In the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills surprised some by trading up a couple of picks to draft the top tight end in the class, Utah’s Dalton Kincaid.
Jumping ahead of the Dallas Cowboys, who likely would have drafted Kincaid, Buffalo saw a player they couldn’t resist. Kincaid is by far, and away, the best tight end in this draft. He is a talented receiver and will be utilized as a big-time weapon in a high-flying offense.
However, with a few other key needs like pass rusher, linebacker and wide receiver, Kincaid’s selection could also be a bit of a head-scratcher.
Hopefully, he is able to become everything the positive scouting reports say he can. But, there are a few reasons why Bills fans should be weary of this pick. Let’s dive in.
Reasons to worry about Buffalo Bills draft pick Dalton Kincaid: Limited football experience
On one hand, it is impressive that Kincaid has been so successful after having only played football since 2017. The fact that he worked his way to becoming a first-round pick is undoubtedly an achievement. But, the lack of experience can also come into play when you’re at the highest level.
There are other reasons we’ll get into, that kind of relate to a lack of experience and development, but this is definitely a reason to be concerned. He’ll have to develop correctly and might take a couple of years before he becomes a big-time contributor.
Let’s not forget, last year’s top tight end, Trey McBride, hardly did a thing as a rookie. Tight ends take a while to develop, at least on average. Kincaid might not become the star people are making him out to be; at least not for a while, and the Bills aren’t a team that can afford to wait around a while. Buffalo is ready to win a Super Bowl right now, so ideally, Kincaid grows into an NFL thoroughbred quickly.
Reasons to worry about Buffalo Bills draft pick Dalton Kincaid: Lack of physicality
Kincaid might be the best receiving tight end in the draft, this year, but it’s mostly because of his ability to run excellent routes. He also has some sticky hands, which of course will help in that area. But, aside from his raw receiving prowess, Kincaid lacks in one major area: strength.
Watching some Utah game film will tell you that Kincaid can get knocked off of his routes by more physical defenders. Look, he’s a talented kid, and this isn’t meant to completely downplay the pick. But, drafting a tight end in the first round, when you already have a great starting tight end… that’s a risk, and it must be assessed.
Kincaid is no where near as strong as he should be for an NFL tight end. And, if you’re going to play football in the AFC East, with an ascending New York Jets defense and an always-aggressive New England Patriots defensive coaching staff, you’re going to have to get stronger. That’s a fact.
If he’s open, he’ll catch the ball. And, that happens often. But, if he’s in the midst of a contested catch opportunity, Kincaid can come up short. The lack of physicality stands out, and that’s one thing he’ll have to improve greatly.
Reasons to worry about Buffalo Bills draft pick Dalton Kincaid: Not a run blocker
If you try and look for film of Kincaid run blocking, good luck. You aren’t going to find much. In fact, this is one of the top reasons for concern when looking at any of his scouting reports or draft profiles.
This goes along with not possessing the physicality necessary to be successful at the NFL level, as we mentioned previously. Kincaid is coming to an offense that already has a very good tight end in Dawson Knox, and being a first-round pick, Kincaid will force the Bills to use a lot more 12 personnel.
That typically means the Bills will be more likely to run the football, although of course both tight ends are pass-catching weapons. But, Buffalo finished in the top 10 of the league last year in rushing, overall, and with Kincaid being on the field quite a bit due to his draft stock, he is going to have to improve as a run blocker.
Josh Allen will depend on him for protection. He’ll depend on him to block on designed quarterback runs, too. This isn’t just about the running backs. Kincaid is coming to an offense that runs the football, period. He will have to learn to function as a blocker in this realm, and in a hurry.