Buffalo Bills: Keys to victory against Chiefs in AFC Championship Game
Win the Third Down Battle
This has been a continuous component of the Bills’ keys to victory from week to week. The fact of the matter is a large portion of the Bills team’s success this year has to do with the offensive conversion rate on third down. After finishing the regular season in first place for 3rd down conversion rate, hovering around 50%, the Bills struggled a bit in the wild card round, going 2 of 9, and improved slightly last week, going 4 of 13.
In both rounds, the Bills couldn’t match their regular season success, but it’s trending in the right direction. After all, it should be harder for the Bills to match 50% in the playoffs as the level of competition is much higher.
Additionally, converting on third downs offensively will be extremely important for this week’s game plan specifically. The original blueprint for beating high powered offenses like the Chiefs is to keep the ball out of their possession. Without Zack Moss and a lack of dedication to the running game in this Brian Daboll called offense, it is unlikely the Bills will play keep away from the Chiefs in a conventional manner.
If the Bills can convert on third downs, they don’t need to run the ball with great efficiency to keep the ball away from the Chiefs. As long as the Bills offense scores when they have the ball, it doesn’t entirely matter just how much time elapsed during that scoring drive. At the very least, converting third downs without completing scoring drives will still contribute towards the Bills winning the field position battle.
Furthermore, the Chiefs have converted on about 49% of their third downs which puts them right up there with the Bills offense in terms of success on 3rd down. However, if the Bills offense can keep up their end of the bargain while the Bills defense stymies the Chiefs on 3rd downs, it should work into the ball control blueprint.
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Ultimately, if the Bills can successfully execute most or all three of these keys to victory in the AFC Championship game, Buffalo could find themselves as the AFC representative in the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1993 playoffs.