NFL Gambling Tips (From Someone Who Doesn’t Gamble) – Week 1

Let’s be real: a lot of people love football because it’s the easiest and funnest sport to gamble on. And there’s nothing wrong with that. Personally, I’m too broke to gamble (being a first-year public school teacher isn’t too lucrative), but I sure do watch a lot of football. I figure I should help* my loyal readers out with some gambling advice. Each week I’ll pick four games plus a fifth “Lock of the Week.”

*Help not guaranteed to be actually helpful.

(Home teams in CAPS)

Bills (+5.5) over CHIEFS

And let’s start right off with a complete homer pick! But seriously, I like the Bills’ chances to at least keep this game close. Obviously, so did gamblers, as I saw this line at 6.5 earlier in the week. I’m cautiously pretty optimistic about the Buffalo defense for now (until people start getting hurt), so I really don’t think the Chiefs will be able to run away with this one. The line’s come down, but five and a half is still a lot of points to give. Go Bills!

CARDINALS (-7) over Panthers

Cam Newton might turn out to be pretty good…but I don’t think he will be this week. He’s not going to be rattled by an NFL stadium atmosphere – he faced tougher opposing crowds in the SEC than he will this week in Arizona – but I think he will be rattled by NFL defenses. The Cardinals defense is going to have a pretty good day.

Vikings (+9) over CHARGERS

I’ll assume the Chargers will stink in September until they prove otherwise. I do think San Diego wins this game, but nine points seems like an awfully high spread. I think the Vikings will be pretty competitive this year.

BROWNS (-7) over Bengals

The Bengals are going to be terrible this season. I’m sure if anyone realizes just how terrible yet. The defense isn’t awful, but this might end up being a historically bad offense. I’m looking forward to Cedric Benson getting 2.3 yards a carry this season. Poor Andy Dalton. Meanwhile, the Browns should come out flying at home.

And now…

*Note: don’t take the word “Lock” too seriously.

Patriots (-7) over DOLPHINS 

The Pats are going to be tough to stop…and the Dolphins are not going to score nearly enough points to stay in this game.

All right, we’ll see how I do this week and this season. Feel free to add your own picks in the comments.

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