Buffalo Bills: How the team can still get to the top of the draft

With the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts swapping picks in the first round of next month’s draft, the Buffalo Bills have now been put in a tough place to trade up. However, the Bills have the ammo and relationships to still get into the top five.

A wrench was thrown into the Buffalo Bills’ plans last weekend when it comes to the 2018 NFL Draft.

The Jets sent the No. 6 overall pick and three second-round picks to the Colts for No. 3 overall and will most likely draft a quarterback.

After the Bills traded up from No. 21 in the draft to No. 12 in the Cordy Glenn trade, it seemed inevitable that Buffalo would use the draft capital they acquired to move up into the top five to select their next franchise quarterback, and the Colts were the team to partner with.

Instead, it was the Jets who partnered with the Colts to move into the top three and the Bills are left potentially missing out on their franchise quarterback.

Despite having a very good offseason and making trades over the last year to acquire the aforementioned draft capital (Watkins, Taylor, Glenn, Darby trades for example), the pressure is now squarely on the shoulders of general manager Brandon Beane.

It appears his plan all along has been to move all the way up to the top of the draft to get a quarterback, but now he will have to work even harder to get to the top and make sure they get the guy the team wants.

It will certainly be a difficult task to move all the way up from No. 12, but there are options available for the team. With previous and current relationships, Beane can swing deals with the team’s surplus of draft capital.

There are several teams and scenarios in which the team can explore, so let’s take a look at the draft capital, how the top 10 could fall, and potential trade partners/packages.

Draft Capital

Before getting into the possible trade partners, we need to take a look at what the Bills have at their disposal.

Buffalo currently possess the following picks in the upcoming 2018 NFL Draft next month:

No. 12 and 22 (First Round) / No. 53 and 56 (Second Round) / No. 65 and 96 (Third Round) / No. 121 (Fourth Round) / No. 166 (Fifth Round) / No. 187 (Sixth Round)

Brandon Beane has done an excellent job in acquiring these picks through trades and shedding assets that are no longer viewed as key members of the team. With Sammy Watkins signing with Kansas City, it appears that it was smart to trade him due to his desire to sign elsewhere.

Getting a third and Jordan Matthews for Ronald Darby was a positive trade for the team and recouping a third in the Tyrod Taylor trade made up for the third the team spent on acquiring Kelvin Benjamin. To top off the series of trades this offseason, Beane traded Cordy Glenn and the No. 21 pick for the No. 12 pick, positioning the team to make another move to the top.

With all of these moves, it has been clear that Beane and company have been loading up to get to something. All signs point to quarterback, especially after Tyrod’s trade.

Buffalo should be the most powerful team in the NFL Draft in terms of being able to move around. Six picks in the top 100 means they have flexibility and the resources that teams covet. With an extra pick in each of the first three rounds, they can move picks and still have a normal draft.

Fellow BuffaLowDown contributor Justin Baumann and I have done a mock draft 1.0 and mock draft 2.0 and are currently working on mock draft 3.0. Justin and I alternate picks, with him taking odds and I take evens. In this scenario, I am predicting my top 10 without any additional trades.

1. Cleveland Browns – Sam Darnold/QB/USC

• It is time for the Browns to finally take their franchise quarterback. Darnold is clean off the field and other than turnovers and an elongated throwing motion; he is clean on the field too. Some believe he has the best long-term potential, and I think the Browns believe that too.

1. New York Giants – Saquon Barkley/RB/Penn State

• With the Giants seemingly being in “win-now” mode, they will elect to take the best talent in the draft class. I don’t think taking a running back at two overall is the best idea, but I do think the Giants want to add to a team that can win right now and Barkley can help bring the offense back to what it was. Adding a prolific talent like Barkley to Odell Beckham Jr., Brandon Marshall, Evan Engram, and Sterling Shepard should be enough to make the Giants offense competitive again.

1. New York Jets – Josh Allen/QB/Wyoming

• My personal opinion is that the Jets want Josh Allen. Josh Rosen seems to be the most NFL-ready quarterback, so why would the Jets sign Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater both to one-year deals if they want to take a pro-ready quarterback? I believe Allen’s potential has captivated the Jets and he is their guy.

1. Cleveland Browns – Bradley Chubb/DE/NC State

• I have seen this in several places, and the more I think about it, the more it makes sense. The offense seems to be taken care of with their offseason additions, and adding Sam Darnold finally addresses the QB need. Pass rushing is a position that you can never have enough of. Pairing Chubb with Myles Garrett would create a devastating defensive front for the Browns that would help shut down opposing quarterbacks.

