The Buffalo Bills defense is in flux, with their biggest free agent signing in years recovering from a major knee injury, arguably their most important backfield player now a Chicago Bear, and their defensive coordinator taking a year off from football leaving defensive play-calling duties (at least for the time-being) to head coach Sean McDermott.
The Bills have options on their roster to replace Tremaine Edmunds, though to expect any available option to play to the level that Edmunds did last year is foolish. They brought back Jordan Poyer, and added Taylor Rapp to fortify their backfield. However, they still have significant questions on their defensive line.
With Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Tim Settle, and the newly re-signed Jordan Phillips, the Bills appear to be set at Defensive Tackle. However, they have a glaring hole at defensive end with Shaq Lawson a free agent, and Von Miller rehabbing from an ACL reconstruction.
Miller’s situation in particular should be a cause of concern for the Bills and their fans as we approach the 2023 NFL Draft. While the Bills knew that a big-ticket addition in free agency this offseason was unlikely given their own crop of free agents and their salary cap situation, the current state of their Defensive End position in particular is concerning.
For a team with Super Bowl aspirations to enter the season with questions surrounding the piece that was supposed to put them over the top, and to not address those concerns through free agency or trade puts the Bills in a potentially precarious situation as we look to next year.
With that in mind, let’s examine four specific areas of concern surrounding Von Miller and his injury:
Miller’s age and rehab timeline leave the beginning of the season in question
Miller injured his right Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) on Thanksgiving Day during the Bills win over the Detroit Lions. After initially suggesting that he might be able to play through the injury or rehab in order to return late in the season, with initial reports indicating that the injury was to his lateral meniscus and not his ACL, Miller underwent exploratory surgery which revealed the ACL tear, and turned into surgery to repair the ACL on December 6, 2022.
The Bills and Miller have expressed optimism that he will be ready for the start of the 2023 season, which would be just ten months following his surgery. While ACL rehabilitation typically takes an estimated six to eight months, the time for a player to return to full strength can vary significantly, and is impacted by a number of factors.
Bills fans are very familiar with the extended time it has taken Tre’Davious White and O’Dell Beckham Jr. to return to their previous levels of excellence following ACL reconstruction. To count on Miller, to be at full strength while playing one of the most demanding positions in all of professional sports, just ten months following surgery is certainly a risk.
Further complicating matters is that this is Miller’s second ACL reconstruction on his right knee. While this is a factor that could have led to some of the difficulty and confusion in diagnosing the injury and return timeline last November and December, it also could lengthen his current rehab timeline. Miller previously ruptured this ACL in December of 2013. Providing some hope to Bills fans is that he did return to play all 16 games for the Broncos in 2014.
Miller, now 34 years old is seeking to return to being an impact player for the Bills on a very similar timeline to his first rehab nine years ago. For the Bills to succeed in 2024 as currently constructed, they will need Miller to play at full strength in significantly more than 16 games.
Miller’s impact on the Bills defense cannot be overstated
Von Miller’s impact on the Bills defense cannot be overstated. Signed last offseason to a six-year $120 million free agent deal, Miller was well on his way to earning every dollar of that with eight sacks over his first eight games with the Bills.
Overall the Bills defense ranked atop the NFL in DVOA in 2022. Many other rankings had them at or near the top of team defensive rankings as well, and under Leslie Frazier they have consistently been an elite defense. However, losing Miller, a key piece clearly hurt, and despite the offense scoring more points down the stretch, the Bills struggled to put games away.
Their struggles were on full display throughout the playoffs. Even win over the Dophins was a struggle as third-string Miami quarterback Skylar Thompson nearly ended their season in the Wild Card round, before Joe Burrow and the Bengals beat the Bills in Buffalo. In both games, the defense struggled to create pressure on the quarterbacks and disrupt their offensive timing.
Especially in big games, the Bills inability to generate pressure and force mistakes has become a glaring weakness. Miller is the type of player who changes the dynamic of a defense and not only creates this pressure, but also draws coverage away from other players, opening up lanes for them and making the entire defense better.
If the Bills are going to make a deep run in the playoffs next season, they will need a fully healthy Von Miller, and should be focused on giving him both sufficient time to rehab his knee, and also sufficient rest throughout the season in order to keep him fresh for four extra playoff games. To do this, they will need depth that they do not currently have on the roster.
A Super Bowl caliber team needs more depth than the Bills currently have
Depth and the ability to replace players who are injured is a key part of building a championship caliber roster. No team in the NFL is going to get through a season without major injuries, so to enter the season with any unit on the roster already thin is a huge risk. Beyond Miller and Gregory Rousseau the Bills only have Boogie Basham and A.J. Epinesa on their roster.
A team with Super Bowl aspirations needs more depth than the Bills currently have, and the Bills should not count on Basham and Epinesa taking huge steps forward at this point in their careers and becoming impact players.
Unfortunately, there are only a few real options available for Buffalo, such as the Bills 2016 first-round pick Shaq Lawson who is currently a free agent. Prior to the 2022 season, the Bills brought Lawson back on a one-year deal, and it makes a lot of sense to do the same this off-season.
Despite some good moments in 2023, he profiles as a back-up and depth piece as he has never played up to his first-round selection in his years with Buffalo, Miami Houston and the New York Jets. As a backup and rotational piece who is familiar with the Bills coaches and defensive system, he makes a lot of sense to bring back.
Beyond Lawson, there are few options this late in free agency. This puts the Bills in the unenviable position of either needing to trade for a defensive end or rely on a rookie, which the Bills have been reluctant to do in recent years.
Lack of options and too many needs put Bills in a difficult position ahead of NFL draft
The Bills are in a tricky situation as they approach the 2023 NFL Draft. They have shown in recent off-seasons that they prefer to have their roster filled out so that they can draft the best player available and not have to rely on rookies to fill starting roles.
This provides stability, developmental time and added depth to their roster as young players develop and integrate into the NFL schemes throughout their first season. It also allows the players to adjust to the rigors of a longer and more demanding NFL schedule.
However, this season the Bills enter the draft with some glaring needs. They will almost certainly add a middle linebacker with an early selection despite the options currently on their roster. They should add a tight end, as they currently only have Dawson Knox and Quinton Morris currently on their roster after Tommy Sweeney followed Brian Daboll to the New York Giants. They will almost definitely draft a wide receiver and probably add an offensive lineman with a day two pick.
What the Bills, and every team, needs to avoid is being in a situation where they have to select a player from any one position at a given point in the draft. Drafting this way forces teams to select players above their value, and decreases the overall success of building teams through the draft. Without addressing one of their significant needs (DE, TE, O-line, WR, MLB) through a free agent or trade, they are putting themselves in a situation where they could either pigeon-hole themselves or rely on Miller returning 100% healthy for the entire season.
The Bills still have options and time to address needs through a variety of avenues. However, Von Miller’s rehab and its impact on the 2023 season is a situation to watch closely as we head closer to the draft.