BLD Picks NFL Games Against the Spread: Week 11


Let’s be real: a lot of people love football because it’s the easiest and funnest sport to gamble on. And there’s nothing wrong with that. Personally, I’m too broke to gamble (being a first-year public school teacher isn’t too lucrative), but I sure do watch a lot of football. I figure I should help* my loyal readers out with some gambling advice. Each week I’ll pick four games plus a fifth “Lock of the Week.”

*Help not guaranteed to be actually helpful.

I don’t get Vegas sometimes.

Granted, there’s a reason those guys are there making money and I’m blogging in my basement. But there’s a few lines in this week’s games that just seem ridiculous to me. Like a free pass for losers like me to make money.

Let’s see if you agree:

(Home teams in CAPS)

Bills (+1.5) over DOLPHINS

Wait, the Dolphins are FAVORED in this game? Yeah, they’ve won two straight while the Bills have looked awful the past two weeks…but the Dolphins have beaten the Chiefs and Redskins. Color me unimpressed. Does anyone take the Matt Moore-led Miami offense all that seriously? If the Bills defense doesn’t completely suck, I like Buffalo’s chances here.

VIKINGS (+1) over Raiders

I love the Vikings in this one. They’re not nearly as bad as they looked Monday, and the Raiders simply aren’t that good right now. Don’t be fooled by that win over the Chargers…San Diego is absolutely terrible at the moment (more on that next).

BEARS (-3.5) over Chargers

This line baffles me. I would have made it my Lock of the Week almost any other week. The Bears are on fire right now, and the Chargers should have fired Norv Turner four years ago. Philip Rivers is clearly playing hurt or something else is wrong, and that team is not nearly good enough to hang with Chicago on the road without a 100% Rivers.

PATRIOTS (-15) over Chiefs

This could have also been Lock of the Week. The Chiefs are DONE. Todd Haley should just clean out his office now. I can’t imagine a team that couldn’t beat Miami or Denver at home has any prayer of even keep it close in Foxboro. Don’t look now, but there’s a pretty good shot the Pats finish 13-3 given their super weak schedule. And when they lose 31-14 to the Ravens in the first round in the playoffs we’ll all act surprised, because we forgot how bad their defense sucks.

And now…

*Note: don’t take the word “Lock” too seriously.

 Cowboys (-7.5) over REDSKINS

And for the third straight week, the Lock of the Week is to pick against the ‘Skins. There’s a reason for that. They’re AWFUL. How has Vegas not caught on to that yet? DeMarcus Ware might have 50 sacks Sunday. I’m a little worried now that Rex Grossman is back in there for Washington – he’s at least a legitimate NFL-level QB, unlike the putrid John Beck. Still, this one’s gonna be all Cowboys.

Last Week: 3-2

Overall: 27-20-3

Lock of the Week: 7-3