Dec 1, 2013; Toronto, ON, Canada; Buffalo Bills outside linebacker Manny Lawson (91) sacks Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) during the first quarter at the Rogers Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
Every year the NFL gives out compensatory picks to teams. How they determine the picks is a formula that they have not released. So at this point it is just a big prediction. The NFL does not release the compensatory picks until the March 24-25 owners meeting, hence, the predictions.
Craig Turner, from philly.com has projected the compensatory picks for this year. He has been very accurate in the past and was able to accurately predict the pick for 24 teams last year.
If you are unfamiliar with compensatory pick rules, here is a break down.
"1. Lost players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs do not qualify.2. Lost players that were picked up during the season the year before do not qualify.3. Signed players that are released before midseason do not qualify.4. Players earning low minimum salaries do not qualify.5. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.6. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts."
The predicted compensatory picks are as follows:
3 – Pittsburgh – Mike Wallace
3 – Green Bay – Greg Jennings
4 – San Francisco – Dashon Goldson
4 – Baltimore – Paul Kruger
4 – Detroit – Gosder Cherilus
4 – Baltimore – Dannell Ellerbe
5 – Houston – Connor Barwin
5 – New York Jets – LaRon Landry
5 – Baltimore – Carey Williams
5 – Atlanta – Brent Grimes
5 – Pittsburgh – Keenan Lewis
5 – New York Giants – Martellus Bennett
5 – Baltimore – Ed Reed
5 – Houston – Glover Quin
6 – New York Jets – Mike DeVito
6 – Green Bay – Erik Walden
6 – New York Jets – Dustin Keller
6 – New England – Patrick Chung
6 – Cincinnati – Manny Lawson
6 – St. Louis – Brandon Gibson
6 – New York Jets – Shonn Greene
7 – St. Louis – Bradley Fletcher
7 – Dallas – Mike Jenkins
7 – Cincinnati – Pat Sims
7 – St. Louis – Craig Dahl
7 – St. Louis – Rob Turner
7 – Dallas – Victor Butler
7 – Cincinnati – Brad Gradkowski
7 – Tampa Bay – Geno Hayes
7 – Atlanta – Will Svitek
7 – Atlanta – Christopher Owens
7 – San Diego – Shaun Phillips
7 – Dallas – Kenyon Coleman
7 – Houston – Donnie Jones
7 – Atlanta – Luke McCown
7 – Pittsburgh – Ryan Mundy
7 – Buffalo – net value
7 – Oakland – net value
Craig put two net value teams at the end, where we find our Buffalo Bills. This net value is based on the value difference of players lost and players signed in both categories being equal.
So for Buffalo, if this is correct, they would be awarded a compensatory pick for the 7th round based on them losing Levitre (7.8M) and Reinhart (1.75M). They signed Lawson (3M) and Banch (3M). The value difference is higher in the lost column but the Bills did lose two and sign two.
If you want the full nerdy breakdown of everybody’s pick and a breakdown of the compensatory system, you can go to http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/red_zone/2014-NFL-compensatory-pick-projections.html#QiVfeEk8M6TY8ut7.99
Most information was taken from philly.com provided by Craig Turner.
1. Lost players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs do not qualify.
2. Lost players that were picked up during the season the year before do not qualify.
3. Signed players that are released before midseason do not qualify.
4. Players earning low minimum salaries do not qualify.
5. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.
6. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts.
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/red_zone/2014-NFL-compensatory-pick-projections.html#QiVfeEk8M6TY8ut7.99