It will cost a ton for Buffalo Bills to move up in 2018 NFL Draft

Breaking down the Mitch Trubisky trade

Let’s start with the shocking trade from the 2017 NFL Draft when the Chicago Bears traded up from No. 3 overall to No. 2 overall with the San Francisco 49ers in order to draft quarterback Mitch Trubisky from the University of North Carolina.

In order to move up one slot, the Bears also gave the 49ers a 2017 3rd round pick (67 overall), a 2017 4th round pick (111 overall) and a 2018 third round pick. Despite looking lopsided, this trade is actually reasonably fair if you subscribe to Pro Football Talk’s draft pick value system.

The Bears received the No. 2 overall pick which is worth 2,600 points in that system. The 49ers received the 3rd overall pick (2,200 pts), 67th overall pick (255 pts), 111th overall pick (72 pts) and a 2018 third round pick. Since we don’t know where the Bears will pick in 2018 we can’t know the exact points yet but the range for the 2nd round is 265 points to 116 points.

That means the range the 49ers would have received back can be as high as 2,792 or as low as 2,643 points. Both figures are reasonably close to the 2,600 points the Bears received so despite most people’s perceptions that the Bears gave up too much, it actually wasn’t nearly as bad as it seemed at first glance.

Next, let’s move to the 2016 NFL Draft where there were two trades to move into the top of the 1st round. Let’s start with the Jared Goff trade.