The Buffalo Bills’ Week 16 matchup against the Miami Dolphins kicks off on Saturday at 1 p.m. in Orchard Park. Merry Christmas Eve!
Like Week 13 at the Oakland Raiders and Week 14 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Buffalo Bills have one last high-stakes game left on their schedule: Saturday against the Miami Dolphins.
A loss Saturday will eliminate the Bills from playoff contention for the 17th straight season and eliminate them from finishing with a winning record.
Everything is at stake.
Buffalo has already lost to the Dolphins once this season — Week 7 in Miami — but have a chance at redemption this weekend. With a win, the Bills have an opportunity to, at the very least, put Miami in a hole heading into the final week of the regular season.
With Miami Dolphins starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill sitting this one out while nursing an ACL injury, the Bills will have an opportunity to shut the Miami defense down. However, they’ll have to stop running back Jay Ajayi, something the Bills struggled with last time around.
Each week during the regular season, this column will provide the three ways the Bills can secure a victory. So, without further ado, here’s the Three Keys to the Game for the matchup against the Dolphins, which kicks off Saturday at 1 p.m. at New Era Field on CBS.
Stop Jay Ajayi
First and foremost, Jay Ajayi cannot run for 200-plus yards again on Saturday.
If that happens, not only would Buffalo be fighting the battle for time of possession, but they’ll need to be almost perfect with the ball. If Miami can control the clock, the Bills will have their work cut out for them.
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Buffalo needs to build off of last week’s efforts against Isaiah Crowell. The Cleveland Browns running back came in rolling, but Buffalo did a good job of bottling him up.
Ajayi hasn’t had nearly the same success he’s had against Buffalo and the Steelers the last month, but he’s still a threat out of the backfield. With Matt Moore at quarterback, the Dolphins will look to run the ball more.
Ajayi got 20 and 19 carries the last to weeks, with Tannehill leaving the game early two games ago and then missing last Sunday. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ajayi gets 18-plus carries again.
Buffalo needs to shut down the run game.
Find ways to get Charles Clay involved
Charles Clay, where have you been all my life?
After a quiet start to the season, Clay has been a monster the last two weeks, hauling in 10 balls for 124 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Clay’s first touchdown didn’t come until Week 14.
The Dolphins’ secondary is banged up and linebackers like Kiko Alonso struggle in coverage. Clay could find success in the middle of the field.
If Tyrod Taylor can work the ball with success to Clay, fellow tight end Nick O’Leary and LeSean McCoy, the Buffalo wide receivers will be able to make some plays down the field.
Touchdowns Over Field Goals
The best way Buffalo can put away Miami is if they do it early.
In a cold weather game, Buffalo’s going to need to make the most out of every trip to the red zone. And it just happens that, Buffalo’s red-zone offense could be a difference Saturday.
BuffaloBills.com lead writer Chris Brown believes this could be Buffalo’s biggest advantage this weekend.
"“Miami’s defense is just middle of the pack when it comes to keeping opponents out of their end zone when defending inside their own 20-yard line. Almost 55 percent of the time their opponents get six. Buffalo has the third-highest red zone touchdown percentage in the league, as they’re scoring two out of every three times they crack an opponent’s red zone (66%).” – Chris Brown"
I tend to agree. While Miami’s defense has holes, there are some areas Buffalo can exploit. And if this is going to be another high-scoring affair, touchdowns are going to go a lot further than field goals.
Prediction: Bills 24, Dolphins 14
With the loss of Ryan Tannehill, I don’t think Miami has enough weapons to keep up with Buffalo.
Jay Ajayi has slowed down and Buffalo’s offense has never really stopped. If its defense can keep up its end of the bargain it should be smooth sailing.
What are your predictions for the Bills’ game on Christmas Eve? Leave your comments below!