Well, that was certainly an impressive performance from the Buffalo Bills against the Dallas Cowboys. Several players contributed in a big way to the 31 - 10 destruction of the Cowboys but none more than James Cook. We've talked about this game all week here at BuffaLowDown, so I won't spend much time on it, other than to say, this is the type of game we expected from the Bills for months now.
If you remember from last week's playoff scenario article, I mentioned some of the teams that we hoped would lose; however, we didn't get all that we hoped for, but the Pittsburgh Steelers lost, as did the Denver Broncos, which moved the Bills up two spots in the playoff race, from 11th to ninth. We now head into week 16 and only three games remaining and the Bills with a record of 8 - 6.
According to the New York Times playoff machine, Buffalo currently has a 63% chance to make the playoffs. Last week, before all the week 15 games were played, Buffalo was given a 49%, so a bump of 14% after just one week of games. Each week is huge, and each game is the biggest game of the year at this point; however, as I pointed out last week, the Bills don't necessarily have to win out but that would be the easiest and most stress-free. Let's go ahead and get into the playoff scenario updates.
The Buffalo Bills winning the AFC East
The Dolphins' final three games are against the Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, and the Bills. Buffalo is still two games behind the Dolphins, so we are waiting for the Dolphins to drop one more, which I believe they will. I recently predicted the Dolphins will lose all three of their final games and while I think that will happen, it doesn't need to, as long as the Bills keep winning and the Dolphins drop just one, the division will be up for grades in week 18.
If the Bills win the division, they will host at least one playoff game. But what are the odds of Buffalo pulling this off? Many fans still believe Buffalo needs to win out and while that would certainly help, it's not a necessity. A 10 - 7 record, I believe would get you in the playoffs, but it also depends on which game the Bills were to lose and of course, everything can change depending on other teams.
1. Bills win the next three games
If the Bills defeat the Chargers, and Patriots heading into week 18 and the Dolphins lose one of their next two, the Bills will have a 43% chance of winning the division. If the Bills win out and the Dolphins lose one of either the Cowboys or Ravens games, the Bills will win the AFC East for the fourth year in a row and host a playoff game on Wildcard Weekend.
2. Lose one against either the Chargers or Patriots
Just writing the header to this point sounds gross. I just don't see the Bills losing either one of these games, but I'll play devil's advocate here and play the "what if" game. If Buffalo loses one of the next two, they would have only a 12% chance to win the division; however, if my prediction comes to pass and the Dolphins lose both games against the Cowboys and Ravens, then Buffalo's chances remain 43%.
The moral of the story here is to win out and the Buffalo Bills likely win the AFC East for the fourth consecutive time and host a playoff game. Lose just one of the next two and those odds plummet and wildcard is the most likely road to the playoffs for the Bills.
Win out and the Bills will make the playoffs
We just talked about the chances of the Bills winning the division if they win out but if the Dolphins manage to win out as well, what are the odds Buffalo still makes the playoffs? As of right now, the Bills have a 63% chance of making the playoffs, which is unreal considering where they were just a few weeks ago. If the Bills win this weekend against the Chargers, their chances go up to 69%.
If the Bills win the next three, which includes the Chargers and Patriots, the percentage rises to 80%, and defeat the Dolphins in week 18 and those odds are greater than 99%. So, win out and the Bills most likely make the playoffs. With how well this team is playing right now, no AFC team wants the Bills in the playoffs.
Lose to the Chargers but win the final two games
I really don't see this happening at this point but let's say it does. If Buffalo inexplicably drops this one against the Chargers, their odds drop to 27%, so they aren't out of it and it's not out of the question they can still get in, despite what a lot of fans think. A win against the Patriots in week 17, would then increase their odds back up to 31%. Now keep in mind, that this playoff machine takes into account the likelihood of a team beating another. From what I can tell, they don't give the Bills very good odds of beating the Dolphins in week 18, seems that is below 50% odds.
So, to continue with this particular scenario, if the Bills lose this weekend to the Chargers but win the last two, then their playoff odds come in at a solid 73% chance. The bottom line is this, that week 18 showdown with the Dolphins is going to be a massive game, one of epic proportions. It almost seems Buffalo's playoff hopes really hinge on beating Miami in that final game.