The Buffalo Bills (5-3) are heading to Cincinnati to take on Bengals (4-3) for a Sunday night primetime matchup. The last time these two teams met was in the AFC divisional round of the playoffs last year, where the Bengals dominated from the first whistle to the last and coming out victorious 27-10.
The Bengals are currently tied at 4-3 with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, so they will not only be looking to get the tiebreaker on the Bills, but also take sole possession of second place in the division.
The Bills on the other hand remain one game out of first place behind the Miami Dolphins (6-2) and are looking to pickup a win over an AFC powerhouse outside of their division for the first time this season. Both teams have had up-and-down seasons going into this week, but the Bengals have had more success in recent weeks, including a 31-17 victory over the San Francisco 49ers. Meanwhile, the Bills have either barely won at the end of the fourth, or gave up the lead to lose.
There is a lot at stake between these two going into Week 9 and what happens in this game will show what these teams are truly made of as the pressure goes up.
Here are the five keys to victory for the Buffalo Bills this week.
5.) Win the turnover battle
This should already be an easy thing to suggest, but the Bengals’ defense has only had one game where they did not force a turnover. In five of their games, they have had 2 or more takeaways on defense.
The unit plays great situational football and have helped the Bengals to a three-game winning streak. One thing to keep in mind is that the Bengals have also turned the ball over at least once in every game since Week 2.
The Bills’ offense has turned the ball over in six out of their eight games, including four games with 2 or more turnovers. However, the Buffalo defense has taken the ball away in all except two games this season, including four games where they had 2 or more takeaways.
This is the type of game that could come down to whoever wins the turnover battle. The Bills’ defense will have to play great situational football and attack the ball each drive.
4.) Protect Josh Allen at all costs
During the playoff game last year, it is hard to believe that Josh Allen was only sacked once for a loss of three yards. It seemed like every other passing play he was being pressured and forced out of the pocket. However, with these pressures it sometimes did turn into a forced run, as Allen was the leading rusher for 8 carries and 26 yards (also adding on a touchdown).
Through eight games this season, Allen has been sacked 12 times for a loss of 55 yards. The offensive line has been playing much better this season in protecting Allen. There have only been two games where Allen has been consistently pressured (Week 1 vs. Jets and Week 7 vs. Patriots).
The Bengals come into this game with 21 sacks (Trey Hendrickson with 8 himself), giving the Bills’ offensive line a big task at hand. If the offensive line that showed up for Allen in Weeks 2-4 performs against the Bengals, Allen should easily not be sacked. However, if the offensive line allows immediate pressure then the offense is going to do what they have done the last month and get off to a very slow start.
3.) Stop Joe Mixon and the run
Joe Mixon ran all over the Bills in their last meeting (20 carries for 105 yards and a score) in which he averaged just under 5 yards a carry. That was when the Bills’ defensive line was at more health than they are now. While the unit has cleaned up the run stop the last two games, they still have given up over 100 rushing yards on the ground in five of their eight games. Mixon is coming off his best game of the season last week with a 16 carry game for 87 yards and a touchdown, averaging just under 6 yards a carry.
Buffalo’s defense already has a major task at stopping the Bengals’ passing game, and when an offense has a terrific passing game to go with a dominant running back who can catch passes out of the backfield, it makes it difficult for a defense. Sean McDermott and the defense will have the not so pleasant task of having to find a way to limit Mixon, in addition to stopping Joe Burrow.
2.) Run the ball early and often
One positive factor about the Bills this season compared to prior seasons is the improvement of the run game. The lead back in James Cook has taken a step forward from his rookie season last year and has helped the Bills run-attack become a game that forces defenses to defend.
The Bills are averaging 113 yards on the ground and it is, for once, not all because of Josh Allen. The Bengals have a below average run defense through the first eight weeks, giving up over 100 rushing yards in 5 out of 7 games played (4 games of allowing 140+ rushing yards).
In Buffalo’s five wins on the season, they have rushed for over 100 yards in each of them. In the three losses, the Bills averaged 69 rushing yards. Not only does it keep the passing game from being forced, but it keeps Cincinnati’s offense off the field and can make them play from behind.
1.) Don’t let Joe Burrow get momentum
The Bengals’ offense has stepped up from their early season struggles and part of the reason why is because of the play of quarterback Joe Burrow. Halfway through the season, Burrow has thrown for 1,513 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions while completing 66% of his throws. His last four games, Burrow has completed over 65% of his throws, including completing 87.5% of his throws against a San Francisco defense that usually locks down opposing quarterbacks.
One thing that the Bills’ have to consistently do is get in the pocket to make Burrow uncomfortable. In the last four games, Burrow has been sacked 3 times each, and 19 times overall on the season. If the pocket is clean for Burrow and the receivers get even one extra step on the defenders, Burrow can build momentum throughout the ball game which puts more pressure on Allen and the Bills.