Probability of Every Roster Player of Making the 2014 Buffalo Bills Team : June Edition
By Tony D
Well that was a mouthful of a title. We here at BLD wanted to bring to the fans a way of sizing up the 2014 Buffalo Bills team before anyone else. With this in mind we sought to create a matrix of all players by their odds, or more correctly, probability, of making the cut. As there are no sure bets in life, no player received a 100% probability, even though players like EJ Manuel and Kiko Alonso will be surely suiting up this season. The goal of the article is to compare our assessment month over month until Kickoff weekend and see how some of the “bubble players” pan out.
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Before diving into the full list, we compiled a few overview descriptive statistics of the team as it stands. Obviously loaded with rookies and unsigned free agents (all of which are coming out of college), the team appears to be quite young and inexperienced, with the average age/experience of 25.1 and 3.1 respectively. From the following table, a quick breakdown of the team makeup can be seen.
A few stats that stood out to us:
- The team is quite balanced to this point, even before cuts, at a 47:48:5 ratio of Defense:Offense:Special Teams.
- The average age is 25.1, which is exactly 3.1 years after most students graduate college (at age 22), signaling very little lapse in playing time overall.
- With an average height of 6′ 2″, and weight of 245 lbs, the current roster is more or less in line with NFL averages (taking an average of an average), via http://ftw.usatoday.com/2013/10/nfl-heights-weights-tallest-fattest
- As it stands now, the 2014 Bills have grown both horizontally and vertically over the 2013 roster, by about 3 lbs and 0.4 inches.
Next, we dove into the team position by position to see if there were any other gems of data that stood out.
At this point nothing out of the ordinary, save for the average age of special teams being 3-4 years higher than the other units, due to the curve breaker Brian Moorman. What this does also tell us is which positions the team values the most and will see the most competition, which at this point appears to be the Offensive Line, Wide Receivers, and Secondary. This helped us grade each player by team need and their skill set, giving players with similar skills in less competitive positions a higher probability than a similarly graded player in a contested spot.
The following table lists each player on the current active roster along with their vitals, a probability of making the team (not starting, just making) along with non-scientific reasoning for the grading. We compared our results with a few other Bills sports websites and found to be quite in line with their predictions as well. The table is sorted by unit (Offense/Defense/Special Teams), then by Position, and finally by probability of making the team from highest to lowest.
Without any further ado, the June 2014 Buffalo Bills Team Roster Prediction:
[table id=13 /]
As the summer progresses and players are added/removed/injured/waved, we will look to update this table until a final roster is generated. What do you think about the predictions so far? Add your comments below.
References
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2077621-offseason-buffalo-bills-player-power-rankings