With so much change on the roster and the coaching staff this offseason, expectations are a little lower heading into this season than we've seen in the last few years. Roster turnover happens every year, but fans are a little less confident this year given the talent that is no longer here. Specifically Stefon Diggs, Jordan Poyer, and potentially Micah Hyde. These three players have been mainstays for several years.
How the Bills handle these losses and who steps into their place in the depth chart will go a long way towards how the Bills 2024 season pans out. However, the great equalizer is Josh Allen who is still under center and as long as that remains the case, this team will always be in contention. Allen is the unquestioned leader and face of this franchise, and one of the top quarterbacks in the league. This season could be a career-defining year for him, without Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
Will Allen have another 40+ touchdown season, and extend his streak to five straight years of accomplishing this feat? Can he do this without Diggs in the lineup? I don't think he necessarily has to, but there will be a few games the team will ask him to put on the Superman cape. This is what separates the good quarterbacks from the great ones. When the team needs you, do you rise up, perform under pressure, and raise the level of play of those around you. Given Allen's performances in the playoffs and under the lights of primetime, the answer is he's that guy. With that, here are five games that will define Allen's 2024 season.
Five Buffalo Bills games that will define Josh Allen's season in 2024.
Week 3: vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Josh Allen and the Bills haven’t faired very well against the Jaguars as of late, and seem to struggle with them. In three matchups with Jacksonville, Allen has thrown for 783 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. These are very pedestrian numbers for Allen, particularly when you consider 359 yards and two touchdowns in the last game alone. The Bills are 1 – 2 against the Jaguars with Allen under center. The Bills face off with Jacksonville in Week Three and will host them as well, and will get a chance to even the win/loss record.
It's been well chronicled that Allen will be without both his former top wideouts, Diggs and Davis for the first time since 2020. Having a terrific game against Jacksonville isn’t enough either. Allen needs to come away with a win, or the narrative will continue that Jacksonville has Allen’s number. He’ll have some new weapons this time around, and you could argue that even without Diggs, the Bills wide receiver room is better overall, than last season. Also, I expect Allen to come out next season with a new energy and outlook. Last year felt very “forced”, and he just never seemed to be having fun, like we’ve seen him in previous years.
Week 5: at Houston Texans
I circled this game for season-defining games for Keon Coleman as well, and I think the reasons are obvious. The showdown between Allen and Diggs will be the most talked-about storyline of this game. I’m surprised the schedule makers didn’t put this one in a primetime slot, but instead, it’s a casual 1 pm et Sunday game. This won’t stop fans and media alike from breaking this matchup down in every way possible. Coleman will be looked at as Diggs's replacement, whether that is a fair comparison is irrelevant. That is how folks will view him. For Allen, the question will be who made who. Diggs wasn’t an All-Pro until he was paired up with Allen, but Allen wasn’t scoring touchdowns and leading the Bills to the division title or playoffs until Diggs showed up.
I guarantee you that Allen will be fired up for this game and ready to show the world he doesn’t need Diggs, even though we know how Diggs feels about that. If Allen goes out and puts up gaudy numbers in a win, it could finally close the door on the drama Diggs brought to Buffalo the last few years. I think these two need to meet head to head on the gridiron if we are to ever truly move on from this conversation.
Week 6: at New York Jets
Similar to the Jaguars, Allen has struggled against the Jets, but on a greater scale. Look no further than the opening week of last season, when Allen threw three interceptions and a fumble. In 11 games against the Jets, Allen has 2,552 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Buffalo is 7 – 4 against the Jets with Allen under center, and that’s a respectable record, but in recent games, it’s been more on the ugly side. In the first seven of Allen’s games, he’s thrown five interceptions; however, he has six over the last four games. That said, in last year’s November game, Allen recorded the second highest quarterback rating (108.2) against the Jets.
We could ask the question if Allen has turned a corner against the Jets and perhaps figured out their defense. But then we would also have to ask the question, can he repeat that last performance without Diggs and Davis. We should also probably lump both the Jets games into this one, especially considering the Jets might be Buffalo’s biggest obstacle to repeating as division champions for the fifth year in a row. Allen needs to have another solid performance and start to show the same level of dominance he’s shown against the Dolphins over the years.
Week 11: Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are Buffalo’s biggest rival, including the Dolphins. I say this because Allen and the Bills have largely owned the Dolphins since Allen came into the league. That has not been the case with the Chiefs. Since Allen’s arrival to the NFL, the Bills and Chiefs have faced each other seven times, with the first coming in the regular season of 2020. The Chiefs defeated Allen and the Bills both times they faced during the 2020 season, including a win in the playoffs. Since the 2021 regular season, Buffalo owns the head-to-head, 3 games to two. Since 2020, the Bills are 3 – 4 against the Mahomes led Chiefs and unfortunately, three of those Chiefs wins have come in the playoffs.
This regular season battle could be a season-defining game because it will be the first time Allen has faced the Chiefs with Diggs. Sounds like a recurring theme here, right? This season is a big one for Allen, because of the absence of Diggs. I mentioned this at the start of this article, this season could be a season-defining one for Allen, and could go a long way in solidifying him as one of the best and elite quarterbacks in the NFL. I can’t wait to see what Allen does with Diggs out of town and the drama the unnecessary drama.
Week 13: vs San Francisco 49ers
The last time the Bills and 49ers played each other was 2020 and it is the only time Allen has seen San Francisco on the field. Buffalo won that game soundly, 34 – 24, and Allen had himself a day. He had 375 yards, four touchdowns and no turnovers. In fairness to the 49ers, their starting quarterback that day was Nick Mullens. I didn’t circle this game as a season-defining game for Allen because of history though, I circled it because the 49ers are the defending NFC champions, and are expected to be right there battling to defend that title again in 2024.
Allen and the Bills have back-to-back games against each of last year’s Super Bowl participants, with a bye week sandwiched between them. If Allen plays well in these games and gives the Bills a chance to win, it could be huge. Buffalo doesn’t have to go out and win both these games, but remain competitive and show they are still one of the best teams in the league. For me, I’ve put a half dozen circles around these three weeks for Buffalo. Their performance in these two games will tell us a lot about Allen and where the Bills stand in 2024.