The Buffalo Bills have been here before. In 2021, the team was sitting at 7 - 6 and written off; however, they proceeded to win four straight, securing not only a playoff spot but winning the division title too. This team has developed a pension for closing out seasons on a win streak. In 2020, they won six straight, in 2021 the Bills won four in a row, and last season was seven straight.
Can they do it again this season? If so, it would be five in a row and I can see it happening. But based on how this season has gone so far, they could just as easily lose these last four. This weekend is going to be a tough matchup for the Bills, and they will have to be on their game. They are capable but is this a must-win situation? I'm not so sure that's the case but we'll get into that later.
Week 14 was a pivotal week for the Bills too and if they make the playoffs, this past week can be looked back on as the turning point and the most vital week for Buffalo. Loses by the Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Indianapolis Colts helped put six teams in a tie with 7 - 6 records. This, followed by the Bills defeating the Kansas City Chiefs and the Miami Dolphins losing on Monday Night against the Tennessee Titans, set the Bills up for a possible epic ending to the regular season.
There are three likely scenarios that get the Buffalo Bills to the playoffs. I'm going to detail each of those in the order of what I think is most likely to happen, but each requires help from other teams. Certain teams need to lose but I'll give you the percentage of the Bills' chances of getting into the tournament under each scenario. All percentages courtesy of the New York Times playoff simulator. Let's get into it now.
The Buffalo Bills winning the AFC East
A week ago, I wouldn't have given this option much credence but after the Bills took down the Chiefs and Dolphins falling to the Titans, this option carries some weight now. The Dolphins final four games are against the New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, and the Bills. As it stands right now, the Bills are only two games behind the Dolphins, which means Buffalo needs them to lose at least one more. That's also assuming if Buffalo doesn't lose another game leading into that week 18 matchup.
If the Bills win the division, we all know that's a path to the playoffs and hosting their first playoff game. But what are the odds of Buffalo pulling this off? Glad you asked, so here are two scenarios. Many fans believe Buffalo needs to win out and while that would certainly help, it's not a necessity.
1. Bills win the next three games
If the Bills defeat the Cowboys, Chargers, and Patriots heading into week 18, they'll have a 38% chance of winning the division. If the Bills win out, including beating the Dolphins in that last game, Buffalo has an 84% chance of taking the division.
2. Lose to the Cowboys but win the next two
If the Bills lose to the Cowboys but defeat both the Chargers and Patriots, they'll go into that week 18 matchup with the Dolphins with a 15% chance of winning the division. Beat the Dolphins in that final game and their chances rise to 37%.
The moral of the story here is to win out and the Buffalo Bills likely win the AFC East for the fourth consecutive time and host a playoff game. Lose just one of the next three and those odds are very unlikely and wildcard is the most likely road the Bills take the playoffs.
Win out and the Bills will make the playoffs
We just talked about the chances of the Bills winning the division but if that's out of the question, what are the odds they still make the playoffs? As of right now, the Bills have a 49% chance of making the playoffs, which is impressive considering they were below 20% before week 14. If the Bills win this weekend against the Cowboys, their chances go up to 67%.
If the Bills win the next three, which includes the Cowboys, Chargers, and Patriots, the percentage rises to 80%, and defeat the Dolphins in week 18 and those odds are greater than 99%. So, win out and the Bills most likely make the playoffs. Once they are in the dance, anything can happen.
Lose to the Cowboys but win final three
This is probably the most likely scenario. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the Bills will certainly lose to the Cowboys but it's no doubt the toughest matchup remaining on their schedule. So, what happens if they lose to the Cowboys but win the final three? A lot of fans believe Buffalo has to win out but you might be shocked that's not the case.
We talked early about the Bills having a better than 99% chance to make it if they win out but if they lose this weekend and win the final three, the chances are still a solid 81%. This shows that despite the Bills' poor conference record, there are other teams right there with them in the same boat. Winning those final three conference games is the most vital in just about every scenario.