, taking one from the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Week 12.
This isn’t a must-win game because Buffalo still has a pair of games against the Miami Dolphins and one against the Indianapolis Colts left, but a victory Sunday could go a long way.
You know the drill, each week during the regular season this column will provide the three ways the Bills can secure a victory. So, without further ado, here are the Three Keys to the Game for the matchup against the Patriots, which kicks off 1 p.m. Sunday at New Era Stadium on CBS.
Contain Rob Gronkowski
The Bills have the talent on the outside to shut down Brandin Cooks and Co.
However, this team has struggled mightily against the tight end this season. Buffalo was able to shut down Travis Kelce a week ago. But was that a fluke?
Rob Gronkowski has been stellar this season. In fact, Pro Football Focus ranks him No. 2 at his position. He always seems to have big games when he comes back to Buffalo, too.
Shutting down Gronkowski should be priority No. 1.
Run LeSean McCoy Early and Often
LeSean McCoy has a chance to bounce back this week.
New England struggles against the run, and if the Bills can run the ball effectively, Tom Brady and the rest of the Patriots offense will stay on the sideline as a result.
The Patriots will likely be able to cash it in when they have the ball effectively, so Buffalo must stay on the field and convert first downs.
Look for the matchup between between McCoy and Kyle Van Noy, which is a pair PFF features in its preview of the Week 13 tilt.
McCoy ranks ninth in breakaway percentage while Van Noy is one of the worst linebackers against the run in the league. It’s a matchup the Bills must take advantage of.
"“McCoy has been one of the biggest homerun threats this season. His 40.5 breakaway percentage is the ninth best by a runner this year, as he has earned 306 of his 756 rushing yards on runs of 15 or more yards. McCoy has 11 such runs, which is the second most in the NFL. Van Noy has been suspect against the run this season, as his 43.1 run-defense grade ranks 70th out of 88 linebackers. He has missed the second-most tackles (eight) in the run game this season.” – Pro Football Focus"
Score Touchdowns, Not Field Goals
If the Bills wants to win this game they’re going to have to score almost every time they touch the ball.
Unlike against the Chiefs, field goals are not going to cut it this week.
Buffalo will have an advantage in the red zone. New England is last in the league when it comes to yards per play inside the 30-yard line and 25th when the ball is inside the red zone, according to BuffaloBills.com.
The Bills, who have been good in the red zone this season, need to find the end zone when they get in close.
Prediction: Bills 31-30
This New England defense is still overrated.
While the Patriots have been better as of late, they still rank 20th against the run and 31st against the pass. Buffalo will have some opportunities.
The determining factor will be whether or not the Bills can sustain drives. If they can do that, they’ll have a shot.