Josh Rosen has all the tools to be a franchise quarterback in the NFL, and the Buffalo Bills will draft him in the 2018 NFL Draft.
The quarterback position has been an issue for the Buffalo Bills since Jim Kelly retired. Buffalo has had numerous swings at finding a franchise QB, but have missed each and every time.
Tyrod Taylor is no longer part of the picture as he was traded to the Cleveland Browns for a 2018 third-round pick Friday evening. The team was also rumored to be the team that offered a second for Philadelphia Eagles backup quarterback Nick Foles. Also, Nathan Peterman is still on the roster.
However, it appears the team is loading up to take a quarterback in a strong 2018 NFL Draft class. After acquiring a third-round pick to replace the one the team sent away in the Kelvin Benjamin trade, it looks like the team wants to make a trade to the top of the draft to get one of the top prospects this year.
There is one prospect in this year’s draft that has been connected to the Bills more than others. That man is named Josh Rosen.
The team has been linked to the former UCLA Bruin and Brandon Beane has time and time again talked about what they look for in a quarterback. Josh Rosen fits that bill and has appeared to be nailing his pre-draft meetings.
Taking a further look at Rosen, we can see how special he is and why the Bills will draft him this April.
The Physical Tools
Rosen checks all of the boxes physically. He checked in at the combine at 6-foot-4 and 226 pounds with a 111 inch broad jump, 31 inch vertical jump, and ran a 4.92 second 40-yard dash time. When you watch him play, he is poised, stands tall in the pocket, and looks so fluid with every pass. His mechanics are flawless.
When you watch his film, he rarely looks off-balance. His ability to set his feet, plant, and drive the ball to his intended receiver with his large frame showcases his arm and quick release. He stands tall in the pocket and will take major hits to deliver the ball.
The California native also often showcases his touch. He regularly puts the ball right where the receiver needs it to be and has a knack for hitting receivers in stride deep down the field. His accuracy to every level of the field blows you away.
If you watched the combine, you saw players with weaker arms throw timing routes where they would release the ball well before a receiver got out of their break to get it there in time. Other players with stronger arms, such as Josh Allen, were able to zip the ball in after the break and were able to compensate. Josh Rosen is a mix of both.
Though a polished passer, Rosen is not an outstanding athlete. He isn’t the fastest, but he is mobile. Think of Peyton Manning or Tom Brady when they are being rushed. They aren’t a threat to take off and run, but they have a unique ability to step up, avoid rushes, and deliver a ball and move the chains.
The Issues
With size, production, mechanics, and smarts to be the guy on most NFL rosters, why would there be any issues? What could there be that has teams turned off from the UCLA standout?
For one, Rosen comes from a wealthy family. His father is one of the best surgeons in California and both of his parents are Ivy League school educated. His great-great-great grandfather was a business tycoon and established the Wharton School of Business. For whatever reason, some immediately label him as entitled.
Next are the “off the field” issues of wearing a hat that said “F**k Trump” on a Donald Trump owned golf course and Rosen putting a hot tub in his room freshman year. But he isn’t getting in trouble for doing drugs or drinking.
Perhaps the most baffling “character” issues are that he has a mind of his own. When asked his opinion on topics, Rosen often gives a well thought out and educated responses. He isn’t afraid to voice those opinions, and that is where NFL front offices and media members are turned off.
They view it as Rosen not caring about football because that isn’t all he thinks about. He has other plans after football and cares about the environment and politics. That doesn’t fit with some team’s agendas.
However, I think those are terrible reasons to pass on a player. At times Josh Rosen can be a little brash, but he is not doing anything illegal or causing issues. He is participating in society and formulating educated opinions. His dedication to understanding why things work may help with involvement in the community or make a difference off the football field.
On the field, Rosen’s sophomore season ended prematurely due to a shoulder injury that required surgery. He also has been diagnosed with a pair of concussions. If he passes all of the physicals through the pre-draft visits, I believe there should be zero concerns about his health.
The Production
When it comes to his stats, you can check that box off too. Last season at UCLA, Rosen started 11 games and threw for 3,756, 26 touchdowns, a 62.6 completion percentage, and a 147.0 quarterback rating. Those may not seem like the most impressive stats, but if you saw the talent around him, you would be impressed with those stats as well.
Rosen was a starter as a true freshman at UCLA where he played in 13 games, threw for 3,669 yards, 23 touchdowns, and a 60.0 completion percentage. Before his season ended early during his sophomore year, he threw for 1,915 yards, 10 touchdowns and a 59.3 completion percentage.
Throughout his career, Rosen has been productive. He has lacked big time weapons while at UCLA, and his offensive line has been questionable at times. His production would have been better if he was able to stay healthy, instead of missing time because of injuries. However, he still showed why he was elite due to his mechanics and smarts.
The biggest knock against Rosen on the field are the interceptions. While he is extremely accurate he threw 11 interceptions his first season at UCLA, which is understandable because he was a freshman. But as a junior where you expect growth from a player, he threw 10.
