BLD Picks NFL Games Against the Spread: Week 13


Let’s be real: a lot of people love football because it’s the easiest and funnest sport to gamble on. And there’s nothing wrong with that. Personally, I’m too broke to gamble (being a first-year public school teacher isn’t too lucrative), but I sure do watch a lot of football. I figure I should help* my loyal readers out with some gambling advice. Each week I’ll pick four games plus a fifth “Lock of the Week.”

*Help not guaranteed to be actually helpful.

Well, we learned a few things from my picks last week:

– The Redskins have righted the ship to some extent. I guess this means I finally have to quit betting against them every week. I’ll never understand why the ‘Skins benched Rex Grossman for John Beck. Sure, the Sex Cannon is inconsistent, but you CAN win games with him. Beck? Not so much.

– Never trust the Steelers to cover a big spread as the favorite. I’ve lost roughly 100 bets this way, and yet I’ll never learn.

– The Eagles? Done. I should have written this column before Thursday because that Seahawks/Eagles game would have easily been my Lock of the Week.

Well, I can’t go back in time to pick the Eagles, but I can learn from the other two lessons. As a result, I’m not touching the Washington/Jets game this week and I’m picking against the Steelers on principle. Only 13 points against the Chiefs? Really?

Anyway, on to Week 13′s games:

(Home teams in CAPS)

Broncos (-1) over VIKINGS

I really wish I’d written this earlier in the week, when the Adrian Peterson-less 2-9 Vikings were somehow actually favorites in this one. I’m truly baffled. I’m no Tebow believer, but Denver is a much better team than Minnesota at this point.

Bengals (+7) over STEELERS

Even I wasn’t upset with Pittsburgh for screwing up my Lock of the Week last week, I think I’d like Cincy here. Seven points is a big line, and the Bengals are going to hang around in this game, if not win it outright. I’m not a big believer in the Steelers right now.

BEARS (-7) over Chiefs

In the battle of awful backup QBs, I think I like Caleb Hanie (who probably deserves a higher rating than “awful”) a lot more than the truly horrible Tyler Palko. I have no idea what Palko’s doing in the league. Palko is BRUTAL, but for some reason the recently-acquired Kyle Orton will remain on the bench. In a related story, Chiefs coach Todd Haley is going to get fired soon.

PATRIOTS (-21) over Colts

That 21-point line is ridiculous. And yet, justified.

And now…

*Note: don’t take the word “Lock” too seriously.

Packers (-7) over GIANTS

The Giants can’t rush the QB right now. Against the Packers, no pass rush = blowout. Expect a virtual repeat of Monday’s Saints/Giants beatdown.

Last Week: 3-2

Overall: 32-24-3

Lock of the Week: 7-5