Here’s our Dolphins vs. Bills Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook for this Week.
The biggest news in Buffalo this week was surrounding LeSean McCoy and his hamstring. McCoy tweaked his hamstring in Wednesday’s practice. Currently, the NFL’s second-leading rusher is listed as a game-time decision for Sunday which makes predicting the Bills fantasy outlook at running back a little tricky.
ESPN is reporting that McCoy is “expected” to play Sunday on a limited snap count of somewhere between 25 – 35 snaps. So far this season he has averaged about 48 snaps per game. The obvious advice here is you need to pay attention to whether McCoy is playing on Sunday. That information might not be official until right before the game.
If he does play, even if he is only 80 percent, he should still have a terrific game. Miami is ranked second worst in the league in average rushing yards per game only to San Fransisco who the Bills torched for 312 yards last week. Don’t expect them to repeat that performance but they should still be able to run the ball effectively all game.
More from BuffaLowDown
- Buffalo Bills were ready to trade back if they couldn’t get Dalton Kincaid
- Grading Buffalo Bills drafting Dalton Kincaid in 2023 NFL Draft
- How the Buffalo Bills can win Day 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft
- Buffalo Bills having conversations about trading for DeAndre Hopkins
- Buffalo Bills Draft Rumors: Bills linked to this shocking first round target
If McCoy doesn’t play or is very limited, Mike Gillislee is expected to get the bulk of the Bills carries. If he is still on your waiver wire, he is worth a pickup for sure. I snagged him in two leagues and if McCoy can’t go he’ll be thrust right into my starting lineup. The Bills matchup is too good not to.
Gillislee didn’t get any carries the first two weeks of the year but since then he has 17 carries for 117 yards which is a 6.9 yard average per carry. In the past two weeks, “Touchdown Mike” has lived up to his name finding the end zone each week.
If McCoy doesn’t play, Reggie Bush could also see an uptick in carries but not enough to merit playing. So far this season Bush has only rushed the ball six times for five yards. He hasn’t been targeted in the passing game which is strange considering he has 470 career receptions for over 3,500 yards. With the Bills banged up at wide receiver they should consider some formations where Bush lines up in the slot but he still won’t be worth playing this week.
On the other side, Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi had a huge game last week. He had 204 yards and two touchdowns. He’s all the sudden become a “sexy” pick in fantasy football but people need to slow their roll. While he is the only player in the league who averages more yards per carry than LeSean McCoy with 5.7 to 5.6 he’s only rushed 56 times compared to McCoy’s 104 attempts.
Before his standout performance this past week, Ajayi’s best yardage total this season was 42 yards. He’s only had double digit carries twice this year although that has been in the past two weeks. He does have four touchdowns this season but three of them came in the past two weeks.
There are two ways you can think about Ajayi. One side looks at the stats I just lined up and thinks last week was an anomaly and he’s not worth starting. The other side is that he’s had his two best performances in the past two weeks as he’s gotten more carries. If Miami continues to feed him the ball he could continue this upward trend.
Even if that’s the case, the Bills defense has held better running backs down this year. In the past four weeks, the Bills have faced David Johnson, LeGarrette Blount, Todd Gurley and Carlos Hyde. Buffalo has been able to hold these four players to an average of under 66 yards per game. Johnson and Gurley, who might be the two top young backs in the league not named Ezekiel Elliott, were the only players out of the four to score on Buffalo.
I’d avoid starting Ajayi if he were on my team but I also understand how hard it is to sit a player who put up over 200 yards the week before. He has a tough matchup though and he’s going to need to find the end zone to make it worth your while.
For the Bills, whoever they start should have a good game so pay attention to the inactive report. Expect at least a touchdown and 90 plus yards for whoever Buffalo features at running back this week.