1. Denver Broncos – Josh Rosen/QB/UCLA

• This is a tough call between Rosen and Baker Mayfield, but I give Rosen the edge. He is my favorite quarterback in the class (Baker is right on his heels) and the most pro-ready. John Elway desperately needs to fix his QB position and Rosen can help a team that is ready to win now.

1. Indianapolis Colts – Quenton Nelson/OG/Notre Dame

• Nelson is a monster and can step in and play right now. Getting Andrew Luck, or whoever the quarterback is next season is, help is priority number one. Adding Nelson could be adding a Pro-Bowler and All-Pro for years to come and an anchor along that offensive line.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Derwin James/DB/Florida State

• James is similar to fellow former Florida State DB Jalen Ramsey in terms of size and playmaking ability. However James is a better fit at safety, but he is extremely talented back there. The Bucs need help on the back-end and James could be that immediate help.

1. Chicago Bears – Tremaine Edwards/LB/Virginia Tech

• Edwards is a fast riser in the draft. He has size, speed, and playmaking ability. The offensive side of the ball has been addressed in free agency for the Bears, now focusing on the defense and building talent there can help the team become winners again.

1. San Francisco 49ers – Minkah Fitzpatrick/DB/Alabama

• Eric Reid isn’t expected to resign in San Fran and they need help in the secondary. They added Richard Sherman and have three first-round picks on the defensive line, so adding Fitzpatrick who is an elite talent in this draft, will help the 49ers become stronger on the defensive side of the ball.

1. Oakland Raiders – Roquan Smith/LB/Georgia

• What a natural fit this would be. Smith is arguably the best linebacker in this class and the Raiders are in desperate need of playmakers on that side of the ball. Smith could step in right away and be the heart of that linebacking group.

With our assets in a line and projections for the top 10 of the draft, we can now take a look at trade partners, trade packages, and who the Bills could take.

Indianapolis Colts

Even though the Colts have already traded back and they have put the Bills in a difficult position, they could be a trade target for Buffalo.

Indianapolis has a very weak roster with plenty of holes. By moving back from No. 3 to No. 6 in the deal with the Jets, the Colts acquired two additional second-round picks this season and another next season. If they are looking to fill even more holes, they could be willing to drop down again to acquire picks.

I can’t see moving up to the sixth pick costing the Bills as much as it would have before. With the Colts pick no longer being top five, the price should be reduced, especially with the Bills now holding 12 and 22 rather than 21 and 22.

With the mini-mock I laid out in the previous slide, no teams are taking a quarterback after the Broncos at No. 5, but between then and the Bills at No. 12, a team could easily jump up and take a quarterback or the Miami Dolphins could elect to take one at No. 11. Waiting at No. 12 for their guy won’t work.

The Bills can offer some of their assets without completely depleting their draft capital this season. They are jumping six picks but will have to not sell the Colts short to make sure they can get up there ahead of another team.

Getting to the Colts seems reasonable if they can’t get inside the top five. They can have their draft still and not touch next year’s picks. However, this could be another piece for a bigger deal.

The Trade: Indianapolis receives No. 12, No. 56, No. 65 / Buffalo receives No. 6 and No. 140

The Pick: Baker Mayfield/QB/Oklahoma

Baker Mayfield is my second favorite quarterback in this class. I love his attitude and his playmaking ability. Missing out on Darnold, Allen, and Rosen, Mayfield becomes the guy and that could be a big get for the Bills. Brian Daboll can fit an offense around Mayfield’s skillset.

What to like about Mayfield is his accuracy and leadership. He can put the ball where it needs to be no matter his platform and he can get it there, with the ability to make any throw. I think he can certainly be the franchise quarterback the team needs and his personality fits the city like a glove. If the Bills get to No. 6 and stay there, Baker Mayfield would be an excellent fit for the team and city.

Cleveland Browns

It benefits Buffalo that Cleveland has two first-round picks in the top four. At No. 1 overall, the Browns can go get their franchise quarterback, who I believe will be Sam Darnold. At No. 4 they can do one of two things – draft the best player available, or trade back and acquire more assets to fill a roster in need of improvement.

The Browns can sell this pick to the highest bidder because there will be a quarterback available and with Cleveland selecting one at No. 1, they can hold a king’s ransom. Teams like Miami and Arizona may be looking to jump the Bills and Broncos to get their guy, but they can’t match what Buffalo does in terms of picks.

Buffalo should be looking to get as close as they can to No. 1 to ensure they don’t miss out on a guy. If the Giants aren’t willing to deal, this is the next best spot they need to go to.

Defensive end Bradley Chubb and if he is available, Saquon Barkley, would be enticing options here to help make the Browns even more dangerous on both sides of the ball, but they can continue to stockpile picks and add more talent to a roster desperate for it.

