Well, here we are again Bills Mafia, gearing up for this year’s Super Bowl saying it should be the Buffalo Bills representing the AFC. Outside of the Kansas City Chiefs who are seeking a three-peat, no other team has been as successful as the Bills over the last few years. The Bills have now lost four times to the Chiefs in the playoffs, three of which have come in heartbreaking fashion.
What is starting to look like the greatest dynasty the NFL has ever seen is ultimately the only roadblock that has stopped the Bills from having what would likely be a minimum of multiple Super Bowl appearances in the last few years.
The most heartbreaking loss is the most recent one that we’re just about two weeks removed from. It was the closest the Bills had come to defeating the Chiefs and it slipped through their fingers, literally. It was yet another game where the Bills’ infamous playoff defense got gashed, and Josh Allen played superhero just for a teammate to let him down in the biggest and most clutch moment. Despite the pain Bills Mafia has been feeling of yet another shortcoming, there is tons of optimism that comes with the loss.
Unlike years past, it is extremely clear the Bills’ future is bright. The media declaring the Bills window was shut, had to eat their words; as Josh Allen and Sean McDermott led the least talented Bills team in the Josh Allen era, to the AFC Championship. Despite entering the season with $75 million in dead cap, the 2nd most in the league entering the year, they went somewhere they weren’t supposed to.
Despite taking their own medicine this year to clean up the salary cap, they had a thirteen-win season, won a fifth-straight AFC East division title, and were four points shy from playing in the Super Bowl. Taking a look at the state of the Bills’ salary cap is the best place to begin your offseason Bills research, and we’ve got you covered with a deep dive.
The Buffalo Bills 2025 cap situation
As mentioned, the Bills came into last season paying the second most dead cap in the league. They had $75 million allocated to players not on their team anymore, which made up nearly 29% of their salary cap spending in 2024. Thankfully, thanks to great work by Bills general manager Brandon Beane for getting ahead of a plummeting cap situation early, that number is drastically dropping in 2025. The Bills as of now, are only on the hook for $5.4 million in dead cap which is ranked as 21st in the league. That is likely to go up a little depending on what veterans get cut before the new league year begins, but it will not hold the team back this year.
The NFL salary cap has not been officially set yet, but it is projected to be between $265 to $275 million for the 2025 season. A $10+ million increase from last season, thanks to massive television and streaming deals.
That would put the Bills in line to be about $10-to-$12 million over the cap. That means the Bills have to trim that amount to get cap compliant by the time the new league year rolls around on March 12, at 4:00 p.m. e.t. That number is a breath of fresh air compared to the Bills being over $50 million last off-season.
While it’s not fair to expect the Bills to go on a spending spree and add the top free agents, the Bills can clear money to make some moves. It is almost all but guaranteed the Bills will be an improved team next season. Here’s how they can clear some cap space.
How the Bills can clear cap space
Unlike last offseason, the Bills will not be going on a massive cutting spree. Instead, the cap-clearing moves seem set to come in restructures, pay cuts, and extensions. Brandon Beane is good at cap space gymnastics and it's coming very soon. First, let's take a look at who could potentially be cut.
The one that sticks out like a sore thumb is future Hall of Famer, Von Miller. If the Bills choose to release him they would save nearly $8.4 million against the cap, but create a dead cap charge of $15 million. If he’s designated as a post-June 1st cut, it would open up $17.4 million in space, and create only a dead charge of $6.3 million.
Obviously, the latter is much more beneficial but that would not help the Bills early on in the off-season. Miller plays very limited snaps and only sees the field for obvious pass-rushing downs, he has not returned to the Von Miller we saw in year one in Buffalo. He agreed to take a pay cut last year that massively helped the team and he could be willing to help again. However, he seems like an obvious choice to go.
Outside of that, there is very minimal savings elsewhere on cuts. For example, cutting DaQuan Jones would save close to $2 million but create a dead cap of $7.6 million. Again, it would be another big swing in savings with a post-June 1st cut, saving $5.5 million, but it also leaves you with a hole at the one-tech spot on the defensive line.
That is where the extensions and restructures are set to come in. The Bills can add void years to the longer-term contracts they have on the books and also convert salary to a signing bonus that will be paid upfront. Ed Oliver who just signed his extension in June of 2023, has a $20.6 million cap hit and is a prime candidate for this. A restructuring is estimated to save about $8.7 million.
Dion Dawkins, Matt Milano, and Dawson Knox restructures are the next top candidates. Those are estimated to open up around $9.8 million, $5.5 million, and $6.2 million. A Josh Allen restructure could save about $9.9 million.
However, due to the fact the Bills have already restructured Allen’s contract multiple times, an extension seems likely to clean it all up. Allen has a $43 million cap hit this upcoming season, however, he only has a base salary of $14 million due to the previous work on his deal.
Rumors have been swirling for a month or two now that the Bills want to get a new deal worked out with him for cap reasons, but also to give him a raise.
Saving cap with extensions
The Bills have multiple key young players in need of an extension as well, which could deter them from how much help they look for outside of the organization. What’s got them to a consistent winning team is drafting good and extending their key homegrown players, and it should continue.
While not everyone can get paid, James Cook, Greg Rousseau, Terrel Bernard, Khalil Shakir, and Christian Benford all need extensions. Benford seems set to command top-of-the-market money after his ascension to one of the most underrated and best corners in the league. He is currently projected to ink a contract in the four-year $92 million range.
Running back is tricky with second contracts, but Cook has been talked of glowingly by the Bills’ brass and is evolving into one of the best backs, and weapons, in the NFL. Cook is projected to land a four-year $36 million contract with an average annual salary of $9 million. That seems like a no-brainer move and the Bills should lock him up this offseason.
Rousseau might not be a premier number-one defensive end, but he is an elite run defender who’s gotten better as a pass rusher every season. He is projected to land a four-year deal in the $100 million range.
Terrel Bernard, the now captain of the Bills’ defense, has emerged as one of the better linebackers in the league and is sure to command a hefty deal as well. However, we’ve already seen the Bills move on from their emerging middle linebacker in the past.
One extension not a lot of people are talking about possibly happening, is center Connor McGovern. He made the switch from guard last season and proved he’s the team’s future at the position. McGovern is set to be a free agent next off-season, and anchoring down the middle of the Bills offensive line has been a priority in the past and should remain that way. A three-year deal makes sense and locks up Dawkins, Spencer Brown, and McGovern for the next few years, with rising guard O’Cyrus Torrence still having two years left on his rookie deal.
All of these extensions would come with unique ways for the Bills to clear up the cap with signing bonus chunks paid upfront and backloading the deals. So all in all, the Bills could clear up some nice chunks of money to make some moves.
However, they will likely seem content paying their own guys and adding smaller pieces to round the team out more. They also have a lot of draft capital, so they could swing a trade or two. It is worth noting as well that they have guys like Amari Cooper, Mack Hollins, Damar Hamlin, and Ty Johnson set to hit free agency that they likely to want to keep around for the right price.