Assuming the Buffalo Bills don’t pull off the greatest smokescreen of all time, let’s review their history at drafting quarterbacks in the first round of the NFL draft.
If the Buffalo Bills follow through on the general expectation that they will take a quarterback in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft, it will be just the fourth time in franchise history they have done so.
Previous draft picks have resulted in highs and lows, but mostly disappointments. There are a variety of reasons for the mixed results, and even more opinions as to why a quarterback selected so high would become a bust.
Quarterback is arguably the most important position on a NFL football team. Those with franchise quarterbacks typically are perennial playoff contenders. While those without have much tougher obstacles to overcome in order to make the playoffs.
For quarterbacks, the factors that play into their success seems obvious. Have a strong offensive system to match their skill sets, good supporting casts, strong management and a defense that can do just enough to relieve some of the pressure.
The Bills appear to have the strong management and defense to support a franchise quarterback, but the offense is still to be determined. Regardless of changes along the offensive line, there are still plenty of skill players to aid a young quarterback as they develop in 2018.
To prepare for a fourth quarterback selection, it is important to appreciate the three predecessors who helped shape Bills draft history. Starting with the most successful quarterback the Bills have ever selected in the first round.
1983 Draft – Pick #14 Overall
160 games started, 101-59 record, 35,467 passing yards, 237 TDs, and 175 INTs
The 1983 draft was arguably the best first round in NFL history. It produced six Hall of Famers and six Quarterbacks in the first round alone.
The Buffalo Bills had two picks in the first round that year. Sound familiar? With their first pick at No. 12 overall they took tight end Tony Hunter.
With their second first-round pick at No. 14 they did select a quarterback from Miami, named Jim Kelly. Kelly would lead the Buffalo Bills to four consecutive Super Bowls, become a Hall of Famer and one become of the most impactful individuals within the Buffalo community.
Part of the reason for Jim Kelly’s success with the Bills is that they had the strong management under Bill Polian and Marv Levy, a strong defense anchored by Bruce Smith and good role players with Andre Reed and Thurman Thomas.
For that type of success and consistency, obviously winning helped. The Bills went to the playoffs in eight of Kelly’s 11 seasons. The consistency also was aided by there not being a different version of free agency than there is today. Players didn’t switch teams as often, and coaches had longer ropes to figure things out before being fired.
The question is, how smart were the Bills in making the selection of Jim Kelly? If you knew after the fact how great a quarterback he would become, you wouldn’t wait until pick No. 14 to make his selection. They were fortunate the Kansas Chiefs selected Todd Blackledge instead of Jim Kelly earlier in the draft. The New England Patriots also took a QB at pick No. 15, and the Bills never traded up or attempted to get Kelly earlier to prevent somebody jumping them in the draft.
The Bills were fortunate that Kelly fell to them, although they still made mistakes by letting him escape to the USFL for two seasons.
The Bills weren’t aggressive in 1983, and they took the best QB available at the time they selected. This is a theme that follows for the two less successful QBs selected in the first round. This is NOT what the Buffalo Bills are doing today.
2004 Draft – Overall Pick # 22
33 games started, 10-23 record, 6,211 passing yards, 33 TDs, and 34 INTs
The 2004 draft class, much like this years and the 1983 class, had multiple first-round caliber quarterbacks. These are names you have heard and still hear in the NFL today, such as Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger. Possibly all three will end up in the Hall of Fame.
The Buffalo Bills were in the market for a QB that year too, but it wasn’t an urgent need. They didn’t have the draft capital to move up from No. 3 to pick No. 1 or No. 2 to get either Manning or Rivers. Instead, they liked Ben Roethlisberger and decided to wait at No. 13 to see if he fell to them.
He ended up being selected at No. 11 to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bills took Lee Evans instead, and it was a great backup pick considering Evans’ career. However, the Bills wanted a QB that year and they traded back into the first round to select J.P Losman. He wasn’t their first choice, but he played the position of need.
