The draft is one month away and every Buffalo Bills fan is focused on the quarterback position. I’ll provide some analysis and project where they will land.
You can’t watch this year’s draft coverage without hearing about these guys. Many Buffalo Bills fans already know, this quarterback class offers NFL teams a wide variety of choices.
A team could look to find a polished prospect at the top of the first round (Darnold, Rosen).
They could opt to go for a talented quarterback that may be considered to have a few imperfections (Mayfield, Jackson, Allen).
Or, the team could roll the dice on a guy in the later rounds and hope to get some value.
The mad dash to the top of the first round has shined an even bigger spotlight on the prospects. The Browns, Giants and Jets are currently kicking off the draft. Each team needs a new signal-caller, which makes the possibility of three quarterbacks going 1-2-3 entirely realistic.
This class is going to be one the most intriguing groups in quite some time. With the potential of 6-7 guys going in the first two rounds, there is a wealth of options that could end up as busts.
The quarterbacks have completed the combine and are currently working through their pro days. Once team meetings begin, potential fits will start to form. Each team’s quarterback rankings will be different since they are based on team-oriented assessments (scheme fit, age, culture fit, physical tools).
My rankings are based on 100 percent film study. Looking through hours of game film, I feel I have a firm grasp on this historic class. Let’s see who is number one with a month to go…
1) Josh Rosen, UCLA
6-foot-4, 215 pounds
Analysis: Josh Rosen is an intelligent quarterback that isn’t afraid of the spotlight. While at UCLA, he spoke his mind on controversial topics and continued to play at a high-level. He has not been shy with the media and continues to talk whenever there is a microphone present.
When it comes to naturally talented throwers of the football, it doesn’t get much better than Rosen. His release is quick and smooth while his footwork is arguably the best in the 2018 class.
My favorite thing about Rosen’s game is his ability to read coverages and see blitzes. This is a rare trait for a prospect to have and usually takes years of learning in the NFL to grasp. He is the most pro-ready prospect in the class due to his accuracy and familiarity with a pro-style offense.
Rosen is easily the purest passer in the class. He has the potential to be a Pro-Bowl quarterback early and often.
Pro Comparison: Matt Ryan
Projected landing spot: Buffalo Bills
This would be the ideal situation for a player like Rosen. He is not afraid of the spotlight and always plays well in big situations. The Bills are a quarterback away from taking down the Patriots for a division crown and Rosen may be the guy to get it done.
2) Sam Darnold, USC
6-foot-4, 220 pounds
Analysis: He’s got a strong arm and has no problem anticipating throws. When a play breaks down, he can move out of the pocket and extend it with his mobility. Even though he is only considered a sophomore, he played in many big games while leading the Trojans, so the pressures of being an NFL quarterback may not wear on him as much as it may on others.
The negatives include the fact his throwing motion is elongated, and that he has struggled reading coverages. I believe both of those things can be fixed quickly with proper coaching. Fixing his mechanics may be the reason he opted out of throwing at the combine, but that is just speculation.
Overall, I believe will be a guy that takes chances in crunch time. He will take some losses but will ultimately win a ton of games. His ability to lead will help with the transition to the NFL.
Pro Comparison: Tony Romo
Projected landing spot: Cleveland Browns
Darnold will have to deal with the quarterback purgatory known as Cleveland. The addition of Tyrod Taylor makes the quarterback room a bit crowded for the rookie quarterback. Sitting early could help him develop faster, although I believe he could be successful from day one.
3) Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
6-foot-1, 220 pounds
Analysis: Mayfield is my favorite QB prospect in 2018. He plays the game with in a way that a team can rally around. You saw that this year with Oklahoma making it to the College Football Playoff.
The Heisman Trophy winner was a stat monster this year. Most of the success can be directed to the fast-pace system ran by Oklahoma, but Mayfield deserves some credit. His consistent accuracy at all levels will help him secure his place as a starter in the NFL once he is drafted.
His arm talent is clear. He has a quick release and his arm strength allows him to unload deep passes for fast receivers.
The negatives on this kid are ugly. As a quarterback or potential face of the franchise, you cannot have the problems off-the-field that he had in college. Character issues will take him off the board for many teams and he must refrain from allowing those actions to reappear while in the league.
The guy wins games and should be taken within the first 10 picks.
