The Buffalo Bills have a massive game coming up this weekend against the 11 - 5 Miami Dolphins. A lot is on the line for both these teams, as they will be battling for not only the division but playoff seeding and in the case of the Bills, possibly a playoff berth. There is a scenario where the Bills can still get in if they lose this game but that requires help from elsewhere. The Bills need to simply take care of business, beat the Dolphins, and advance to the playoffs.
The last time these two teams faced each other, it was all Buffalo. The game started with back-and-forth scores, as both teams put up touchdowns on each of their first two drives. However, the Bills' defense put the clamps on the Dolphins after that, allowing the Dolphins to score just one more touchdown the rest of the way, in a 48 - 20 blowout.
What can we expect from this weekend, more of the same, a tighter contest, or will the Dolphins find a way to potentially end the Bills playoff hopes? As I said, a lot is riding on this game for both teams. Also, interestingly enough, it wasn't that long ago that the Bills were in a similar position, as far as winning the division. In 2021, they needed to defeat the New York Jets in Week 18 to win the AFC East. Let's get this Buffalo and snag that two seed. Now, here are my five major storylines.
The Miami Dolphins are beat up and the Bills are finally getting healthy
Not only did Baltimore beat the Dolphins on the scoreboard, but they beat them up physically too. Tua Tagovailoa was injured but sounds like he'll be good to go. The bigger loss was Bradley Chubb, after suffering an ACL injury, he's out for the season. The Dolphins already lost Jaelan Phillips for the season and Xavien Howard and Raheem Mostert are out as well. To add insult to injury, the Dolphins may be without Jaylen Waddle too.
I don't have much sympathy for the Dolphins though. The Bills have had their share of injuries this year and last. Early season injuries to Tre White, Matt Milano, and DaQuan Jones caused the Bills defense to take a few steps back. However, the mid-season trade that brought Rasul Douglas has been huge in replacing White, Tyrel Dodson has been solid since mid-season and now Jones is back. Micah Hyde and A.J. Epenesa are both back in the fold as well and Kaiir Elam was activated to the 53-man roster since returning from IR.
The Bills offense is struggling again, and now is the time to get on track
The Buffalo Bills fired Ken Dorsey several weeks ago and almost right away the offense looked better and was rolling. Newly hired offensive coordinator Joe Brady seemed to get James Cook involved and we saw Dalton Kincaid start to get an uptick (coincidentally, this timed up with the Dawson Knox injury). Over the last two weeks though, the offense has struggled again. Scoring only 24 and 27, respectively, in the last two games.
While most teams would be excited about averaging over 25 points per game, in those two games, the Bills have turned the ball over four times and are averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. They averaged only 308 total yards of offense. Maybe the problem wasn't Ken Dorsey. Maybe the issue is the players need to execute, not drop passes, and not turn the ball over. It sounds like the same things I was saying before Dorsey was fired.
Dalton Kincaid needs only three receptions to set another Bills record
Dalton Kincaid has already set a few Bills records, including most receptions by a rookie and most yards by a rookie tight end too. Last week, he recorded four receptions, giving him 66 on the year, one more than former Bills wide receiver Sammy Watkins did his rookie season. If Kincaid gets three receptions against the Miami Dolphins, he'll set the Bills' record for the most receptions in a season by a tight end. If he can get 138 yards receiving, he would set the record for most yards by a tight end too.
I've always been a fan of Dawson Knox, but the Bills need to get back into 11-personnel more often, let the two-tight end sets go, and feature Kincaid as the number one tight end. He's a matchup nightmare and someone opposing defenses has to game plan for. He's a weapon that the Bills need to start targeting at least 8-plus times a game.
Von Miller has been non-existent and was a "healthy" scratch last week
Leonard Floyd is having a great season, A.J. Epenesa returned from injury and Greg Rousseau has been solid this season, albeit more in run defense. However, against the Patriots there were no sacks by any of the defensive ends. So, do the Bills scratch Miller again or do they bring him back in hopes that he can make an impact?
The return of DaQuan Jones should help this week now that he's got a game under his belt against the Patriots. The question will be whether the Bills increase his snaps this week against the Dolphins or keep him around the 28 snaps he had last week. His ability to push the pocket could be massive against Miami.
Stefon Diggs usage remains far below the norm
Against the Patriots, Diggs logged only 45 total snaps, which was about 65 percent of the snap share. He was out-snapped by Khalil Shakir (55) and Gabe Davis (63). Through the first eight games, Diggs had 64 receptions, the last eight, only 36 receptions.
The fans have questioned if Diggs is injured and trying to play through it but the team is saying that's not the case. Is the team cutting his snaps back in preparation for the playoffs? I suppose that could be, but the Bills have essentially been in playoff mode for more than a month now, so doesn't seem logical to cut back on your best offensive player, not named Josh Allen, snap count.