The Bills may end up being in a very valuable position at the top of the 1st round. Buddy Nix has never sounded fond of moving around on draft day, especially if a player he covets is sitting on the board. However, recent developments could make a deal very worthwhile. There is still so much uncertainty in the draft, though, which makes this a cloudy projection.
Say, for instance, Nix is like me and has his heart set on LSU CB Patrick Peterson. If he is selected in the top 2 with say Cam Newton or Da’Quan Bowers, that would leave Nick Fairley, Marcell Dareus, and Blaine Gabbert available.
I have Fairley and Dareus graded pretty close and I could live with either. The Bengals, sitting at #4, are poised to possibly take a DT. However, with the Carson Palmer situation continuing to look ugly, I think they’re going to end up being forced into taking a QB (in their estimation). It is no secret that Arizona is in the market for a signal caller and I believe that Ken Whisenhunt would prefer a pocket passer in Gabbert over Newton if given the opportunity.
If they believe in Gabbert as their next franchise guy, it would be in their best interest to leap-frog the Bengals and swap picks with us. According to the outdated trade value chart (which I believe is relevant again considering the good possibility of a rookie wage scale), the trade would be worth 500 points. The Cardinals 2nd round pick, 38th overall, is worth 520 points. Potentially, the Bills could receive the 5th overall pick and the 38th overall pick for the 3rd overall pick and probably a 6th rounder.
This is all moot if the Bills are sold on Gabbert and both the aforementioned defensive line prospects don’t fall past the first two picks. However, I feel this is a legitimate possibility that the Bills may be faced with, come the end of April.
In talking with someone knowledgeable about the game, he had an interesting idea that I want to share with you. He suggested the possibility of swapping picks this year for swapping 1st rounders next year. It’s definitely a gamble, but he believes the Cards will be the worst team in football next year and we could end up with the first overall pick. I do believe were a better team than Arizona, but it would also be tempting to start developing three players in the top 38 picks this season.
[Author’s note: For the trade that involves swapping picks next year, there would have to be language stipulating we would only swap if the Cards have a better choice. We should also pick up a 3rd in 2011 as part of the deal]