Losman never became a franchise QB. The trade into the first round cost the Bills several picks in the future, and Lee Evans would cycle multiple QBs throughout his Bills career. Losman showed the flashes in Buffalo that he did while in college. Yet those flashes were fleeting, and in the end, he didn’t get enough wins to stay.
Losman was going to transition the Bills from Drew Bledsoe into their future franchise. Instead he would be inconsistent and beat out on the depth chart by “Captain Checkdown” Trent Edwards.
The moral of this story was, the Bills had made a pre-draft plan to find their next franchise QB. The Bills liked Ben Roethlisberger, and rather than make their trade to move up to make sure they got him, they waited. They still traded away two first-round picks for a QB they weren’t as high on.
Going into the 2013 NFL Draft there was once again a different coaching staff, and a desire to find the franchise QB.
2013 Draft – Overall Pick # 16
17 games started, 6-11 record, 3,502 passing yards, 19 TDs, and 15 INTs
In 2013 the Buffalo Bills only had one pick in the first round. While it was fairly high, this was deemed a weak year for QBs. The Bills would trade back into the first round to try to match value and draft position. Their selection was EJ Manuel out of Florida State, who featured an impressive collegiate win-loss record.
Outgoing GM Buddy Nix had one objective, which was to select the future franchise QB before he retired. The problem was, it one of the worst years in NFL history to pick a quarterback. There was a strong opinion that there wouldn’t be any quarterbacks selected in the first round.
More from BuffaLowDown
- Buffalo Bills were ready to trade back if they couldn’t get Dalton Kincaid
- Grading Buffalo Bills drafting Dalton Kincaid in 2023 NFL Draft
- How the Buffalo Bills can win Day 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft
- Buffalo Bills having conversations about trading for DeAndre Hopkins
- Buffalo Bills Draft Rumors: Bills linked to this shocking first round target
Nix determined EJ Manuel was the best quarterback in the 2013 class. The Bills were savvy and traded backwards to better match value with the selection.
This move was both smart and mildly puzzling. Smart that they didn’t reach. Puzzling, because IF this is your franchise QB, how do you let the opportunity to pick him pass?
Arguments can even be made that the Bills did in fact did pick the best QB of the 2013 draft. Yet, this class was so poor in quarterback talent, that it was still a poor decision.
Other options were Geno Smith, Mike Glennon and Ryan Nassib.
EJ Manuel started off decent, but was probably rushed into starting after Kevin Kolb tripped walking onto the practice field. Like Losman, inconsistency early lead to losses, which left Manuel on the outside looking in once Rex Ryan and Tyrod Taylor arrived.
The best feature Manuel would end up possessing as a Bill would be a strong hard count that led to several offsides.
Heading into this draft, the Bills are once again appearing to make the decision to draft a QB no matter what. This draft class hopefully will be as deep as the 1983 class, but that’s unlikely.
The obvious lesson from the past is to not draft a quarterback with initials for a first name. The other lesson is that waiting for “your” guy typically doesn’t work. There are smart people in the room who know when to reach and when not to during the draft. Yet this team has been so poor at QB, they can’t wait anymore.
There is a zero percent chance the Bills scouting department, coaches and front office like multiple QBs equally. The definition of insanity is to try the same thing multiple times and expect different results. Selecting your third or fourth choice for a franchise just because he’s a quarterback won’t work, regardless of draft number.
To this writer, it doesn’t matter if they trade all the way up to select a QB that nobody is talking about. They have conviction in somebody, and that should be enough. The motto is to “Trust the Process,” and I do trust their evaluations based on past results thus far.
Don’t take Baker Mayfield just because he’s there at No. 12 and you need a QB. Take whomever it is because that’s the franchise from the start you identified. If the Bills stay at No. 12 and still select a QB, there should be gasps and cheers heard around all of Western New York originating from the Bills draft room on every pick before.
Next: Rookie quarterbacks that would fit best in Buffalo
If there isn’t, then they took a QB just to take one. And just like in previous two instances where that happened, the results may not be promising.