The Buffalo Bills are currently sitting with the 27th pick of the 2023 NFL Draft. There are tons of mock drafts out there, some have included the Bills moving up in the draft via a trade with another team and most of those predicted trades had them moving up to draft Texas running back, Bijan Robinson.
I’m not a fan of drafting a running back in the first round, let alone trading up in the first to draft a running back. But if the rumors are true, is it Robinson the Bills are targeting? Maybe it’s for one of the wide receivers, such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Jordan Addison, or maybe Zay Flowers. Flowers is someone that seems to be climbing draft boards again as we near draft day.
It’s a huge unknown for the Bills at this point what direction or position they might go with in the first round. One of the top linebackers has been mocked several times as of late to the Bills but I don’t believe any of them have a first-round grade, so it’s unlikely they would be targeting a linebacker.
I’ve written before about the offensive linemen in this draft, also recently did a seven-round mock draft for the Bills, in which I selected an offensive lineman with the Bills’ first-round pick. Are there any offensive linemen in this draft the Bills feel they would need to move up to select earlier than 27?
All that to say, I don’t believe it’s a good idea for the Bills to move up in this draft and I have a few reasons why I believe this to be the case. Let’s get into those reasons now.
Buffalo Bills have too many needs to move up
The Buffalo Bills have far too many needs to be moving up in the draft. This would almost certainly require giving up an extra pick, along with giving up the 27th pick.
The Bills only have six picks to begin with in this draft and will need everyone one of them to fill needs. I’m not saying there are glaring holes on this Bills roster but they need more depth on the offensive line, or even a possible starting caliber player or two on the line.
As of now, the Bills have no defensive tackles under contract past the upcoming 2023 season. It would be a good idea to pick one up in the draft, someone that can learn the ropes of the NFL behind the current vets on the team.
Another area of need is at safety. Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are both north of 30 and despite the free agent signings of Zayne Anderson and Taylor Rapp, if there is a solid rookie that falls to the Bills at some point in the draft, it would be good to pick one up to learn behind one of the best starting safety duos in the league.
NFL Draft is not loaded with top-end talent
Many draft experts and NFL scouts have stated repeatedly that there are only about 15 – 18 rookies in this year’s NFL Draft that are truly a first-round talent.
Many of the wide receivers and offensive linemen in this draft should be available around the 27th pick, which is due to the quarterback-needy teams ahead of them and the solid class of quarterbacks available. This will push many of the better prospects down to the Bills.
I would not be surprised if we see five quarterbacks go before the 20th pick, maybe even as many as six if there is a team willing to select Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker early in this draft.
Unless the Bills are targeting the aforementioned running back Robinson, I don’t see anyone else that might drop to the early 20s to warrant moving up but even for Robinson, I would not like the move. They don’t need a running back, this is not a run-first team, so unless they are planning to completely change their offensive scheme, it would not be worth it.
This brings me to my next and final reason why the Bills should not pull the trigger on a move up in this year’s NFL draft.
It would be too costly for the Buffalo Bills to move up in first round
The previous two reasons I provided as to why the Bills should not complete a trade to move up essentially roll into this final reason.
As I mentioned, the Bills have too many areas of need to address and only six draft picks to do it. A move up in this draft would require entirely too much draft capital to make it worthwhile.
Additionally, when we look at this year’s rookie class and we go back to the idea there are only 15 – 18 players truly worthy of a first-round grade, it would mean the Bills would have to give up a great deal to move in that 15 – 18 range. This move would likely cost them their first and second-round picks or some combination of later picks, so the Bills would lose a second at best or two picks later.
Is it worth it for the Bills to pull this off, and get through this draft with just four picks? I personally don’t believe that to be the case. There is simply no player in this draft that would have a big enough impact for this upcoming season.
The caveat to all this is how far up are they trying to move. Beane has moved up in the first round on more than one occasion, so doing it again would not be a shock, my hope is it’s not at the expense of too many additional picks.