Heading into the 2024 NFL Draft, the writing was on the wall that the Buffalo Bills were going to get a wide receiver early on. They let Gabe Davis walk in free agency and sign with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Then they made the shocking trade of sending wideout Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans in exchange for a future second round pick. There were many speculations that the Bills would select a wide receiver in the first round of the draft, but they traded back not once but twice to get out of the first round.
To kick off the second round, Brandon Beane would draft Josh Allen’s hopeful future number-one wideout in Keon Coleman out of Florida. Coleman has become a fan favorite in Buffalo in his short time with the team and fans should be excited to see what he can bring to the Bills.
This Buffalo offense is going to look a lot different than it has in previous years. Sometimes fans create realistic expectations based on the proven talent that is on the roster. There are also times when unrealistic expectations are created that are a long shot. When it comes to the rookie wideout in Coleman, there are two realistic and two unrealistic expectations that are in place for him.
Here are two realistic and two unrealistic expectations for Keon Coleman in 2024.
#1 Realistic Expectation: Lead Buffalo in red zone receiving touchdowns
With Joe Brady officially calling the offense on a full-time basis, Bills fans should have an understanding as to how the offense will perform next season. Brady has shown a scheme where he gets most if not all weapons involved, not just one main weapon. Buffalo’s expected starting wide receivers for Week 1 are Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Khalil Shakier. They also have Dalton Kincaid and James Cook who are safety valves for Josh Allen in the passing game.
Part of the reason why the Bills may have drafted Coleman when they did is because of his contested catch ability. He has the size and hands to go up for a jump ball and come down with it successfully. Should the Bills get into the red zone and in need of a score, it is a realistic expectation that Coleman could lead the Bills in the red zone receiving touchdowns if Allen throws it up to him.
#2 Realistic Expectation: Lead all rookie WRs in production
This realistic expectation doesn’t mean that he will be the best overall rookie wideout, but Coleman is just one of the few receivers from this draft class who landed in a great spot. Aside from him, the only other top receivers that landed in potential great spots are Marvin Harrison Jr. with the Arizona Cardinals and Xavier Worthy with the Kansas City Chiefs. Production can be different things, but it should not be too much for Coleman to be the most productive wide receiver out of all the rookies.
When you have a quarterback who can throw it the length of the football field, it is up to the receiver to get the opportunity to make a big play. Coleman has the talent to make a lot of plays for the Bills and ultimately, he very well could be a steal for the Bills if he pans out. His rookie season will be a good tone setter for his career.
#1 Unrealistic Expectation: Become Josh Allen’s immediate number one target
With the way that Joe Brady operates his offense, it is a week-to-week basis as to who will be the most productive weapon for the Bills. We saw it in the second half of the last season with guys like Khalil Shakir, James Cook, even running back Ty Johnson at one point looked like the best offensive Bills player. One thing is for sure, there is never one true go-to guy which is part of the reason why Stefon Dggs’ production took a massive hit after Week 6.
With Coleman, there is an expectation that he gets involved with the passing game early and often, but Bills fans cannot expect Coleman to be Allen’s number one target. Last season, we noticed an uptick in production by Khalil Shakir who has a legitimate argument to be Allen’s go-to guy going into 2024. This is not an Allen-to-Diggs combo where the two should connect immediately right off the bat, as Allen and Diggs did in 2020. There will be some growing pains for Coleman but that is where having Shakir, Curtis Samuel, and Dalton Kincaid are helpful.
#2 Unrealistic Expectation: Become a Top 10 wide receiver in the league
In recent memory, there have only been two rookie wide receivers who established themselves as arguably Top 10 receivers in the league, Ja’Marr Chase in 2021 and Puka Nacua last season with the Los Angeles Rams. Unless Coleman gets off to a fast and hot start right out of the gate, there should be no expectation that Coleman becomes a Top 10 receiver in the NFL in his rookie season.
There are too many other receivers that deserve that respect. While Coleman has the chance to become one in the future, becoming one in his rookie season is not a realistic expectation.