There is no question that Josh Allen is the best quarterback that the Buffalo Bills have had since the days of Jim Kelly. Since Kelly retired after the 1996 season, the Bills have tried almost every avenue to address the position from the draft (J.P. Losman, Trent Edwards, EJ Manuel), trades (Drew Bledsoe), and free agency (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyle Orton) with varying levels of success.
After back-to-back seasons with over 4,000 passing yards, Josh Allen is entering this season fourth in franchise history in passing yards with 14,114 passing yards behind only Jack Kemp, Joe Ferguson, and Jim Kelly. The question now is when might he move past these three players to become the Buffalo Bills’ leader in passing yards?
Predicting when Josh Allen will pass the three quarterbacks ahead of him with more career passing yards
Jack Kemp
Career Passing Yards: 15,134
Jack Kemp joined the Buffalo Bills midway through the 1962 season and would spend the next seven seasons in Western New York before retiring after the 1969 season.
Excluding the 1968 season, which Kemp missed the entire year due to injury, he had over 2,200 passing yards in five of those six years which at that point in time was a lot for a football player. He would finish in the Top 10 in passing yards every year he was in Buffalo.
Entering this season, Josh Allen is only 1,020 passing yards behind Kemp and he should move past him fairly early in the year. In fact, if Allen keeps his per game average from the past two seasons of 271 passing yards per game, he would pass Kemp in Week 4 against the Baltimore Ravens.
Joe Ferguson
Career Passing Yards: 27,590
Once Josh Allen passes Jack Kemp it will be a few years before Allen passes Joe Ferguson. He was a third round pick by the Buffalo Bills in 1972 and was the starting quarterback for 12 years.
During that stretch, he had some impressive seasons like in 1977 when he led the league in passing yards with 2,803 while surprisingly also leading the league in interceptions that year with 24. In addition to that season, he would have two seasons with over 3,500 passing yards in 1979 and 1981.
For Josh Allen to pass Joe Ferguson he would almost need to double his current career passing yards. However, it is not as simple as just assuming he will need four seasons to do it because his first two years weren’t as successful as his last two, which likely is a better indication of future performance.
If he averages the 271 passing yards, his average the past two seasons, it will take him nearly 50 regular season games which is almost three full seasons. If Allen keeps this pace then he would move to second in franchise history likely near the end of the 2024 season.
Jim Kelly
Career Passing Yards: 35,467
After Joe Ferguson, Josh Allen will begin chasing Jim Kelly who is the best quarterback in franchise history. He would play 11 seasons with the Bills, earn five Pro Bowl nominations, help Buffalo to four straight Super Bowls, and averaged over 3,220 passing yards every season.
Amazingly, even with this average, he would never lead the league in passing yards but was also very consistent when considering he had only three seasons with fewer than 3,000 passing yards and never threw less than 2,700 passing yards in any one season.
It shouldn’t be a surprise that this will be the biggest challenge for Josh Allen as he currently is over 20,000 passing yards behind Kelly. If Allen keeps the per game average previously mentioned he would surpass Jim Kelly sometime during the 2026 season, which is right about in the middle of the contract extension he signed last year.
After the 2026 season, Allen would have two more years left on his current deal.
There is no question that Josh Allen benefits from playing in a time where the NFL is much more pass-friendly and the NFL’s current regular season game has at least one more game than the other quarterbacks with it being expanded to 17 games last season.
However, even with the advantages Josh Allen has it will still take him a number of years to pass Jim Kelly which just highlights how good Kelly was for this team during his time as their starting quarterback.