These four picks could present great value for the Buffalo Bills in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft
The NFL Draft is almost here. Years of scouting, analysis, and discussion for the Buffalo Bills and the other teams in the NFL will collide across three nights from April 27-29 and shape the future of the franchises and young men who are drafted.
Even with the recent explosion of data and analytics which allow teams to evaluate players in ways that 20 years ago would seem like something out of a science fiction movie, every team will value these players differently – both in terms of how the project the player and how the player fits their particular team.
As a result of the varying valuations and differing team needs, every year there are players who drop farther than expected during the NFL draft and provide an opportunity for teams willing to take on risk to acquire top-end talent at excellent values.
This may be due to injury, performance struggles in college, a bad scheme fit, off the field issues, character concerns, combine test results, or any number of other factors that NFL teams analyze and re-analyze constantly throughout the pre-draft process.
Whatever the reason, if the players who fall in the draft rebound, the teams who were willing to take a chance reap the benefits. Consider for example how Stefon Diggs falling to the fifth round in the 2015 NFL Draft has altered the course of two franchises.
With the Buffalo Bills (at least at the time of this writing) slated to have the 27th pick in the NFL draft on Thursday night, they are in a prime position to acquire a player who not long ago would have been projected to go much higher in the draft.
The latest projections reveal four players who could fall to the Bills at 27 for different reasons. Each could return significant value at a position of need for Buffalo.
Lukas Van Ness – Edge, Iowa
Van Ness is a powerful edge rusher, who has occasionally lined up on the interior of the defensive line during his time at Iowa. This type of position versatility is something the Bills have valued under GM Brandon Beane and Head Coach Sean McDermott.
Van Ness is the type of high-upside player who could return significant value no matter where he is drafted. At one time, Van Ness was thought to be among the top ten players in this year’s draft.
ESPN still ranks Van Ness as the second overall defensive end in this class (after Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson), and the fifteenth overall prospect. However, due to concerns about consistency on his tape and his athletic testing at the combine, Van Ness is now falling in mocks to the late first round.
If Van Ness is still on the board around pick 20, Beane may consider trading up to get a truly elite prospect at a value. Beane has said that he is more likely to trade down out of the first round, however he himself admits that this is not his M.O. saying:
"“I’ll tell you, if I was in Vegas right now putting money down, I would say if we were going to do anything, it’d be more likely to go back then go up. But listen, you’re talking to a guy who gets antsy at times and goes up and gets guys so Vegas probably would still go against what I just suggested.“"
Additionally, this type of pre-draft rhetoric may just be smoke in order to not give away the Buffalo Bills draft plan. There is no reason to think with Beane’s history that if the right player falls he will not be opportunistic to trade up again this year.
Dalton Kincaid – Tight End, Utah
Kincaid is a really interesting prospect, and it is very hard to project where he will go in this draft. At one point recently, having the top rated tight end in the draft fall to the Buffalo Bills at pick 27 would have been a pipe dream.
However, as the draft approaches concerns about his college usage and injury history seem to be pushing his draft stock down to the point where like Van Ness, he may be a realistic target for Brandon Beane on Thursday night.
Dalton Kincaid played two seasons at San Diego before transferring to Utah in 2020. His two seasons in Utah were uneven – he caught just one pass in 2020, before scoring eight touchdowns in his senior season in 2021. There may be significantly more upside for Kincaid, as he was not even Utah’s primary tight end for most of his senior season.
Unfortunately, a significant back injury derailed his season, and concerns about his pass-blocking ability have him falling behind Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer, and sometimes Georgia’s Darnell Washington in mock drafts despite being ESPN’s top ranked tight end and fourteenth-rated player overall.
In the Buffalo Bills’ offense, Kincaid would be an excellent fit, and would certainly fit Beane’s desire to add a “playmaker”. As the Bills’ second tight end, they could scheme to limit his exposure on running downs as he grows as a blocker while featuring him and Dawson Knox in two tight end sets to add another dimension to their passing attack.
Like with Van Ness, if the draft progresses into the last third of the first round and Kincaid’s name has not been called, look for Beane to be aggressive to add another weapon to the Bills offense to support superstar QB Josh Allen.
Quentin Johnston – Wide Receiver, TCU
Early in the off-season, there seemed to be more concern about Jaxson Smith-Njigba’s injuries and the size (or lack thereof) of Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison. At that time, TCU’s Quentin Johnston was thought of as possibly the best option in a weak wide receiver class.
At 6’3” and 208 pounds with long arms and large hands, Johnston has all the measurables of a prototypical NFL wide receiver. His fall down the draft boards seems to be more related to Smith-Njigba, Flowers and Addison moving up rather than anything Johnston has done wrong.
ESPN currently ranks him as the fourth overall wide receiver, and 29th player overall, which makes him a very real possibility for the Bills to draft at 27, or even acquire after trading down out of the first round if that is what Beane chooses to do.
For a player who Matt Miller compares to Tee Higgins, a late Round 1 or early Round 2 selection could be a steal.
Johnston provides some extra value for the Bills, as his skill set is similar to Gabriel Davis, though Johnston does have better hands. With Davis currently entering the final year of his contract, Johnston could spend this year growing in the Buffalo Bills offense, similar to Khalil Shakir last season, and then provide the Bills with a younger and cheaper option to replace Davis if he leaves via free agency next off-season.
Bryan Bresee – Defensive Tackle, Clemson
Bryan Bresee is the type of player that Bills fans would rally around. His personal story transcends football and would instantly make him a fan favorite for a community that rallies around their players like none other in sports.
Once projected to be the top defensive tackle prospect in football, ESPN now ranks him number four behind Jalen Carter, Calijah Kancey and Keeanu Benton. However, there are reasons to believe that he will provide significant value to the team that acquires him.
The top overall recruit out of high school and the ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2020, Bresee saw his once-promising collegiate career derailed by injuries, illness and personal tragedy. Now fully recovered, he does not have the college tape that some of the top prospects do, and is no longer thought of as a top-10 NFL draft pick.
However, he has worked himself back into shape, posting an elite Relative Athletic Score, which is a testament to his determination and work ethic. With his health and personal issues in the past, Bresee could be about to live up to his immense potential and become a franchise-altering player in the NFL.
With Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Tim Settle and Jordan Phillips all entering the final year on their current contracts, Buffalo needs to draft a defensive tackle in this draft. For a team like the Bills with super bowl aspirations and likely drafting late in the draft for the next several years, the opportunity to add a player of Bresee’s caliber could be too much to pass up.