Ready for watever.
— DIGGS (@stefondiggs) March 15, 2024
Well, Stefon Diggs is causing a stir with a cryptic tweet. This sends Bills Mafia into a frenzy. It also drives the national media back into the hot take factory to mass produce solutions for what the Bills should do with their star wide-out. I’m convinced this is all part of an inside joke with the team that he posts something vague and cryptic just to see the reaction. Dion Dawkins did it.
There is no way Diggs will be traded this season. Per Spotrac, Stefon Diggs has a salary cap hit of $27,854,000. He carries a $49.5 million dead cap number if he is released before June 1. He carries a $31 million dead cap number if he is traded before June 1. If getting Diggs off this team in 2024 is truly what the Bills want then after June 1 is when it will have to happen. A post-June 1 release gives the Bills a $27.3 million dead cap number with a cap savings of $505,000. A trade after June 1 is the only way to make the numbers work, it is $8.8 million in dead cap with a cap savings of $19 million.
Again, there is no way Stefon Diggs is on another team in 2024. 2025 is a potential out for the Bills where a trade or release before June is a $22 million dead cap number and the Bills can save $5 million on the salary cap.
But, what if it truly is that bad behind the scenes? For all we know the team, coaches, or executives could be tired of the drama. What if the Bills want to take the loss and get rid of Diggs now? The top-tier free agent receivers are on new teams. So, the NFL Draft is the next best time to try to make a deal. It will be a tough ask to replace Diggs with an unproven rookie but this is a talent-rich wide receiver class and will take a big swing to land one of those prospects that are projected to go high in the draft.
What a trade for one of the top 3 WR prospects could look like involving the Buffalo Bills' Stefon Diggs
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Projected draft position: Top 5
What it will cost: Stefon Diggs, 2024 1st round pick, 2024 2nd round pick, 2024 5th round pick, 2025 1st round pick, 2025 2nd round pick
What the Bills get: Number 4 overall pick
Draft Tek gives the Bills' draft capital a value of 1,169.1. As much as I would love Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. there is just absolutely no way the Bills can jump from the number 28 overall pick into the top 5 without giving up a Ricky Williams-type haul, INCLUDING Diggs. There are three QB-needy teams in the top three picks in this draft. Arizona at four is a possibility to draft Harrison but a very wide receiver-needy Chargers team at five would be who you would have to worry about. The value of the draft picks in the trade listed above would be 1,836. Arizona’s number four overall pick is valued at 1800.
I can dream but it is too rich for my blood. PFF Draft Big Board has Harrison Jr. the number two overall prospect behind QB Caleb Williams. The Buffalo offense wouldn’t miss a beat with what essentially is a Diggs-for-Harrison swap. However, the depth would be non-existent everywhere else on the team without those draft picks to build up a roster that lost Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Mitch Morse, and Gabe Davis.
Marvin Harrison Jr. has had back-to-back 1,200-yard seasons at Ohio State and was dynamic everywhere he lined up. Versatility is what the Buffalo Bills offense is looking for as proven by the signings of wide receivers Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins. Harrison Jr. has that versatility, speed, good hands, and a Hall of Fame father. He’s an offensive coordinator’s dream and would integrate nicely into an offense with Josh Allen throwing the ball.
Malik Nabers
Projected Draft Position: Picks 6-9
What it would cost: Stefon Diggs, 2024 1st round pick, 2024 2nd round pick, 2025 1st round pick
What the Bills get: Number 8 overall pick
The New York Giants hold the number six pick in this year’s draft valued at 1,600 points. The cost listed above values out to 1,560 plus Stefon Diggs (I put the value of the 2025 draft picks at the value equivalent to the 31st overall pick). Assuming you couldn’t get a deal done to jump the L.A. Chargers at number five, the New York Giants at number six would be the next place to try to land Malik Nabers.
PFF Draft Big Board has Nabers as the number four prospect in this draft. He had 1,568 yards and 14 touchdowns for the LSU Tigers and did it against SEC competition. Nabers would join an impressive list of wide receivers that would’ve come out of LSU like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Odell Beckham Jr., and Jarvis Landry.
I don’t think the Giants would accept this offer mostly because they would want to squeeze the Bills for more, but the Giants have more needs to address and the question of what to do with QB Daniel Jones. I feel the Giants at number six and the Tennessee Titans at number seven would be more willing to trade down with a QB-needy team like Minnesota. Atlanta at number eight would be where I would look to land Nabers.
Rome Odunze
Projected Draft Position: Picks 6-10
What it would cost: Stefon Diggs, 2024 1st round pick, 2025 1st round pick, 2025 3rd round pick
What the Bills get: WR DJ Moore, number 9 overall pick
PFF Draft Big Board has Odunze as the number six overall prospect in this draft. A lot would have to go right for Odunze to fall past the Chargers at five, the Giants at six, and the Falcons at eight. I think the Chicago Bears who hold the number nine pick in this draft is where this trade can be made. The Bears in all likelihood are taking QB Caleb Williams with the number one overall pick. The Bears have WR DJ Moore already and acquired WR Keenan Allen from the Chargers in a trade. I think getting Stefon Diggs and two first-round picks would be enough to pry DJ Moore and the number nine pick away from Chicago.
The number nine pick is valued at 1,350. The draft picks the Bills could potentially send in this trade are valued at 1,380. Per Spotrac, DJ Moore’s cap numbers are favorable for Chicago. A trade before June would carry $0 in dead cap and save the Bears $16 million. The Bills would get another veteran wide receiver to add to the team to take some of the pressure off Odunze.
Rome Odunze in 2022 tallied 1,145 yards and seven touchdowns and only got better in 2023. 1,639 yards and 13 touchdowns with a trip to the National Championship game. There is no question he is a top-ten talent and if Marvin Harrison Jr. wasn’t in this draft Odunze could have been the first receiver off the board. If Odunze is still available at nine, Brandon Beane should pick up the phone and call Bears GM Ryan Poles.