It's the Buffalo Bills offseason and times are slow. Sometimes I sit at home, scrolling through my latest notifications, where I'm reminded a Super Bowl is being played still. I don't think I've ever been more disinterested in the Super Bowl than I am this year. Regardless, my focus is still on the Buffalo Bills, where it will remain all summer long. I'll still watch the big game, only because I haven't missed one since the San Franciso 49ers got the best of the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl XXIII back in January of 1989.
That said, I'm all in on the Buffalo Bills offseason, which means following the rookies from the Senior Bowl, diving into possible options in free agency for the Bills, and the upcoming NFL Draft. I'll be all over the NFL Combine too but for now, we're all about upcoming free agency. We know the Bills have 21 pending free agents and the team is roughly, $50 million over the cap. First of all, there are ways to get below the cap, and I have no doubt Brandon Beane will get it done. I mean, he has to, he doesn't have a choice. The choice is, of the Bills pending free agents, who stays and who goes?
So, I was working on some things for the podcast this week and thought to myself. I wonder what AI thinks about the Bills free agent situation. I've written a couple of other articles based on AI's opinion and find it interesting to dig into that. I know some people are creeped out by AI but maybe I'm crazy and think it's cool to have a conversation. The other two I recently wrote were a prediction of the Bills/Chiefs game (which by the way, AI picked the Bills, so there goes credibility out the window) and the other was a five-round Buffalo Bills mock draft.
This time around, I asked AI five questions about the Bills free agency in the coming weeks and what they should do about certain players, either free agents or players currently under contract that might become salary cap casualties. So, let's get into it.
Should the Buffalo Bills resign A.J. Epenesa?
One of the other writers here at BuffaLowDown recently wrote his thoughts about whether the Bills should re-sign Epenesa, but what does AI think about the possibility of resigning Epenesa? AI presented several points on the "resign Epenesa front", including his age and versatility. Epenesa is only 25 years old and still has room to grow and further develop but he also can play inside or on the edge. AI also mentioned that Epenesa's familiarity with the other players, coaches, and the scheme are other major factors to consider, and he could be relatively affordable. Spotrac.com currently has Epenesa's market value listed at $5.6 million.
Of course, AI had to give the negatives too, and why the Bills maybe shouldn't resign Epenesa, starting with his lack of consistent production. Yes, Epenesa's recorded his second season of 6.5 sacks as part of a defensive line rotation, but those numbers seem to come in bunches. I've often referred to Epenesa as the defense's version of Gabe Davis. Sometimes he comes through for a big game but then disappears for a few games. Another factor here is that the Bills have other position needs as well, so the Bills could decide to go another direction and instead rebuild their defensive line through the draft.
Who could be potential cap casualties in 2024?
AI didn't pull any punches here, listing Von Miller as a potential cap casualty. I think most fans understand how unlikely this is due to the massive dead cap, over $32 million, he would carry if the team relieved themselves of him this offseason. One thing AI mentioned that could happen is a renegotiation of his contract but that is equally unlikely to happen, as Miller would have to agree to this.
Two other players AI called out as possible cap casualties were Tre'Davious White and Jordan Poyer. With White, a post-June 1 cut means savings on the 2024 cap of a little more than $10 million but the Bills would be hit with a dead cap in 2024 of $6.2 million and $4.1 million in 2025. With Poyer, the numbers are significantly less but if the team moved on after June 1, they'd save $5.4 million, with a dead cap hit of $2 million in 2024.
What 2024 NFL free agents should the Buffalo Bills pursue?
We know Brandon Beane will be busy shopping the isles for some bargain deals, much like he found last season with Leonard Floyd and Poona Ford. This offseason shouldn't be any different, given the Bills' cap situation, but AI has some suggestions, starting with edge defenders Yannick Ngakoue and Dante Fowler Jr. Personally, for my money, give me Ngakoue, who is only 28 as of now and I think he could be productive under Coach McDermott and the Bills' coaching staff.
As far as the interior of the defensive line, AI believes the Bills should go after D.J. Reader. I love the idea of adding Reader to the Bills defensive line; however, Spotrac.com has his market value projected at $14.9 million. I think this may be too high priced for Buffalo, especially if they can bring back DaQuan Jones for 2024, more on Jones from AI later.
Which Bills free agents should Buffalo try to retain?
This is probably not a popular opinion among Bills Mafia but AI believes Buffalo needs to re-sign Gabe Davis but does question if this will be possible. It all comes down to if there is a team that is willing to overpay him thinking they could get more out of him in their respective system. AI seems to like Davis' big-play capability, as a reason the Bills should try to re-sign him.
Two other players mentioned by AI are Micah Hyde and Leonard Floyd. I think Floyd is a must, despite the lack of production down the stretch but if Buffalo can get him on a team-friendly deal with incentives, I think having him back would be fantastic; however, I have concerns with his age. As far as Hyde goes, I don't see this one as an option at all. So far, it seems very likely that he is going to retire and call it a career.
Should the bills do everything they can to re-sign DaQuan Jones?
I think DaQuan Jones has become a fan favorite and rightfully so. During the first four weeks of the 2023 season, Jones was playing at an All-Pro level; however, his season was put on hold for the majority of the season afterward due to the injury. Yes, Jones got back in time for the playoffs but AI brought up a very significant point, actually two of them. Jones is 32 years old and over the last two seasons, has dealt with injuries that cost the Bills.
In 2022, Jones missed the Cincinnati playoff game due to an injury and we know about this past season. Same as with Leonard Floyd, age has to be a concern but his impact on the defensive line cannot be understated, as pointed out by AI. Other factors to weigh when considering re-signing Jones are the leadership he brings, as well as his familiarity with the defense. I think if the Bills could get him on another one-year deal but loaded with incentives, it would be a win for the team.