The Buffalo Bills continue to make calculated moves this offseason. The end game is to take a quarterback early. Here are trades that will get it done.
As the Buffalo Bills continue to alter their roster, using free agency and trades, there is one central focus in mind. The Bills are positioning themselves to grab a top quarterback.
They understand what needs to be done to secure a top five pick. To move up, a team usually trades away a bulk of their draft picks. The common term is “mortgaging their future.”
When a team does that, they must look to free agency to add pieces to replace those draft picks. That is exactly what the Bills have done so far this offseason.
Signing Star Lotulelei, Kyle Williams and Trent Murphy fills big needs along the defensive line. They signed Chris Ivory to help provide more power to the run game.
They also signed AJ McCarron. McCarron will allow the young quarterback to grow from the sideline for an appropriate amount of time. Whoever is drafted will learn from day one how to prepare like a professional without the pressure of performing Week 1.
There are four quarterbacks currently being mentioned in the top five conversation (Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen).
(I have previously written scouting reports (pre-combine) on each of the quarterbacks which can be found here.)
Each quarterback offers a different set of tools to the team that selects them early in round one. Whoever gets drafted by the Bills will get a chance to compete with AJ McCarron and Nathan Peterman for the starting position.
But first, the Bills need to make the jump into the top of round one. Let’s look at which trade packages could be offered and what trade partner would be the best value.
(All trades were calculated based on the NFL draft value chart.)
New York Giants: No. 2 Overall
Connections?
Dave Gettleman worked with Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane from 2013-2016 in Carolina.
Potential offer?
Bills Trade: No. 12, 22, 56, 96 overall picks & Shaq Lawson.
Giants Trade: No. 2 overall pick.
Why would New York trade down?
The Giants may believe that Eli Manning has a few good years left in the tank. In a year where several quarterbacks are expected to go early, New York can turn the No. 2 overall pick into a hefty bundle of draft picks.
In this scenario, the Giants would receive four total picks and a player of need (two firsts, one second, and one third). The trade could help invigorate Manning during his last years in the league.
As presently constructed, the Giants are missing several pieces. Trading down will give them the ammo to reload.
The team is one year removed from a 11-5 season, and they will get Odell Beckham Jr. back from injury. Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram form a young receiving corps that can be dangerous for the next couple seasons.
Only thing missing on the offensive side of the ball is interior offensive linemen, which is a strength in this year’s draft.
If you watched a Giants game last year, you know they need to find players that play with passion and aggression on defense. It seemed like players checked out and tackling wasn’t an emphasis with the last coaching staff.
They have already made moves, cutting Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and trading for Alec Ogletree. They could use defensive playmakers like Denzel Ward and Rashaan Evans, players that will be available in the middle of the first round.
Likelihood of happening? 5%
The Bills may be hesitant to trade all that value. At No. 2 overall, they will get their pick at quarterback, but the price may be too much. They can get better value if they opt to trade to another spot.
The Giants may be in love with a prospect like Saquon Barkley or Quenton Nelson. One will be there at number No. 2, so they may opt to take their guy.
Indianapolis Colts: No. 3 Overall
Possible Connections?
Frank Reich is near and dear in Buffalo’s heart. He was a Bills quarterback from 1985-1994.
Since Josh McDaniels bailed on the Colts head coaching job, Chris Ballard may want to help the Bills get their guy out of spite for the Patriots.
Potential Offer?
Bills Trade: No. 12, 22, 65, 166 overall picks.
Colts Trade: No. 3 overall pick.
(Bills could opt to trade Shaq Lawson due to scheme fit. Also, could keep pick 22 and offer next year’s first-round pick if Colts aren’t firm on their price.)
Why would Indianapolis trade down?
The Colts may opt to trade down because they already have their quarterback, Andrew Luck. His shoulder health will be key in their draft strategy.
Trading down could net some extra security for Luck’s health. They can draft pass catchers and lineman to help him get rid of the ball and avoid unnecessary shots. Those late picks will help them with draft flexibility if they want to move back up to grab a guy.
Defensively, the Colts are a bit of a mess. Staying at No. 3 could net them an elite talent like Bradley Chubb.
Opting to trade down would still offer them a chance to draft a stud linebacker and pass rusher in this year’s draft class. Marcus Davenport and Leighton Vander Esch would give their front seven a added boost at picks No. 12 and No. 22.
Likelihood of happening? 40%
I believe this is the right move to make. The Bills will keep both of their second-round picks while getting their quarterback at three. It is the dream scenario.
The Colts could value having two first-round picks. They will need as many picks as possible to catch up with the Texans, Titans and Jaguars.
Cleveland Browns: No. 4 Overall
Possible Connections?
Bills have already traded with Cleveland this offseason. I’m sure draft day trades were discussed.
Potential Offer?
Bills Trade: No. 12, 53, 65 overall picks.
Browns Trade: No. 4 overall pick.
Why would Cleveland trade down?
Let me start by saying, I highly doubt the Browns will shop the first overall pick. They will either grab Saquon Barkley or a quarterback at one, then consider trading No. 4.
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In this scenario, the Browns would have to select their quarterback with the first pick.
Once Cleveland has their quarterback of the future (Sorry Tyrod), they would consider dealing this pick.
Cleveland has demonstrated in the past that they aren’t afraid of moving up and down the draft board. Moving down will allow them to add more talented pieces in the second and third round.
If they trade down they may look to the defensive side of the ball. Their defense left a lot to be desired last year and their focus this offseason has been strictly offense.
Likelihood of happening? 35%
The Bills would only need to trade one of their two first-round picks, so the trade offers tremendous value. Their guy may still be there at No. 4 if they choose to make this deal.
The Browns have been extremely active this offseason and added tons of talent. The likely scenario is to draft a quarterback at No. 1 and trade pick No. 4 to the highest bidder. The Bills will be first in line.
Denver Broncos: No. 5 Overall
Possible Connection?
None of significance.
Potential Offer?
Bills Trade: No. 12, 53, 96, 166 overall picks.
Broncos Trade: No. 5 and 182 overall picks.
Why would Denver trade down?
The Broncos have opted to sign Case Keenum to a two-year deal and he will be there starter going into next season.
Only signing Keenum for two years may be an indicator that the Broncos are still thinking about drafting a young QB.
I believe they will add a quarterback to their roster, but it will be a guy in the second or third round. I think Elway gets a little more credit than he deserves, so this year could change that perception if he could hit on his picks.
The Broncos have been tapped as a team that is a quarterback away from contending. Since they got their quarterback, they could trade back and add depth throughout their roster.
Those extra mid-round picks will add some youth to a team that has begun to age. Without many glaring weaknesses, the Broncos would be smart to turn their top asset into many quality players.
Likelihood of happening? 20%
The only reason the odds aren’t higher is because the Bills will want to get into the top three to secure their guy. The trade would be great value for both teams if it did go down.
Next: Why the Bills will draft Josh Rosen
If the Broncos fall in love with a guy like Josh Allen, this pick will not be traded. If they like Mason Rudolph, they will be hoping for the phone to ring.