Peterman gets the nod because Tyrod Taylor was set up to fail

McDermott puts Peterman behind the wheel

After reiterating that Tyrod Taylor would remain the starting quarterback for the Buffalo Bills, Coach Sean McDermott shocked the football world during his Wednesday morning press conference as he pulled a 180 and announced that rookie Nathan Peterman would get his first NFL start against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday.

The move follows the Bills’ worst two outings of the season and is another strong indication that management is ready to move on from Taylor following this season.

Taylor has a raw quarterback rating (QBR) of 53.6 on the year, although Sunday represented the worst game of his career as he had a putrid 29.7 QBR. Peterman replaced Taylor late in the 4^th quarter and was a noticeable improvement as he was 7 for 10 for 79 yards and a touchdown, and had a 95.2 QBR, although he was under center for just two drives and was against a softened Saints defense during “garbage time.”

Giving Peterman the nod is yet another bold move by Coach McDermott and General Manager Brandon Beane and is particularly risky as the Bills remain in the final playoff spot through this season’s 9 games. Because Offensive Coordinator Rick Dennison appears to be unwilling to change his scheme, the move makes sense. However, I can’t help but to empathize with Taylor as he was never used properly under Dennison and was set up to fail.

Tyrod being denied the run has hurt overall offense

As watchful Bills fans, we’ve come to understand that Taylor is a mediocre passer, but elite runner through his two and a half seasons as commander and chief of the offense.

According to PlayerProfiler.com, Taylor is in the 99^th, 97^th, and 98^th percentiles among quarterbacks for his 40 yard dash, burst (measures vertical and broad jump), and agility score, respectively, yet he is averaging his lowest rush attempts per game this season under Dennison.

To illustrate how Taylor’s effectiveness has deteriorated as his rush attempts fall, consider the following data obtained from Pro Football Reference and ESPN.com:

• 2015: QBR= 66.3 (8th), passer rating= 99.4 (8th), Rush att. per game= 7.43
• 2016: QBR=62.4 (9th), passer rating= 89.7 (18th), Rush att. per game= 6.33
• 2017: QBR= 51.2 (19th), passer rating= 91.4 (16th), Rush att. per game= 5.89

Note: QBR shown is total, not raw, the difference being total is adjusted for quality of defenses faced

And, not surprisingly, the Bills’ offense as a whole has followed suit:

• 2015: yards/game= 360.9 (13th), rush yards/game= 152 (1st), total points= 379 (12th)
• 2016: yards/game= 354.1 (16th), rush yards/game= 164.4 (1st), total points= 399 (10th)
• 2017: yards/game= 292 (28th), rush yards/game= 111.6 (15th), total points= 184 (21st)

To fully comprehend the argument that Tyrod Taylor can be effective as a quarterback, it is helpful to understand the differences between the two most common statistical evaluations of the position, those being the traditional “passer rating” and the “Total QBR.” The latter was developed by ESPN back in 2011 and was designed to be a more comprehensive indication of a quarterback’s impact on a game.

The passer rating, which remains the official statistic for measuring quarterbacks’ performances, is based on a simple formula that measures a quarterback as only a passer and takes into account completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions per attempt.

However, it ignores the other ways in which a quarterback contributes to their team winning or losing including rushing, fumbles, sacks taken/avoided, pre-snap penalties, defenses faced, and game context among other factors which the QBR formula understands and alters the rating accordingly.

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In a nut shell, QBR assigns a point value to each play based on its outcome and adjusts how much credit the quarterback should get whether the play was good or bad for the offense.

For example, a quarterback would get, say, 5 points for throwing a ball while under duress that carries 25 yards into a small window during the 2^nd quarter of a competitive game.

However, he may only get 2 points for a 25 yard screen pass thrown under no pressure in which the receiver ran 24 yards after the catch during the 4^th quarter of a blowout.

The rational for this is that in the first scenario, the play’s outcome was much more dependent on the skill of the quarterback and was at a critical point in the game whereas in the second, the quarterback simply dumped the ball off during “garbage time” and the ball carrier did most of the work. The passer rating would treat these two plays equally in assigning the quarterback credit while QBR distributes it among the players involved accordingly.

This process occurs for each play and is averaged over all the plays in which the quarterback was involved (so, not hand offs to backs) and is transferred to a 100 point scale with 50 considered an average performance.

By no means is a QBR the end all be all in terms of evaluating a quarterback, however, I think it’s probably the best single statistic currently available despite it incorporating a certain level of subjectivity. (ex. Who is to say how much duress the QB was actually under during that particular play?)

For a more comprehensive explanation of QBR, see the following link.

Tyrod led a solid offense the past two seasons

Even with his limitations as a passer, Taylor helped the Bills offense to finish in roughly the top third of the league in total points scored in 2015 and 2016 which was reflected by his QBR that finished in the top 10 among quarterbacks in both years.

In 2015, Taylor had a better QBR and the same passer rating as Cam Newton, the year in which he won MVP and took the Panthers to the Super Bowl. So, although “good quarterbacks” have traditionally been thought of as pocket passers, the mobile alternative that Taylor and Newton represent has been proven to work if they have a decent supporting cast and a respectable defense.

Let’s not forget that the Buffalo defense was dismantled by the Ryan brothers in those two years after Jim Schwartz had constructed an elite unit which certainly didn’t help Taylor’s cause.

It is no coincidence then that because Taylor’s rushing attempts have been down this year that his QBR has plummeted and the offense as a whole has struggled underneath Dennison. I also don’t think it’s coincidental that Taylor’s best year as a passer (according to his QBR and passer rating) was also the year he averaged the most rushing attempts per game. The numbers may suggest that the threat of him taking off on the run forces defenses to spy Taylor and actually helps him as a passer.

Peterman under center is probably the right move

Unfortunately for Taylor, Dennison has proven to be rigid and is committed to using his offensive scheme which demands a traditional 3 step drop pocket passer who can make reads and hit receivers in stride over the middle.

This may very well prove to be a more effective form of offense than what is possible with Taylor’s style of play, but it is evident the two do not go together. Taylor is being asked to do something he’s proven to be incapable of which has driven him to be particularly unsuccessful this season.

Though it was only a small sample size in the Saints game, Peterman showed that he appears to be the better fit for the offensive scheme, so I agree with the move as it gives the Bills the best chance to win if Dennison won’t alter his play design.

Additionally, since management has made it clear they want to move on from Taylor, Peterman’s performance will help answer some questions on how to spend picks in the upcoming draft.

However, should Peterman be worse than Taylor for whatever reason, it’ll certainly make Beane and McDermott look foolish for sabotaging the Bills’ chances of making the postseason for the first time in 18 years. (And because the run defense has been horrendous since the Marcell Dareus trade)

I’m rooting for Peterman to succeed and I think he’s the Bills’ best chance for success in Dennison’s scheme. However, I do feel bad that Taylor was put in the situation that he was. It was evident that the coaching staff never had confidence in him despite saying otherwise.

I also respect him for being a true pro and handling all this with class which shows the type of person he is and is why his team made him a captain. As such, I hope his benching does not disrupt the locker room too much either.

I am fearful, for the Bills’ sake, that Tyrod will eventually be successful for a team who is committed to utilizing his strengths, won’t force him into being a prototypical pocket gunslinger, and will give him a decent supporting cast.

Next: Sean McDermott knows something about the QB situation that we don’t

Taylor can be effective enough to be a legitimate starting NFL quarterback if he has plays designed around him and a stout defense.