Pro Comparison: Better Jeff Garcia
Projected landing spot: Miami Dolphins
Their offseason decisions show that the team is moving to a fast-paced spread scheme. Mayfield would thrive early due to his experience in Oklahoma. As a Bills fan, this is something to root against. If surrounded by weapons, he could terrorize the AFC for years.
4) Lamar Jackson, Louisville
6-foot-3, 205 pounds
Analysis: Sorry Bill Polian… This guy is not a receiver.
He was a human highlight reel while at Louisville on his way to the Heisman Trophy during the 2016 season. His legs usually get most of the attention because his runs are electric. He used them to escape defenders with ease and pick up chunks of yardage when defenses didn’t contain him properly.
He also has the ability to make big time throws when the pocket is clean and has the velocity to succeed in windy conditions.
He is skinny but some time in a NFL weight room will help him fill out his frame. His accuracy problems should be attributed to his lack of footwork in the pocket. If he can be drafted by a staff with a talented offensive coordinator, he could really benefit from hands-on coaching.
I think he is being vastly underrated due to his dependence on his running ability. If he gets time to develop, he should have a major impact with his future team.
Pro Comparison: Michael Vick
Projected landing spot: Arizona Cardinals
Arizona needs to do something with their offense to take pressure off David Johnson. Lamar Jackson will help the Cardinals install a fast-paced offense that will lessen the impact of losing Larry Fitzgerald in the future. Wherever Jackson lands, touchdowns (not receiving!) and excitement will be sure to follow.
5) Josh Allen, Wyoming
6-foot-5, 230 pounds
Analysis: He is every NFL owner’s dream when it comes to size and arm strength. His big frame suggests he can see the field clearly and his arm allows him to make every throw. He also has a great ability to escape defenders and can tuck and run for big gains. His physical tools can’t be disputed.
He was held back at Wyoming due to the lack of elite prospects surrounding him on offense. This led to a low 56.3 percent completion rate.
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I’m much lower on Allen than most evaluators because I have seen this story before.
There have been other college QBs that enter the NFL with a low completion percentage but are drafted early because they have the size and arm strength that teams dream of (Jake Locker, Kyle Boller, Patrick Ramsey).
Allen also has a problem with his decision-making. I believe he tries to force the ball into coverage more than he needs to. This happens often from guys with big arms (I call it Brett Favre syndrome).
Overall,I still don’t think he should be considered a first-round pick, or even a top 15 guy. He needs a lot of work and can potentially succeed with time behind a veteran quarterback.
Pro Comparison: Kyle Boller
Projected landing spot: New York Jets
Allen needs to be treated as a project. The Jets traded up to grab the future face of the franchise, and I think it’ll be Allen. They brought back Josh McCown and took a flyer on Teddy Bridgewater, so he will likely sit throughout the season.
6) Luke Falk, Washington State (6-foot-3, 215 pounds)
Pro Comparison: Lesser Kirk Cousins
Projected landing spot: New England Patriots
Falk will be selected somewhere in the 2nd-3rd round range. The Patriots have a track record of selecting a project quarterback in that range, so Falk makes sense for New England.
7) Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State (6-foot-4, 230 pounds)
Pro Comparison: Christian Ponder
Projected landing spot: Denver Broncos
If the Broncos opt to wait on a quarterback, Rudolph will be a likely selection. Sitting behind Keenum will help him adjust to a pro-style system.
8) Kyle Lauletta, Richmond (6-foot-3, 215 pounds)
Pro Comparison: Lesser Alex Smith
Projected landing spot: New Orleans Saints
The Saints have yet to grab their successor to Drew Brees. Lauletta is a mid-round prospect with a bright future. New Orleans has enough depth to burn a mid-round pick on a young quarterback.
9) Mike White, Western Kentucky (6-foot-4, 220 pounds)
Pro Comparison: Drew Stanton
Projected landing spot: Pittsburgh Steelers
White is one of the smartest quarterbacks in the class. He will soak up all the experience of Big Ben and become a better quarterback than Landry Jones turned out to be.
10) Logan Woodside, Toledo (6-foot-1, 215 pounds)
Pro Comparison: Colt McCoy
Projected landing spot: Los Angeles Chargers
Woodside will be taken in day three of the draft. His size will be an issue for some teams, but he could be a solid option for the Chargers late in the draft.
Do you agree with the rankings? Is a prospect too high? Is a prospect too low?