For the past four seasons, the Buffalo Bills have taken control of the AFC East with four consecutive division championships and have gone 19-5 in that span within the division (along with two playoff wins against the Patriots and Dolphins). Once Tom Brady left in 2020, the Bills stepped up and became the best team in the division up to this point.
Having Josh Allen under center, Stefon Diggs to throw the ball to and a defense who can play top-notch football in crucial moments has helped the Bills become who they are today. However, it is a different story heading into next season.
The Bills lost a lot of pieces in the secondary this offseason. They basically have almost a brand-new starting backend of the defense. In addition, wide receivers Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs are no longer in Buffalo and instead will play against the Bills in 2024 with their new respective teams.
This upcoming season will show us if the Bills can still continue their dominance or if a new team will take over the division considering how much Buffalo lost this offseason. There is pressure on each AFC East team heading into this season, but not for the same reasons.
Here is the “success pressure rate” for all teams in the AFC East to win the division, with #4 as the least amount of pressure and #1 being the most pressure to win the AFC East.
4.) New England Patriots
It is the official start of a brand new era in New England. When Tom Brady left the Patriots in 2020, it started the shift of New England no longer being the top team in the division. However, Bill Belichick is officially off of the sidelines for the Patriots as he stepped away from the organization.
New England will not only go with a new head coach in Jerod Mayo, but they also have a new rookie quarterback in Drake Maye after trading away Mac Jones to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Patriots have had just one winning season since 2020 and had their first season with 4 or less wins since 2000 (they went 5-11 that year). There is unproven talent on the offense at the wide receiver position and they do not have any true firepower that defenses’ have to plan for.
The 2024 season is the first year of a rebuild and they will just be looking to see what they have for the future.
3.) Miami Dolphins
It was just last season where the Miami Dolphins had the chance to win the AFC East for the first time since 2008. They had a three game lead on the Bills in the second half of the season but ultimately blew the opportunity to host a playoff game last season. Instead, they lost a massive Week 18 game to the Bills that was for the division. Rather than hosting Buffalo the following week in Miami, they traveled to Kansas City in frigid temperatures and were beaten down by the Chiefs.
The Dolphins suffered massive losses this offseason. On the offensive line, they lost one of the best guards in the game in Robert Hunt who is now in Carolina. On defense, they lost Xavien Howard, Christian Wilkins, and Andrew Van Ginkel. Miami’s “biggest name acquisition” was wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. who has not played a full season since 2019. The biggest pressure that the Dolphins have on their hands is not whether they pay Tua Tagovailoa, but how much they will pay him.
Miami’s free window is closing as Tua is going to get paid big money which will hurt them in other positions for the future. If you take into consideration what the Dolphins lost in free agency, their defense is going to look a lot different and be among one of the worst in the league.
2.) Buffalo Bills
Sure, the Bills haven’t been able to get over the Super Bowl hump and reach the big game. They have either fallen to the Kansas City Chiefs or been blown out by the Cincinnati Bengals. Out of the whole AFC East, the Bills lost the most by a mile. They have almost a brand new starting secondary and a new receiving core on the offense. However, they still have Josh Allen and as long as he is playing at a high level, the Bills will always have pressure to succeed and not waste Allen’s prime years.
Heading into 2024, the Bills still have high expectations but it feels different than the past four seasons. On paper as of right now, they don’t have a dynamic offense with any true star players outside of Allen. They have solid players like James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, and Khalil Shakir showed promise at the end of last season. Other than that, the Bills are a mystery on offense.
Buffalo has won the division the last four seasons which includes stealing the division last season from the Dolphins in Miami after being down three games at one point. The Bills are still expected to succeed, but there should be no surprise if don’t finish first for the fifth consecutive season.
1.) New York Jets
That’s right, you read that correctly. The New York Jets, who have finished in 3rd or 4th place in the division every year since 2016 have the most pressure to win the AFC East in 2024. When Joe Douglas decided to trade for Aaron Rodgers last offseason, it set the bar high for expectations for the Jets.
On the fourth play of the 2023 season for the Jets against the Bills, the biggest nightmare for the Jets came to life when Rodgers suffered a season-ending injury to his achilles. It’s a new season now, and the Jets did not lose anyone major this offseason and will get Rodgers back.
Not to mention, the Jets have one of the most brutal early schedules in 2024. They are tied for the most primetime games this season, meaning that they will have all the attention on them under the lights. The Jets are “all in” with no true success plan beyond the 2024 season.
Robert Saleh is coaching for his job as well so if the Jets have another failure of a season, New York could look like a totally different football team after next season.