For close to two decades, the New England Patriots ran the AFC East as they would win the division 17 times out of 19 seasons. However, the departure of Tom Brady in 2020 ended the Patriots dominance but it was the Buffalo Bills that seemed to step right into that role.
The Bills have won the AFC East four seasons in a row now and will be looking for their fifth straight division title this season. This might be their toughest season yet though as they have gone through significant changes due to salary cap issues while also entering the season with Joe Brady officially taking over as offensive coordinator and Bobby Babich stepping in as defensive coordinator.
Similar to last season, the Miami Dolphins are certainly a threat to the Buffalo Bills while the New York Jets should be more competitive as long as Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy. As for the New England Patriots at this point of the offseason seemingly are very far behind the other three teams.
Now that most of the offseason moves are done at this point, the rosters are pretty much set for the division. With that in mind, let's make record predictions for the Buffalo Bills and the rest of the AFC East.
4th: New England Patriots
2024 Record Prediction: 4-13 (1-5 AFC East Division Record)
For the first time since the 1990s, the New England Patriots will not have Bill Belichick on the sidelines coaching their team. The Patriots have not really been able to be competitive under Belichick since Brady left and this past season was the end to an incredible run.
The Patriots tried to keep things as consistent as possible and would replace him with Jerod Mayo, who was linebacker coach for New England for four seasons. Mayo would bring in former Buffalo Bills quarterback Alex Van Pelt to run the offense and promoted DeMarcus Covington to defensive coordinator.
They made a big change at quarterback as they traded former first-round pick Mac Jones to the Jacksonville Jaguars and would use their Top 5 draft pick on quarterback Drake Maye. However, not much else has changed and with Maye likely to start at some point this season, it's tough to see them have much success.
The Patriots probably will steal one division win this season, in my opinion that will be against the Miami Dolphins, but they are seemingly headed towards another Top 5 pick.
3rd: Miami Dolphins
2024 Record Prediction: 9-8 (3-3 AFC East Division Record)
The Miami Dolphins looked like they were on their way to winning their first AFC East since the 2008 season but would come up short at home in Week 18 against the Bills. The win by Buffalo would be just what they needed to secure their fourth straight AFC East title.
It has been an interesting offseason for the Miami Dolphins as they have probably the best collection of offensive playmakers in the league from Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane at running back, along with a trio of wide receivers in Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill and Odell Beckham Jr.
The concern lies in front of Tua Tagovailoa as the offensive line is very questionable with Robert Hunt leaving in free agency and left tackle Terron Armstead struggling to stay healthy later in his career. Meanwhile on the defensive side of the ball, the Dolphins lost Christian Wilkins, Brandon Jones, and Xavien Howard this offseason.
There is certainly a scenario where the Dolphins could end up winning 13 games but the schedule does them no favors with home games against the Jaguars and Bills before a cross-country trip to play the Seahawks. The end of the season isn't much better with road games against the Packers, Texans, Browns, and Jets with a home game against the 49ers in the middle of that.
2nd: New York Jets
2024 Record Prediction: 10-7 (4-2 AFC East Division Record)
Last season was supposed to be the Jets year but it seemed to end before it even got started with Aaron Rodgers lasting less than five plays before suffering a torn Achilles. The former MVP is healthy and expectations once again are high.
These predictions are assuming that Rodgers does stay healthy all season, and if he does, the Jets are going to be competing for the division for almost the entire season. They have added to their offensive line Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses at tackle along with giving Rodgers another weapon in Mike Williams at wide receiver.
The Jets are still going to have an outstanding defense, especially if Haason Reddick and his contract is able to get worked out. Their schedule is also very manageable as they open the season on the road against the 49ers but don't have really any tough road games outside of divisional games.
If Aaron Rodgers is able to stay healthy throughout the entire season, the Week 17 matchup against the Bills could decide who wins the AFC East. Thankfully for the Bills that game will be played at Highmark Stadium.
AFC East Division Champions: Buffalo Bills
2024 Record Prediction: 11-6 (4-2 AFC East Division Record)
Once again, it will likely come down to the final weeks of the 2024 season but for the fifth straight year the AFC East runs through Buffalo. The Bills are going to look very different this season than past years but the talent is still there to win the division and make another playoff run.
Their success is going to be determined by Josh Allen but he has been a Top 5 quarterback in the NFL the past few seasons and is probably the best quarterback in the AFC East. At this point, the Bills also have the most experienced head coach in Sean McDermott.
It certainly will be interesting how the offense adapts to a more collective effort in the passing game with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis no longer on the roster. However, Allen is going to have plenty of players around him that can be a difference maker like Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, or James Cook.
The defense also is going to be one of the best with players like Ed Oliver, Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, Rasul Douglas, Taron Johnson, and Christian Benford. If Von Miller can bounce back this year, that will only be a bonus.
There is no question that this team will be tested with the schedule they have but they should sweep the Patriots and split the Jets and Dolphins series. After that, there are four games they should win against the Cardinals, Jaguars, Titans, and Colts. The remaining seven games are going to be coin flips but if they can go 3-4 that gets them to 11-6 and a division title.