It will cost a ton for Buffalo Bills to move up in 2018 NFL Draft

Dennis Moody

PHILADELPHIA, PA - AUGUST 17: Tyrod Taylor

Buffalo Bills to move up in 2018 NFL Draft — PHILADELPHIA, PA – AUGUST 17: Tyrod Taylor

The Buffalo Bills recently stocked up on some draft picks but it will cost them an arm and a leg to move up in the 2018 NFL Draft.

The Buffalo Bills recently made some bold moves when they traded Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby in separate trades during training camp. Those trades brought in Jordan Matthews and E.J. Gaines in addition to two draft picks for the 2018 NFL Draft giving Buffalo two selections in each of the first three rounds.

The consensus is that if the Bills don’t see progress from Tyrod Taylor this season, they may use those draft picks to move up in the draft in order to target a potential franchise quarterback. While Buffalo has the ammo to move up, fans might not be happy with what the team would need to give up to make a trade happen.

There are four quarterbacks who are considered part of the top-tier in next year’s NFL draft, so the Bills would need to move up into the top four picks in order to guarantee that they will get one of them. Those quarterbacks are Sam Darnold (USC), Josh Allen (Wyoming), 2016 Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson (Louisville), and Josh Rosen (UCLA). There are also rumors that Darnold may not come out so the Bills might need to land in the top 3 if that happens.

First, let’s dig into what other teams parted with to move up to the top of the draft to see what the cost could be. After that, we will discuss exactly which draft picks the Bills would most likely have to give up to move up to the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th spots in the 2018 NFL Draft. The trades we will examine are the trades for Mitch Trubisky, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz and Robert Griffin III.

I chose to exclude the Blaine Gabbert trade since he was taken 10th overall and it wasn’t at the top of the draft. The other recent trade ignored was when the Jets moved up to No. 6 to get Mark Sanchez. In that trade, they traded many players in addition to draft picks which made it impossible to quantify on a points system. Let’s start with the most recent trade for Mitch Trubisky. If you don’t care about any of the previous trades you can skip straight to the second to last slide which will tell you what the Bills will have to give up.

Breaking down the Mitch Trubisky trade

Let’s start with the shocking trade from the 2017 NFL Draft when the Chicago Bears traded up from No. 3 overall to No. 2 overall with the San Francisco 49ers in order to draft quarterback Mitch Trubisky from the University of North Carolina.

In order to move up one slot, the Bears also gave the 49ers a 2017 3rd round pick (67 overall), a 2017 4th round pick (111 overall) and a 2018 third round pick. Despite looking lopsided, this trade is actually reasonably fair if you subscribe to Pro Football Talk’s draft pick value system.

The Bears received the No. 2 overall pick which is worth 2,600 points in that system. The 49ers received the 3rd overall pick (2,200 pts), 67th overall pick (255 pts), 111th overall pick (72 pts) and a 2018 third round pick. Since we don’t know where the Bears will pick in 2018 we can’t know the exact points yet but the range for the 2nd round is 265 points to 116 points.

That means the range the 49ers would have received back can be as high as 2,792 or as low as 2,643 points. Both figures are reasonably close to the 2,600 points the Bears received so despite most people’s perceptions that the Bears gave up too much, it actually wasn’t nearly as bad as it seemed at first glance.

Next, let’s move to the 2016 NFL Draft where there were two trades to move into the top of the 1st round. Let’s start with the Jared Goff trade.

Breaking down the Jared Goff trade

The first deal that happened in the 2016 NFL Draft was between the Tennessee Titans and the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams held the 15th pick and were looking to move up to No. 1 overall to select Jared Goff out of the University of California. In order to move up 14 spots to No. 1, they had to give up a plethora of picks.

In this trade, the Rams received the Titans No. 1 overall pick in 2016 as well as their 4th round pick (113 overall) and 6th round pick (177 overall) in 2016. In exchange, the Titans received the Rams No. 15 overall pick, two second round picks at No. 43 and No. 46 overall and the Rams No. 76 overall third round pick in 2016. In addition, they received two 2017 draft picks from the Rams in 2017 in the 1st and 3rd rounds.

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The Titans received a 2016 No .15 overall (1,050 pts), 2016 No. 43 overall (470 pts), 2016 No. 45 overall (450 pts), 2016 No. 76 overall (210 pts), 2017 No. 5 overall (1,700 pts), 2017 No. 100 overall (100 pts).

The Rams got 2016 No. 1 overall (3,000 pts), 2016 No. 133 overall (68 pts) and 2016 No. 177 overall (20.6 pts).

According to the draft pick trade value chart, the Titans ended up getting the better value out of this deal. That’s because the Rams had a bad 2016 season finishing 4-12 which gave the Titans the No. 5 pick in the first and third rounds in 2017. The Titans received 3,980 points worth of picks while the Rams received 3,088.6 points in return.

The Titans won the first big trade of the 2016 NFL Draft by a considerable margin. Let’s take a look at who won when the Eagles traded up to draft Carson Wentz on the next slide.

Breaking down the Carson Wentz trade

After the Rams made their move for the No. 1 overall pick in 2016, the Philadelphia Eagles followed up by trading with the Cleveland Browns to move up six slots from No. 8 overall to No. 2 overall.

The trade involved the Eagles receiving the No. 2 overall pick in 2016 and the Browns 2017 fourth round pick. That pick ended up being at No. 139 overall. The Browns received the Eagles 2016 1st round (8th overall), 3rd round (77th overall) and 4th round (100 overall) draft picks. They also received two future picks which included their 1st round pick in 2017 and a second round pick in 2018. The 2017 first round pick ended up being No. 12 overall.

