It is going to be a cold game this Monday in Orchard Park between the Buffalo Bills and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bills have a challenge ahead of them as they welcome in a Steelers squad who are winners of their last three games behind quarterback Mason Rudolph. Both the Bills and the Steelers were granted a playoff spot after the Tennessee Titans defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 18, but the Bills earned themselves the number two seed after beating the Miami Dolphins last Sunday night.
Buffalo has won their last five games after going 6-6 right before their bye week and they have come alive at the right time. Head coaches Mike Tomlin and Sean McDermott, who were college teammates at William & Mary will have to strategize and be prepared for weather elements that could affect their game plan.
Here are three bold predictions for the Buffalo Bills heading into the Wild Card round.
3.) Buffalo’s defense shuts down the Steelers’ run attack
Since Week 7, the Steelers have rushed for over 100 yards 8 out of 12 games (6 games with over 150 rushing yards). Even with the transition at quarterback with Mason Rudolph, the Steelers are able to establish the run with Najee Harris. In his last three games, Harris is averaging over 100 yards on the ground and has scored 4 touchdowns. Now he will be looking to be the same factor in what is could be a very cold game in Buffalo.
The Bills’ defense has improved a lot with stopping the run after their bye week as compared to the beginning of the season. They have only allowed more than 100 rushing yards in a game twice since their bye week but will be tested against the Steelers in the elements. If the Bills can stop the run and force the Steelers to have to throw against a great situational defenese, with a quarterback who has never played in the playoffs, they will have a massive advantage throughout the game.
2.) Khalil Shakir leads the Bills in receiving yards
Last week against the Miami Dolphins, it wasn’t Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, or even Dalton Kincaid who was the reliable target for Josh Allen. It was wideout Khalil Shakir who on 6 targets, reeled in 6 catches for 105 yards that ultimately helped the Bills move the ball through the air.
Shakir has been more involved with the Bills’ offense since Joe Brady took over play-calling duties. Since Week 16 against the Los Angeles Chargers, he has brought in every targeted pass without a drop, making him a reliable receiver heading into the tournament.
There is no reason to believe that a guy like Diggs or Davis/Kincaid are going to be the difference maker through the air. However, if the Bills are winning without them taking over the game, it gives the Bills a massive advantage knowing that they have a guy like Shakir who Allen can rely on throughout the playoffs. Two out of their last three games, the Steelers have given up 280+ passing yards, giving the Bills’ passing game a high volume if they need to throw it, and it could mean a big day for Shakir.
1.) Bills win by double digit points, cover the spread
The Steelers are 10-7 heading into this game, and 4 of their losses have come by 10 points or more. The teams that they have lost by double digit points include the San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Indianapolis Colts. The 49ers and Texans are no surprises because of the mixture of overall roster talent, and great quarterback play by C.J. Stroud of the Texans. In Buffalo’s 11 wins on the year, they have 5 wins that were by 20+ points. The other 6 games were wins by no more than 7 points.
The Bills are a 10-point favorite against the Steelers and even though they have not been able to cover the spread in the second half of the season as much, they are still winning. When you add in home field advantage, the fact that Mason Rudolph is under center with no playoff experience, and the Bills do not need to worry about T.J. Watt, the Bills have a lot of factors in their favor.
The Bills find a way to take care of business without letting Pittsburgh build momentum and win by no less than 10 points.