The Bills and Browns GM John Dorsey already have a positive relationship as the two teams made a trade a few weeks ago involving Tyrod Taylor and the No. 65 pick. That relationship may certainly help in negotiations for the Bills moving up.

The Trade: Cleveland receives No. 12, No. 22, No. 65, 2019 third / Buffalo receives No. 4 and No. 175

The Pick: Josh Rosen/QB/UCLA

If you have read some of my previous work, you know that I enamored with Josh Rosen. He has all the tools to be a franchise quarterback and even though his personality is considered off-putting to some, I find him to fascinating.

I truly believe that he is number one on the Bills’ board and he could be the franchise guy without a doubt. What he can bring to the team is something the team hasn’t had for years.

There is no guarantee that he will be there at No. 4 as the Giants may end up taking him or the Jets may love him as well and take him. If that is the case, I would still move up here and take Baker Mayfield.

New York Giants

If you think a guy can be your franchise quarterback for the next 15 years, you do whatever you can to go get him.

I have been all aboard this train for quite some time now, especially with this crop of quarterback talent. If you have ready any of my previous articles, you know I adore Josh Rosen. I think he is the best quarterback in this class and while his personality can rub some people the wrong way, I find it so engaging and refreshing. I want and think the Bills will draft him.

Getting up to No. 2 overall will cost the Bills everything they have been saving up, but why else would you acquire all of that capital to not move up? I get that you would be getting four to five impact players and potential starters to fill holes, but tell me how the Browns did with three first-round picks last season. That’s right, they didn’t win a game and didn’t take a quarterback with any of those picks.

The Bills have two options in getting to the Giants, assuming they are willing to listen to offers to move out.

More from BuffaLowDown

• Buffalo Bills were ready to trade back if they couldn’t get Dalton Kincaid
• Grading Buffalo Bills drafting Dalton Kincaid in 2023 NFL Draft
• How the Buffalo Bills can win Day 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft
• Buffalo Bills having conversations about trading for DeAndre Hopkins
• Buffalo Bills Draft Rumors: Bills linked to this shocking first round target

One is to give the Giants whatever they want and get them to move back. It would be enticing for New York to move back because in getting all of the picks they will have, they can get young impact talent that will help the team win now.

That talent is also cost controlled for years to help save on the cap. Those players can also help the team rebuild on the fly and build a young core.

Two is to trade to make another trade. This plan was set in motion when the team acquired No. 12 from the Bengals, signaling the team was making a deal to make a deal.

I doubt any of the teams in the top five were willing to drop all the way back to 21 and 22, so meeting a team with a top pick half way at 12 makes it easier to move back.

The Eagles did this a few years ago, trading from No. 13 to No. 8 to No. 2 to eventually select Carson Wentz. This sounds like a familiar scenario, but the Bills have much more ammo to make this move.

Another factor is the relationship that Brandon Beane and new Giants GM Dave Gettleman have. Beane served under Gettleman in Carolina and knows how Gettleman operates and what he looks for. Their positive relationship doesn’t mean that Gettleman won’t ask the farm for No. 2, but it could mean that Buffalo would get the last call before any trade offers are accepted.

The Trade: Option one – New York receives No. 12, No. 22, No. 56, No. 65, 2019 first / Buffalo receives No. 2 and No. 139

Option two – New York receives No. 6, No. 22, 2019 second / Buffalo receives No. 2 and No. 102

Option three – New York receives No. 4, No. 53, 2019 second / Buffalo receives No. 2 and 2019 fifth

The Pick: Josh Rosen/QB/UCLA

As much as this may cost, this is the best option.

Getting to No. 2 should be the goal. It allows you to control your own destiny and get the quarterback you want. As I stated before, I think Rosen is the guy for Buffalo. If they know he is their guy, they need to do whatever they can to get the Giants to move out from No. 2.

Using the trades made previously, the team can help shorten the gap to make it more enticing for the Giants to move back. I can imagine quarterbacks going one, two, and three in the draft if the Bills make it to No. 2. With the Giants moving back to No. 4 or No. 6 they can get Barkley or Nelson at either spot and get their impact player that they would have taken at No. 2.

Rosen can make every throw, run every offense, and be the face of a franchise because he isn’t scared to be. Every interview from former teammates I hear tells me he is a not what the media and NFL front offices say he is and he can bring a lot to the team and the community.

Next: Potential draft haul if Bills opt to keep picks

The long-term goal has been to get a franchise quarterback. Beane has done a fantastic job of moving pieces and follow the plan that they have had since last season’s draft in selecting their guy. Now it is time for him to finish the job.