Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Three Keys to the Game

The Buffalo Bills’ wild-card matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars kicks off at 1:05 p.m. in Jacksonville, Fla.

A Buffalo Bills postseason game.

Let that sink in folks.

In fact, this is the first time we’ve ever seen a Three Keys on BuffaLowDown.

Period.

The Bills face an uphill battle Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

They’re massive road underdogs and face one of the league’s top defenses. Not to mention, LeSean McCoy, Buffalo’s top offensive weapon, is listed as questionable with an ankle injury (although he is expected to play).

"“Being an underdog’s awesome in the playoffs,” Micah Hyde said, via BNBlitz.com. “I love being the underdog in the playoffs, because we can go on the road and try to get the upset. It’s just a great feeling walking out of there with a win.”"

However, the Bills have a 41 percent chance to make the divisional round, according to FiveThirtyEight.

You know the drill, each week during the regular season this column will provide the three ways the Bills can secure a victory. So, without further ado, here are the Three Keys to the Game for the matchup against the Jaguars, which kicks off 4:25 p.m. Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium on CBS.

Win The Line Of Scrimmage

The Jaguars’ best and most-worrisome advantage over the Bills is their run game vs. Buffalo’s run defense.

Jacksonville leads the league in rushing (141.4 yards per game) while Buffalo ranks 29th defending the run (124.6 yards per game).

However, there is a slight catch here.

Jacksonville has rushed a league-high 527 times this season – 26 more attempts than any other team – while Buffalo has been rushed on 466 times, which ranks in a tie for 26th.

This skews both teams to a degree. Jacksonville’s yards per attempt, while still good, comes in ninth with 4.3. Buffalo still ranks 26th at 4.3 yards per carry.

According to Pro Football Focus, the matchup between Leonard Fournette and Kyle Williams could come in play heavily in the outcome.

"“The Jaguars have been trying to establish an imposing ground game, which many would consider essential come playoff time. Fournette’s physical running style translated well in his rookie season, as despite missing three games, his 35 missed tackles forced when running the ball ranked tenth among running backs last year. Extremely difficult to bring down in space, Fournette hasn’t had much room to operate of late. In the past two games, 73 of his 117 yards have come after initial contact. Williams, who has played 8,000 plus snaps in his 12 year career, will be playing in his first playoff game this Sunday. One of the league’s premier interior defenders in his prime, his grade of 80.0 against the run was still tops among Bills interior defenders. Williams and Fournette are in opposite stages of their careers, but their matchup could be a huge determining factor in who wins this game.”"

In fact, Williams and the rest of the Buffalo defense line will have favorable matchups against the Jacksonville offensive line.

While both Jaguars center Brandon Linder and right tackle Jermey Parnell have earned season-long grades from PFF of 76.7 or higher, the remaining offensive lineman sit between 38.9 and 52.0.

Both Williams and Jerry Hughes have favorable matchups against the left side of Jacksonville’s line. Left tackle Cam Robinson has earned that 38.9 this season, while right tackle Patrick Omameh has the 52.0.

Buffalo will also need a strong play from its linebacking core, especially Preston Brown, who leads the league in tackles.

The Bills have “contacted the opposing running back in the backfield on 34.3 percent of their run defense snaps this year, which was the third-best rate among defenses,” according to PFF. They must wrap up when they have the opportunity to secure a tackle for a loss.

This game will he won at the line of scrimmage. Buffalo needs to come out on top.

Win The Turnover Battle

Buffalo finished the regular season as one of the league’s best defenses when it came to taking the ball away.

The Bills’ 25 takeaways ranked in a tie for ninth while their 18 interceptions were good for sixth.

Buffalo Bills

Taking into account the Bills’ middle-of-the-pack points total – 22nd with 302 – the live and die by the turnover. Buffalo is 8-2 when winning the turnover battle this season.

While Blake Bortles has thrown a career-low 13 interceptions this season, he still was fifth highest.

Not to mention, after some stellar play, Bortles has struggled mightily of late, and even without facing a pass rush. He has had a passer rating of 76.9 when the pocket has been kept clean the last two weeks, according to PFF. That ranks 31st out of 38 qualified quarterbacks.

In fact, Bortles has thrown five interceptions in his last two games – facing the San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans.

While Tennessee ranks toward the top of the league in sacks. The 49ers do not. They rank near the Bills. San Francisco has 30 sacks and Buffalo has 27.

Not to mention, Buffalo’s secondary is one of the best in the league when it comes to causing turnovers.

Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer each rank fifth in the league with five interceptions while Tre’Davious White ranks 12th in interceptions with four and leads the league in fourth-quarter forced turnovers with five.

Buffalo has the ability to capitalize on Bortles mistakes.

Facing one of the best, if not the best defense in the league, the Bills must score first.

Not only does Buffalo struggle from playing behind, it’ll force Blake Bortles to go into attacking mode. Bottles in attack mode means a higher chance of mistakes.

"“Just making him feel like he knows what’s going on and having somebody buzzing out,” Preston Brown said, via BNBlitz.com. “Have (end) Jerry (Hughes) pop out and play something (else). I think that confuses him a lot, when people shift from different positions where he thinks they’re not supposed to be. “Sometimes you show two-high, show two-high and then all of a sudden, boom, he gets a guy on a post and you’re showing it’s a blitz. That’s what we’re trying to do the whole time, showing different things with the safeties because the safeties are a big key for the quarterback. And we’ve got two of the best safeties in the league, so they’ll be good at it.”"

It’s important to remember that the Bills are 5-1 when they score first this season.

Prediction: Bills 16-14

This just screams low-scoring affair.

The Jaguars have one of the league’s best defenses and Buffalo has been struggling on offense.

The Bills have one of the league’s best passing defenses and Jacksonville has Blake Bortles, who’s one of the league’s worst quarterbacks.

Something has to give.

Don’t be shocked if Buffalo scores a defensive touchdown and that proves to be the difference. There will be chances to pick off Bortles. The Bills just have to make the most of their opportunities.

LeSean McCoy’s availability’s is another heavy factor. The Pro Bowl running back was a limited participant in Friday’s practice, but reports say that McCoy is expected to play on Sunday.

"“The good thing about adversity and this team is that we’ve proved to be able to stay focused through the midst of whatever happens,” Tyrod Taylor said, via BuffaloBills.com. “We want the best for Shady. If he’s healthy, we want him absolutely to be out there playing and giving us his all. If he’s not, we have a tremendous group of guys in the backfield that would be able to step in and carry the load.”"

Kelvin Benjamin versus Jalen Ramsey is another interesting matchup.

The two former college teammates are facing off.

Can Benjamin get the best of the fellow Florida State alum and make a play or two? It would go along way.

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And don’t forget about Charles Clay.

Next: Who Was Snubbed in Pro Bowl Voting On Buffalo?

If Benjamin can’t break from Ramsey, Clay could have some opportunities over the middle. No Jacksonville linebacker has a pass coverage grade higher than 83, according to PFF.