He will have to work on decision-making at the next level, but with his accuracy paired with a better line and receivers on the outside, I believe he will take much better care of the ball.
The Fit
Rosen is the most pro-ready quarterback in the class. His accuracy to all levels, natural abilities within the pocket, experience in a pro-system, strong arm, ability to play under center, and field vision make him a rare prospect. He can step right into an offense and not miss a beat.
All of this has to be appealing to the Bills. Not only can Rosen quickly process reads and diagnose defenses, but he has the physical gifts to be able to get the ball wherever it needs to go. With Brian Daboll taking over as offensive coordinator, he will love having a player with Rosen’s skill-set to step in and pick up his offense.
After watching Rosen’s tape from the USC game, he does not back down in the big games – something that can’t be said for every Bills QB over the past several seasons. He went toe-to-toe with Sam Darnold and the 11tg ranked Trojans and had the Bruins within a touchdown at the end of the game.
Not saying the Bills have played in the biggest of games over the years with the highest stakes, but it shows that when it comes down to it, Rosen is a gamer. He also showed that off when he led his team to one of the biggest comebacks in college football history against Texas A&M. Down 38-10, Rosen and UCLA came all the way back to win the game, 45-44.
If you don’t think he cares about football, look at how he reacted when he threw the game winning touchdown pass on a fake spike against A&M. If you don’t think his teammates love him, then look at how they swarm him when he gets to the sideline.
The point is he shows up in big games and his guys love him because he will take the big hit and make the big throw. It has been awhile since we have been able to say that about a Bills quarterback.
Throughout watching the USC game, you can see the different types of sets and schemes that Rosen can handle. He can run a RPO type offense, or a traditional type of offense that the team may want. He played snaps under center, out of the gun, and in multiple formations. That makes him appealing to a new, young, and innovative offensive coordinator.
Buffalo has clearly shown their interest in Rosen through scouting and their vocal interest in bringing him to One Bills Drive for a pre-draft meeting. It has also been rumored that the Bills are doing their homework on moving up for a quarterback, and Rosen is that guy.
The Draft
Six picks in the first three rounds is an outstanding job by Brandon Beane in acquiring pieces to do whatever he wants. He can stay where he is with each pick, move one or two for players, or move several of them and players to move up.
He did an amazing job getting a third-round pick for Tyrod and unloading the $6 million roster bonus due at the beginning of the new league year. That pick makes up for the third he sent to the Carolina Panthers in exchange for Kelvin Benjamin.
The more that time passes and as we inch closer to the draft, the more I am convinced that Buffalo will make a move into the top five. They have the picks (six in the first three rounds) and the players (Cordy Glenn, Shaq Lawson, Charles Clay) to pair with those picks to move up.
It also doesn’t hurt that Brandon Beane has good relationships with teams in the top five.
To begin with, Beane was the assistant general manager under New York Giants new general manager Dave Gettleman for years in Carolina. The Giants recently traded away draft picks for Alec Ogletree and have little cap space.
New York also has a hole at left tackle, so the Bills could send away Glenn and a package of cost controlled picks to fill a depth-deficient team like the Giants who are in win-now mode. The Bills could also afford to take the dead cap hit of trading Glenn thanks to trading away Tyrod. The Giants own the second overall pick.
Related Story: QB Class of 2018 (pre-combine breakdown)
Buffalo could also call the Browns again at fourth overall to swap picks. After sending a plethora of picks away on Friday for proven NFL talent, Cleveland could look to add more impact talent by picking up two additional firsts and an instant starter like Glenn.
There are several options for Beane and McDermott at the draft, and I think the option they take is the one that leads them to the top.
The Process
The Bills will draft Josh Rosen. They will trade up, send away a bunch of picks, and select their franchise quarterback.
In my opinion, this is the top guy in this class and he is the quarterback the Bills need. They need him not only because he is an elite-level talent at the most important position in sports, but because I believe his personality is not one that will crumble with the immense pressure in being the franchise guy.
Trading back to acquire assets last season at the draft was part of the process. Keeping Tyrod was part of the process. Moving on from players to bring in more assets was part of the process. Trading away Tyrod to recoup a lost asset was part of the process. Drafting Josh Rosen is a huge part of the process.
Buffalo hasn’t made all these moves just to sit on their assets and take players. They knew there was potentially a deep quarterback class this upcoming draft and planned accordingly. Instead of selecting a player last year that they thought may be a reach or taking one just because they need one, (see EJ Manuel), the team opted to wait and begin a process.
With the team signing free agents before free agency starts, they are not messing with their compensatory pick for next year’s draft. The team could easily take a step back next year while Rosen develops, gather several extra picks that may be higher, and then build up the team while they have their franchise guy in place.
All-in-all, this team now clearly has a hole at the quarterback position. They have all of the pieces necessary to move up and the relationships at the top of the first to get there.
Next: 2018 full first-round mock draft
I absolutely believe that the Bills will move to where they need to go and select the franchise quarterback this team has so desperately been waiting for in Josh Rosen.