Let me start this off by saying these five guys I'm listing here are not five that I don't want to return but five that I think either the Bills choose to let walk or simply won't be able to match another offer. A couple of these players I would like to have back on the roster in 2024 but I don't think it'll happen. We've talked already many times about the number of players on the current roster that are free agents and we've talked about players that I don't think will return but this list is strictly about the pending free agents.
The Bills have 21 upcoming free agents, 14 of which are on the defensive side. Eight of those 14 are on the defensive line. I know a lot of fans don't want to hear this but expect this year's draft to be heavy on the defensive side of the ball. I'll be putting out my mock drafts here soon, but I recently did a mock draft that was selected by AI, and it played out that most of the picks were defensive too.
The Bills will be back in the thick of things next season and that's one of the things I like about the Bills organization. It's a group that I believe will never rest and always continue to tweak the roster via trades, the draft, and free agency. The concern many fans have this offseason is the salary cap. The Bills are more than $50 million over the cap; however, player contracts will be restructured, and moves will be made to get the team under. There will be some salary cap casualties that we previously talked about but here are five of the 21 free agents the Buffalo Bills will not re-sign.
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Gabe Davis - Wide receiver
Let me start by saying I like Davis and think he could play a role on the Bills roster, but I don't see that role as the Bills number two wide receiver. My hope is the Bills draft one or two wide receivers in the coming draft, including one in the first round and I would not be against Buffalo re-signing Davis, but I think there will be other teams offering him more money than what the Bills will or can offer.
Who knows, perhaps in a different place, under a different scheme, he could thrive. According to spotrac.com, Davis' market value is projected at $13.6 million, so again, I don't think the Bills are going to be willing to re-sign him for that amount, instead possibly preferring to spend that elsewhere, maybe another receiver. Maybe a Tyler Boyd for a projected market value of $8.7 million.
Tyrel Dodson - Linebacker
Dodson is another player I like a lot and hope the Bills can bring him back. He played great this season when called upon after the Matt Milano injury ended his season and was Pro Football Focus' second highest-graded linebacker in 2023, behind San Francisco's Fred Warner. I think the problem with bringing him back is two-fold.
One is of course the money. Like with Gabe Davis, there will be a team or two that will offer him more money than what the Bills will or can match. The difference is with Matt Milano coming back in 2024, Dodson will be likely a backup to both Terrel Bernard and Milano, while there will be teams offering him starter money, with the opportunity to become a full-time starter. The one caveat to this could be the Bills' hiring a new defensive coordinator who might want to change things to a more conventional 4 - 3 defense, which I doubt will happen, but anything is possible.
Micah Hyde - Safety
I feel like I'm kind of cheating by including Hyde here but he's a free agent and not likely to return. That's because all signs are pointing him to retirement, rather than just not being re-signed. I have no doubt the Bills would be ready to bring him back for one last shot to partner with Jordan Poyer, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen.
The fans have been saying for the majority of the season that Hyde isn't the same player he once was, particularly before the neck injury and he later suffered a stinger that probably scared him too. Hyde commented during post-game interviews that it was a struggle to go out there every game day but he battled for the team. For what he's done for the Bills over the last seven years, I would love if the team put his name on the Bills Ring of Honor.
Trent Sherfield - Wide receiver
Going into the 2023 season, the only two receivers on the roster were Khalil Shakir and Stefon Diggs. This next season, those two are under contract, as is Deonte Harty. I think the Bills could very well release Harty to save some money, choose not to re-sign Sherfield and rebuild the wide receiver room through some new free agent additions and one, hopefully, two in the draft.
Sherfield just never became a solid addition to the offense this season and was a big disappointment in the divisional round against the Chiefs. Personally, if Davis was in the game, those two deep throws to Sherfield would have been Davis and who knows if we're having a different discussion today about the Bills season.
Tim Settle - Defensive Tackle
The Bills will need to try to retain a couple of these defensive tackles, given that only Ed Oliver is currently under contract for the 2024 season. I went back and forth between Settle and Poona Ford. I ultimately settled on Ford coming back and having a larger role on the team next season as part of the rotation with Oliver and (hopefully) DaQuan Jones. I know Jones is also a free agent but he's on my list of players the Bills need to re-sign, and I think they will.
We've seen what Settle brings to the team and it's not much more or less than what Ford brings but with Ford he could continue to grow in this defense in year two. Settle has two years here and not much has changed. Plus, Settle's average annual for 2023 was $4.5 million to Ford's $2.25 million. Ford can likely be had at a cheaper cost, which is important to the Bills this offseason.