For the third time in the last four regular season games, the Buffalo Bills travel to Arrowhead for a date with the Kansas City Chiefs, who are coming off a primetime loss against the Green Bay Packers. Since 2020, the Bills have faced the Chiefs five times (two playoff games), with four of them taking place in Kansas City.
While the Chiefs have had a more successful season than the Bills, they have not been the same dynamic team that they once were. Even though they won the Super Bowl last season without star wideout Tyreek Hill, their losing offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has taken a little bit of a toll on them.
The Bills are 6-6 going into this matchup after a heartbreaker loss against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12. They are currently out of the playoff picture and face an uphill battle for the rest of the season.
The loud crowd in Arrowhead is arguably the loudest in in the NFL, but the Bills have shown to take that factor out in 2 out of their last 3 wins in Arrowhead.
Here are the five key matchups for the Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs.
5.) Buffalo Bills RBs vs. Chiefs’ run defense
In their last seven games, Kansas City is giving up 127 rushing yards per game, and have only had two games this season where they did not give up more than 100 rushing yards in a game. In that seven game stretch, the Chiefs have gone 4-3. In addition, they have given up more than 120 rushing yards in four games out of the seven. This should be eye opening for Joe Brady and the Bills’ offense.
In their last three games, the Bills have averaged 165 yards against the Broncos, Jets and the Eagles. The mixture of James Cook, Latavius Murray, and now Ty Johnson who has explosiveness like Cook and physicality of Murray, has been great for the run game. Even though the Chiefs’ defense has vastly improved from last year, the run attack is shaky and with the way the Bills have looked under Brady the last two games, this should be a field day for the Bills’ rushing attack.
4.) Buffalo Bills WRs vs. Chiefs DBs
The secondary for Kansas City has given up no more than 259 passing yards in a game this season. However, they have only 6 interceptions, with the leader being cornerback L’Jarius Snead with two. They will take on a Buffalo receiving core that has come alive their last two games with guys like Khalil Shakir and Gabe Davis. The Bills’ star receiver Stefon Diggs has not recorded a 100+ receiving yard game since Week 6 against the New York Giants.
If the history that has happened with the Bills and Chiefs continues when it comes to barnburners, this matchup will be a make or break one. It should also be noted that the Bills have a tight end who plays like a receiver in Dalton Kincaid, who easily be a primary target in this game. The Chiefs’ defense will need to gameplan for him the most as his emergence with Dawson Knox’s absence the last couple of games.
3.) Chris Jones vs. Bills interior offensive line
The offensive line for the Bills has been much improved this season since Sean McDermott took over the team in 2017. Josh Allen has only been sacked 15 times this season and has not faced a ton of pressure as the season has progressed. The Chiefs’ defense is coming into this game with 39 sacks, and star defensive lineman Chris Jones has 7.5 sacks himself. In the first five games of the season, Jones recorded a sack in each game and recorded two sacks against the Eagles.
Both against the pass and the rush, Jones will be a contributor that the interior part of the offensive line for the Bills will need to prepare for. Rookie guard O’Cyrus Torrence will be tested big time, along with left guard Connor McGovern. Jones is the type of player that can shift the momentum in favor of Kansas City, so the Bills will need to prevent him from giving the upper hand to the Chiefs.
2.) Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes
It is always electrifying when these two face off against each other. At one point, these two were the top quarterbacks in the NFL and they produced some of the best football when Buffalo and Kansas City went at it. They are familiar with each other and know what they both bring to the table. Even though Allen has won the regular season battle the last two times, Mahomes still finds a way to create his Mahomes magic. In three games against the Bills, he has completed 66% of his throws, along with throwing for 835 yards, 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.
On the other hand, Allen has completed just 60% of his throws against the Chiefs in the regular season, along with throwing for 766 yards. However, Allen has 8 touchdowns to just one interception. Allen tends to play up to his competition and despite the Chiefs having a “down year”, they are still a roadblock for the Bills who are looking to go on a run to make it into the playoff picture.
1.) Sean McDermott vs. Andy Reid
Even though McDermott has gotten the best of Reid in recent history, this season tells a different story between the two coaches. McDermott has been criticized when it comes to coaching decisions as well as sloppy defense in the final minutes of the fourth quarter in a majority of their losses.
He has shown that he can clean up a mess and provide that first punch, but is still looking for that second punch. In this league, offensive coaches have an advantage and that puts Reid as the coach to beat in this game.
This is not to say that McDermott can’t beat Reid again. However, McDermott has been on the wrong side of decision-making this season and that is something that he cannot do against Reid. With there being so much pressure on Buffalo, it all comes down to the coaching staff led by McDermott. If it comes down to the Chiefs having the ball last and needing a score to win, there is doubt on McDermott unless something changes.