The Browns received a 2016 No. 8 overall pick (1,400 pts), 2016 No. 77 overall pick (205 pts), 2016 No. 100 overall pick (100 pts), 2017. No 12 overall pick (1,200 pts) and a 2018 2nd round pick which can range anywhere from 580 points to 270 points meaning the Browns total points could be anywhere from a maximum of 3,485 to a minimum of 3,175. The Eagles meanwhile only received 2,636.50 points with the 2016 No. 2 overall pick getting them 2,600 points and the 2017 No. 139 overall pick getting them 36.5 points.

The Browns ended up getting the better part of this deal according to the draft trade chart. That wasn’t the most one sided trade to move up in the draft though. That trade belongs to the Washington Redskins. Let’s examine just how bad it was on the next slide.

Breaking down the Robert Griffin III trade

In 2012 the Washington Redskins decided that Robert Griffin III was their man and they paid a king’s ransom in order to move up to draft him at No. 2 overall after the Indianapolis Colts selected Andrew Luck with the No. 1 overall pick. The trade would not end up panning out for Washington based on the fact that their current quarterback, Kirk Cousins, was drafted in the fourth round in that same year.

Washington received the second overall pick in this trade which is worth 2,600 points based on the draft pick trade value chart. The Rams received much more back by getting 5,490 points worth of draft picks. Part of the reason it was so lopsided was that in 2013 Washington went 3-13 which awarded the Rams the second overall pick in 2014.

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In total, the Rams received 2012 first and second round picks at No. 6 and No. 39 overall respectively. They also received a 2013 first round pick which ended up being 22 overall and their 2014 first round pick ended up being No. 2 overall.

The 2014 No. 2 pick is worth 2,600 points, the 2012 No. 6 pick is worth 1,600 points, the 2013 No. 22 overall pick is worth 780 points and the 2012 No. 39 overall pick was worth 510 points.

Washington gave up way too much value in this trade and on top of that, RG III did not pan out for them.

Buffalo Bills fans should take note of this lesson. While the Bills may have the ammo to move up to the top of the draft, in no way does that guarantee them that they will be successful with their selection. Now that we’ve examined the most recent trades in the draft for a franchise quarterback, we will project which of the Bills picks in 2018 they would need to give up to move up to No. 1, 2, 3 or 4 in the draft on the next slide.

The cost of moving up to the top four draft picks for the Buffalo Bills

To recap, the Bears moved up 1 spot from No. 3 to No. 2. The price of doing that cost them two third round picks and a fourth round pick. The Rams moved up 14 spots from No. 15 to No. 1 and received a 4th round pick and a 6th round pick. In order to do that they had to forfeit an additional 1st round pick, two second round picks and two third round picks.

In order to move up six slots from No. 8 to No. 2 the Eagles gave up an additional 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick in addition to swapping 4th round picks with the Browns. Meanwhile, Washington moved up four spots from No. 6 to No. 2 and traded away two additional first round picks and a second round pick.

Now that we have seen what other teams have traded to move up it seems pretty clear the Bills will have to part with some serious draft capital if they want to move up in 2018. In order to project the value of what their picks will be worth, I made the assumption that the Bills, Eagles, Rams and Chiefs will all draft in the same order next year.

Buffalo Bills

For the Bills to move up to the No. 1 overall spot in 2018, they would need to send whatever team holds the pick at least 3,000 points worth of draft picks if not more. In order to do that they could give up their No. 10 overall 1st round pick, No. 27 overall 1st round pick from the Chiefs, No. 37 overall 2nd round pick from the Rams and the No. 42 overall 2nd round pick of the Bills. In total this would equal 2,990 points worth of reciprocal picks. This means the cost of moving up to No. 1 would be at least two first round picks and two second round picks.

If the Bills want to move up to the No. 2 overall spot in 2018, they would need to send whatever team holds the pick at least 2,600 points worth of draft picks. In order to do that they could give up their No. 10 overall 1st round pick, No. 27 overall 1st round pick from the Chiefs, No. 37 overall 2nd round pick from the Rams and the No. 106 overall 4th round pick of Buffalo. In total this would equal 2,592 points worth of reciprocal picks. To move to No. 2 overall the Bills would give up two 1st round picks, a 2nd round pick and a 4th round pick.

To move up to the No. 3 overall in 2018 they would need to send whatever team holds that pick at least 2,200 points worth of draft picks. In order to do that they could give up their No. 10 overall 1st round pick, No. 27 overall 1st round pick from the Chiefs, and the No. 74 overall 3rd round pick of Buffalo. In total giving up two 1st round picks and a 3rd round pick would equal 2,200 points based on the draft pick trade value chart.

Lastly, for the Bills to move up to the No. 4 overall spot in 2018, they would need to send whatever team holds that pick at least 1,800 points worth of draft picks. To do that they could give up their No. 10 overall 1st round pick, the No. 42 overall 2nd round pick of Buffalo and the No. 165 overall fifth round pick from the Rams. In total this would equal 1,805.4 points worth of reciprocal picks. This means to move up to No. 4 the Bills would be giving up a 1st, 2nd and 5th round pick. However, based on prior trades it would probably be even more than this.

This analysis shows that Buffalo certainly has the draft capital to move up to any spot they wish in next years draft should they choose to do so. The real question becomes is it worth that cost when the player drafted could just as easily be a bust as they could be a franchise quarterback. Also, keep in mind that these estimates for the overall picks will change once the compensatory picks are figured out. This will push many of Buffalo’s draft spots lower meaning they will need to give up more than this.

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So now that you have a clearer picture of what the Buffalo Bills would need to give up next year, do you still think it would be worth it to take a chance on a franchise quarterback?

Dennis Moody

Born in Long Island, New York. The youngest of ten kids with nine boys and one girl. Became a Bills fan at age 6 in 1989 to annoy all my older brothers who root for other AFC East teams. I've been a Bills addict ever since.