Buffalo Bills At Miami Dolphins: Over/Under Game


Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

This is a new weekly segment I am going to do every game week for the Bills. I give 5 stats, and I predict if there will be over or under that stat. For example, the Bills will have 120 rushing yards. I will predict either over or under.

Before I dive in, here is some game info.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

October 20, 2013 at 1PM

Line: MIA -7

Over/Under: 43

Without further ado, the first stat is : Thad Lewis 225 yards passing

Thad Lewis played good last week against the Bengals throwing for 216 yards. However, the Bengals defense is better than the Dolphins. The Bills, on the other hand, are going to run the ball a lot against this weak run defense off Miami. I still think Lewis could get to this number. The pass defense for Miami has not allowed less than 231 yards, but Thad Lewis is of less caliber. However, I still think Lewis tops 225, and finishes with 240 yards.

Thad Lewis (9): Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Verdict: OVER

Lamar Miller 75 yards rushing

Lamar Miller has not topped 69 yards rushing this year, but the Dolphins have not given Miller a lot of carries. I think the Dolphins now trust Miller, and will give him more carriers Sunday. However, the Bills have the 11th best rush defense in the league. Anchored by rookie Kiko Alonso, this team has a good run defense. I think Miller just misses the bar of 75.

Lamar Miller (26):Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Verdict: UNDER

Kiko Alonso 11 tackles

Kiko had an insane 22 tackles last week, can he get half as much Sunday? The Bengals ran the ball 33 times last week, but the Dolphins won’t run as much. Kiko could easily get pass this number if the Bills get behind. However, I do not think Kiko Alonso will get 11 tackles. 9 or 10 tackles sounds better.

Mike Wallace (11):Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Verdict: UNDER

Mike Wallace 7 catches

It has been feast or famine for Mike Wallace this year. With one of the worst pass defenses coming to town, Wallace should get this number easily. However, with Mike Wallace, you never know. I predict 9 catches for Wallace on Sunday.

Verdict: OVER

Dolphins winning margin: 7

 The Bills have played close games this whole season. The Dolphins have not blown anybody out of the water. If the Bills can get the pass rush and the running game going they can win this game. With Thad Lewis at QB, he is prone to make mistakes. With a defense who has an INT in all but one game (Drew Brees), expect a couple of turnovers from Thad Lewis. At home and coming off a bye, I expect the Dolphins to win this one by 13 points.

Verdict: OVER

I want to hear your predictions for this Sunday’s game! Sound off in the comments below!